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Hi Dimi
My figures are old as I said so thanks for the update.
On the basis of this I’ve sold half my holding at 55.5p and happy to wait now either way.
The good news for everybody else is the share will probably now take a big bounce up
Hi Dimi
Thanks for you kind words the other day. I’m not on the BB as much so it takes me a while to catch up. It was nice
It sounds like a good idea but, apart from work, what pushed me to the fringes was the WG thing. I feel a debt of gratitude to him for introducing me to e-waves and the BB is not the same.
For this reason and the other general unpleasantness that crops up periodically I’m not sure how it could work and how we could involve WG. We did have some computer types on here for a while maybe they have solutions.
On the wave note I am still uncomfortable with the management of sentiment of this share as I mentioned at the weekend. I think this is being walked down deliberately but I don’t know why. I have been in the red since 8/6 and I am even more so since I had to sell some. I am thinking of copying you and others and selling to buy back cheaper.
I haven’t been keeping up with my charts for over a month now but I did have a possible maximum correction to 42p.(fib 261.8%) What is your maximum correction at the moment? I’m trying to see if in this worst case scenario I can reduce my loses without spending more. For anyone else getting jumpy about reading this, this is not a prediction but a technical hypothetical I am asking about. I know your answer will also not be a prediction but it will give me parameters to work within and of course the decision is mine. But Roxy is right it becomes demoralising seeing unremitting red for weeks and months on end
Thanks in advance
Take care Dimi and I wish you everything you wish yourself
Pantarei
33 I agree with the new set at the bridge.
Where were they when we were in the 2nd division and skint?
They’ll be away again at the first sign of trouble
Dunnie I said or at least meant to say manipulates SENTIMENT not sp and I was just echoing others as I know little about the man
33 I’m with you re Stroll. I want to be here for good like I wanted to be with Chelsea shares and just take the dividend when there is one but I will definitely start to get jumpy in the new year if we are still in the 49-69 range by Feb
33 I don’t think any of that as I don’t think Stroll can afford it on his own.
Do I think Stroll and all his mates together will buy it out? ... possibly as long as there’s money to be made and they’re all petrol heads
Further If Stroll and his mates make a roaring success of it which we all believe he will then he won’t have screwed anyone and his legacy will get him knighted And his kids will bask in the glory
You’re a Chelsea fan like me and I had shares in Chelsea too for similar reasons that I hold AML. Did I think Ken Bates would sell me down the river?... possibly. did I think Abramhovic would get my shares?.. never. Did I think I would have to part with them for 23p or whatever he gave me (plus a signed photo of the Team )? Over my dead body! But it all happened
It’s neither silly nor paranoid but just exploring a possibility which a few others are thinking about judging by the responses.
If you can’t answer maybe others can But thanks for trying
Hi Nevas
Anything more specific like a formula?
I had to cash in some because like you I needed some cash. I had to do it at a bad time and now my average is 86p. I’m not bothered with that as this is easily £2+ long term in my book.
But if the annual vwap is Manipulated Dow to 56p and he offers 56p plus 25% so 69 p I’m out of pocket and there’s nothing I can do about it
Even if he offers a 50% premium I’m losing
Any one with knowledge in how it actually works?
Very interesting debate so far
Nevas I agree nothing to send the share price up but Stroll would normally be making noises even bluff and bluster ...”very pleased with progress to date ....Moers making massive impact .... orders exceed expectations... blah blah blah “ but the silence is deafening. I would have expected something from Moers by now as well
Dunnieboy I agree the real fortunes are to be made in the stick market but stroll already has a real fortune. People with that kind of money don’t want to be restrained by rules and regs and small PIs pestering him with annoying questions. Maybe this is more a hobby/plaything and taking it private means he can have more fun with his new toy And we’re just subsidising that’s in the meantime
Dubbie I agree He could have taken a bigger stake ages ago but it would have cost him a lot more
Nevada’s says either way we make money and if that’s true I’m ok but I’m trying to understand how. That was the point of my vwap question which no one has addressed yet.
If the Average Vwap for The year is 55p is that what he offers? If so then I’m losing money . If not can some explain how the offer will be worked out please?
Hi all
I last posted 30/07 when the price was 54.35 so not a great deal of change there for us LTHs
I'm still hanging on very long term to a small holding and still catching up with the BB when I can.
Noahs's point about going private etc and WG missing shares keeps playing on my mind. When we last had the discussion the general consensus was that this would be at a premium to the annual SP/vwap so we would benefit anyway. So lets put the cat amongst the pigeons thus is a discussion board after all
As you know I am a waver. Waves are expressions of sentiment. Control the sentiment and you control the wave. We know that Stroll is great at media manipulation. The assumption seems to have been that he used this to improve shareholder value ... but manipulation can work both ways
I posted a rough calculation in July that the average VWAP from April to July was around 55p. August's brief rise would have made little impression on that.
The questions I am leading up to are
1) if the average VWAP could be manipulated to stay around the 55p -60p mark until March 2021 ( so for a whole year) what price would Stroll have to pay then to go private/buy out? I don't know the processes involved or the rules
2)What would that price equate to at his original buy in time given the subsequent dilutions?
3) what is the likelihood that this is Strolls plan given the "glass-half-empty" RNSs and the silence since? In such a scenario the slow release by investindustrial could be mutually beneficial
I have a great faith in WG's instincts and Noah seems to speak sense and back it up. AML could and should easily be 50% up from where we are. Stroll could have said and done a lot more to add shareholder value over the last month even just passion and guff. He certainly did about the F1 cheating accusations.
Any considered thoughts welcome
Dimi don't forget the weekly waves .. they are the one's I follow as LTI
I think part of the difference is we are not declaring the level of wave at which we are at .. it is much easier when you see a chart such as MacRS. ( I agree with you btw where you are but I am zoomed out) I still waiting on the correction from 8/6 to resolve
Preefty
I agree and that's all I'm going on. The trouble is we know what the psychology is on this BB but this is not necessarily reflected in the wider market. We will know definitely that the outlook has changed if we get to mid sixties
Hi Dimi 33 Nevas BRL and other wavers ... and of course WG the one who introduced us all to it
I am taking more of a watching brief at the moment as the atmosphere on the BB has turned sour.
I agree we have what looks like the start of wave 3 but I'm not sure if the news yesterday was positive enough to get the required momentum. It certainly wasn't negative. Like DImi midi 60's will put the tin lid on it. Until then as I said previously we may meander between 42 and 62.
High point of wave 1 was mid 80's so when we get going we should easily go beyond that. I'm not combining with other chart methods so I don't overlay timescales but if your a serious LTH that's not such an issue as if you are a day trader or have impatience issues.
GLA
Well said Roxy
We seem to have an outbreak of self-righteousness today.
Let s/he who is without sin cast the first stone
I will miss WG if he stays away.
If he is as pitiful as some make him out to be then they should take pity and show compassion rather than taunt. Otherwise they seem similar to the people who think it’s great fun to urinate on tramps and set fire to their sleeping bags.
If he is not as pitiful as they make out then it seems like ganging up or bullying.
Either way they do themselves no favours and demean this BB
Good night and God bless
Dimi I don't want to be right but even if I am you don't need to worry because C WILL finish. We all want it soon. I think we will probably go below 47.3 next week at some point but so what I am not here for a quick profit, I don't need my share money next week and I can afford to wait for the next big wave. I'm in the red too at 62p
I don't feel like we are in a wider upward trend as there is no strong upward sentiment yet ... I believe C is just resolving itself awaiting positive news.
You believe in waves too so you know it WILL rise we just don't know . Everything comes to he who waits (and she). Others make me more worried about Stroll!
JTtrader not sell up ..delist/go private this is what some have been saying I don't know the mechanics
Noah do you understand delisting/going private/takeovers and VWAP vs SP?
33 Dimi
I want to avoid it too but I don't know enough about delisting to understand if it is possible that Stoll can buy us out cheap delist and then sell for much more. Does any one else. It would be odd if the VWAP was 70p but the SP was 1.10 that we could be offered less than 1.10. May be someone else will know. I hope they say I haven't understood properly.
I'm still zoomed out on waves (monthly) ... still on C ... still meandering between 40 and 65
Deedo RE: June Offload
The question of Stroll delisting/TO and him keeping all the profits for him and his pals keeps coming up and bothers me.
It was dismissed before because somebody mentioned that the price would be offered on the average VWAP for the previous 12 months. If I understood it correctly.
There is talk of bad news next week and improvements in August and a slow rise to hopefully £1.
Others have mentioned that Stroll is very calculating and good at manipulating news/sp etc
I started thinking that if this was part of a cunning plan hinted at by WG and Noah what future date would the VWAP be better for such a plan.
Originally I worked out the average VWAP from 14th April is 54.85p. This was around the low point for the share price. We are 14 weeks on from that and it and will probably be below that from the rest of the month. If we go back to the 1st April the average VWAP is 55.87. You'll see why below
Lets say for arguments sake the average VWAP from 1/4 - 31/7 is 55p. That's already 4 months.
We all know the next few months will be difficult and we are all prepared for that. Many have said that Q1 2021 will be when the profits start rolling in. Lets say there is a gradual and even rise to 31/3 2021 to £1.10 we would all be happy with that. If we average that out over 8 months that is a slow rise from 50 p (current SP) - 1.10p we get an average VWAP of 80p over those 8 months. This will only bring the average VWAP from 1/4/20 - 31/3/21 to 70.p. Even if we end up at £1.50 on 31/3/21 we only end up with a 12 month VWAP 83.3p. (Can others just check the figures as I'm also not sure if dilution affects things)
Both 70p and 83p seem a snip to me even with a premium (and I believe these are optimistic price targets for March 2021. If Stroll is a s good as others say at manipulating he can chose to down play news for as long as it suits and therefore the sp and VWAP pay a lot less at the end.
F tAoD I am LTH and I am just trying to think through what others say and make sense of dodgy deals. I don't know enough about it to know if this is how it works and appreciate other insights
The reason I went back to 1st April is that I thought when would be a cunning time to make a dodgy decision that is before the start of the Formula 1 season and when the markets are closed. Easter Sunday 2021 is the 4th April so Good Friday is 2nd April. An RNS 5pm on 1st of April 2021 would be difficult to react to
Have I understood the process correctly? Is this how it works and is it a possibility? Thoughts please
Even if my sums are wrong do you get the point I am trying to make which is could/would Stroll manipulate the news/price for 8 more months to get all of the bad news out of the way and just as the profits roll in dump us for a bargain basement price?
Noah
Thanks for your reply as always.
I agree with most of what you say
I don't think we will get any positive news/RNS until Moers is in place and any other new board members too. Then the "new team" can take all the credit and the good feelings about it. Some on this BB say it would be clever to release good news at the British GP in which case I think it would be the second one - 7th Aug not 31 July - as Moers can officially be there and take credit for quick action/turnaround. Because of that I expect a drop after 29th. We don't need bad news around the 29th to drop the SP just no new news or unexpected good news. If this comes in August the new team can then take the credit for the SP rise in August.
If Stroll wants to keep everything and takes us private as you fear he only has another 8 months at this price to get a bargain as we have been well below 60p since March except for three weeks in June and this will have little effect on 12 month VWAP if we remain below 60p . If I get time or if someone else can do it I would be interested in the average VWAP from 16 March until today.
Like you I am LTH
Thanks again Noah
Dimi
You are not seeing ghosts. What you see is there but is only one interpretation of an unfolding pattern.... You have seen a tail, four legs and whiskers and you like cats so you are convinced it is a cat ... But it could be a dog. Do you see what I mean? I am not saying it isn't a cat but I need to hear a meow or a bark? This is what is holding me back at the moment.
The difficulty with EW is spotting the pattern before it forms the pattern and I'm just not that good yet.
I can see your reading but waves are motivated by sentiment/news as OZ keeps patiently saying SP doesn't go up and down itself and I haven't seen any yet. I also agree with your lowest active point. If the SP doesn't stay above 55p then in the absence of positive news we may go back to 51 or lower. And then we will know.
I am not using other charting methods as they lead me to prices and dates which creates straw men. I love Fibonacci as I have said before but WG has made me wary and my research tells me that Elliot was unaware of Fibonacci and others overlaid it. I keep an open mind .
Here's my view. We have only had news that has had non-positive effects (redundancies, placement, etc) over the past few weeks and have been in the doldrums. Until some very positive news comes along I think that is where we will stay.
If Stroll is as good at brand management as others say then no good news will come out until the redundancy situation is over and resolved as neutrally as possible. It is not ggo brand management to have a headline "workers sacked to fund playboy's hobby" etc. As 33 says the next AML buyers are looking for ethical companies or at least ethically promoted companies. I can't see that happening before the AGM. If all we get then is the (expected) good news then sentiment will continue to be not positive. We need unexpected good news which I am sure Stroll has and will release when the timing is most beneficial.
I will watch what unfolds today.