Dimi don't forget the weekly waves .. they are the one's I follow as LTI
I think part of the difference is we are not declaring the level of wave at which we are at .. it is much easier when you see a chart such as MacRS. ( I agree with you btw where you are but I am zoomed out) I still waiting on the correction from 8/6 to resolve
I agree and that's all I'm going on. The trouble is we know what the psychology is on this BB but this is not necessarily reflected in the wider market. We will know definitely that the outlook has changed if we get to mid sixties
Hi Dimi 33 Nevas BRL and other wavers ... and of course WG the one who introduced us all to it
I am taking more of a watching brief at the moment as the atmosphere on the BB has turned sour.
I agree we have what looks like the start of wave 3 but I'm not sure if the news yesterday was positive enough to get the required momentum. It certainly wasn't negative. Like DImi midi 60's will put the tin lid on it. Until then as I said previously we may meander between 42 and 62.
High point of wave 1 was mid 80's so when we get going we should easily go beyond that. I'm not combining with other chart methods so I don't overlay timescales but if your a serious LTH that's not such an issue as if you are a day trader or have impatience issues.
Well said Roxy
We seem to have an outbreak of self-righteousness today.
Let s/he who is without sin cast the first stone
I will miss WG if he stays away.
If he is as pitiful as some make him out to be then they should take pity and show compassion rather than taunt. Otherwise they seem similar to the people who think it’s great fun to urinate on tramps and set fire to their sleeping bags.
If he is not as pitiful as they make out then it seems like ganging up or bullying.
Either way they do themselves no favours and demean this BB
Good night and God bless
Thoughtful as ever.
You know I like your posts. My dilemma is I am LTH and happy to wait. I am happy to wait for SP to improve but not to wait for delisting if it happens. You are smarter than me I am new to investing and learning from many people here . I am not a professional investor and only started during lockdown and soon my business will go back to normal. I wanted to just leave a certain amount in AML when I return to work full time and just check every few months but I think I 'll need to check more often.
Keep in touch and keep posting
Dimi I don't want to be right but even if I am you don't need to worry because C WILL finish. We all want it soon. I think we will probably go below 47.3 next week at some point but so what I am not here for a quick profit, I don't need my share money next week and I can afford to wait for the next big wave. I'm in the red too at 62p
I don't feel like we are in a wider upward trend as there is no strong upward sentiment yet ... I believe C is just resolving itself awaiting positive news.
You believe in waves too so you know it WILL rise we just don't know . Everything comes to he who waits (and she). Others make me more worried about Stroll!
JTtrader not sell up ..delist/go private this is what some have been saying I don't know the mechanics
Noah do you understand delisting/going private/takeovers and VWAP vs SP?
I want to avoid it too but I don't know enough about delisting to understand if it is possible that Stoll can buy us out cheap delist and then sell for much more. Does any one else. It would be odd if the VWAP was 70p but the SP was 1.10 that we could be offered less than 1.10. May be someone else will know. I hope they say I haven't understood properly.
I'm still zoomed out on waves (monthly) ... still on C ... still meandering between 40 and 65
Deedo RE: June Offload
The question of Stroll delisting/TO and him keeping all the profits for him and his pals keeps coming up and bothers me.
It was dismissed before because somebody mentioned that the price would be offered on the average VWAP for the previous 12 months. If I understood it correctly.
There is talk of bad news next week and improvements in August and a slow rise to hopefully £1.
Others have mentioned that Stroll is very calculating and good at manipulating news/sp etc
I started thinking that if this was part of a cunning plan hinted at by WG and Noah what future date would the VWAP be better for such a plan.
Originally I worked out the average VWAP from 14th April is 54.85p. This was around the low point for the share price. We are 14 weeks on from that and it and will probably be below that from the rest of the month. If we go back to the 1st April the average VWAP is 55.87. You'll see why below
Lets say for arguments sake the average VWAP from 1/4 - 31/7 is 55p. That's already 4 months.
We all know the next few months will be difficult and we are all prepared for that. Many have said that Q1 2021 will be when the profits start rolling in. Lets say there is a gradual and even rise to 31/3 2021 to £1.10 we would all be happy with that. If we average that out over 8 months that is a slow rise from 50 p (current SP) - 1.10p we get an average VWAP of 80p over those 8 months. This will only bring the average VWAP from 1/4/20 - 31/3/21 to 70.p. Even if we end up at £1.50 on 31/3/21 we only end up with a 12 month VWAP 83.3p. (Can others just check the figures as I'm also not sure if dilution affects things)
Both 70p and 83p seem a snip to me even with a premium (and I believe these are optimistic price targets for March 2021. If Stroll is a s good as others say at manipulating he can chose to down play news for as long as it suits and therefore the sp and VWAP pay a lot less at the end.
F tAoD I am LTH and I am just trying to think through what others say and make sense of dodgy deals. I don't know enough about it to know if this is how it works and appreciate other insights
The reason I went back to 1st April is that I thought when would be a cunning time to make a dodgy decision that is before the start of the Formula 1 season and when the markets are closed. Easter Sunday 2021 is the 4th April so Good Friday is 2nd April. An RNS 5pm on 1st of April 2021 would be difficult to react to
Have I understood the process correctly? Is this how it works and is it a possibility? Thoughts please
Even if my sums are wrong do you get the point I am trying to make which is could/would Stroll manipulate the news/price for 8 more months to get all of the bad news out of the way and just as the profits roll in dump us for a bargain basement price?
Thanks for your reply as always.
I agree with most of what you say
I don't think we will get any positive news/RNS until Moers is in place and any other new board members too. Then the "new team" can take all the credit and the good feelings about it. Some on this BB say it would be clever to release good news at the British GP in which case I think it would be the second one - 7th Aug not 31 July - as Moers can officially be there and take credit for quick action/turnaround. Because of that I expect a drop after 29th. We don't need bad news around the 29th to drop the SP just no new news or unexpected good news. If this comes in August the new team can then take the credit for the SP rise in August.
If Stroll wants to keep everything and takes us private as you fear he only has another 8 months at this price to get a bargain as we have been well below 60p since March except for three weeks in June and this will have little effect on 12 month VWAP if we remain below 60p . If I get time or if someone else can do it I would be interested in the average VWAP from 16 March until today.
Like you I am LTH
Thanks again Noah
You are not seeing ghosts. What you see is there but is only one interpretation of an unfolding pattern.... You have seen a tail, four legs and whiskers and you like cats so you are convinced it is a cat ... But it could be a dog. Do you see what I mean? I am not saying it isn't a cat but I need to hear a meow or a bark? This is what is holding me back at the moment.
The difficulty with EW is spotting the pattern before it forms the pattern and I'm just not that good yet.
I can see your reading but waves are motivated by sentiment/news as OZ keeps patiently saying SP doesn't go up and down itself and I haven't seen any yet. I also agree with your lowest active point. If the SP doesn't stay above 55p then in the absence of positive news we may go back to 51 or lower. And then we will know.
I am not using other charting methods as they lead me to prices and dates which creates straw men. I love Fibonacci as I have said before but WG has made me wary and my research tells me that Elliot was unaware of Fibonacci and others overlaid it. I keep an open mind .
Here's my view. We have only had news that has had non-positive effects (redundancies, placement, etc) over the past few weeks and have been in the doldrums. Until some very positive news comes along I think that is where we will stay.
If Stroll is as good at brand management as others say then no good news will come out until the redundancy situation is over and resolved as neutrally as possible. It is not ggo brand management to have a headline "workers sacked to fund playboy's hobby" etc. As 33 says the next AML buyers are looking for ethical companies or at least ethically promoted companies. I can't see that happening before the AGM. If all we get then is the (expected) good news then sentiment will continue to be not positive. We need unexpected good news which I am sure Stroll has and will release when the timing is most beneficial.
I will watch what unfolds today.
WG you've nailed me in one.
I'm far too cautious. With the Dummy +500 account I was fearless.
I am improving with real money .... but too slowly.
Will take all on board WG and thank you for your input,concern and your time - ALWAYS APPRECIATED.
Maybe I'll have a stiff Highland Park before the off tomorrow ... I'll let you know what colour my Y-fronts are at 4:30 pm .
On another point can we stop Italian bashing. Knock individuals ...Briatore etc if you want.
AML without Italian design would be a sardine tin in comparison. All the classics are Italian designs Carrozzeria ..Zagato ...
I was 42p got carried away in the 70's and 80's thinking it would never stop and was up to 76p. Now thank to quality posters here I learned how to lower average now sitting on 62p and looking to lower to 50p if opportunities arise.
BRL I agree it got a bit complicated after 5 but I have put this down to a complex corrective wave. Look at the link below and you will see they can get quite complicated.
I have not studied these enough to be confident about them but in my book we are about to start a new wave. The waves should work all the time even during manipulation as the bots are programmed by humans.
It looked and felt like we finished C and had already started the new wave on Friday but there was no sentiment/news to support it. If you go back to Friday's Board you will see a number of suggestions .. battery factory next door, Vettel signing, "whispers" but nothing concrete enough. I thought that there might be an RNS today or something to back up the "whispers" but nothing came but it might yet. Until that news/sentiment I am reluctant to say we have moved on from C. Of course that is in the time scale I am working to . There have been lots of smaller EW within the retracement and WG and others has been trading on them to top up etc but my eye isn't good enough to spot them and my pockets aren't deep enough to get it badly wrong.
As a said before when a bird spotter gets good they don't need to see the whole bird but just a feather or glimpse of half a beak and they know. That's the point we need to get to and unfortunately that is just putting the hours in.
BRL I think I see waves because I want to too ... It' s just like bird spotting etc. To begin with all you see is birds ... then you pick out species .... then subspecies etc. it does take hours of practice which I just need to put in. That's why I went with Dimi's projection rather than my own. Did you compare my post to the AML share price and did it agree with your reading?
As I mentioned in my reply on Sunday to WG I had a +500 dummy account where you play with pretend money. You should try it. When its not real money you don't have the distraction of being over cautious or too cavalier.
I seemed to make better decisions that way. But when you using real money I get the jitters.
I am now practising with small amounts of money on random shares mentioned on the BB and I found that is a good half way house. I'm making lots of mistakes but improving. I read somewhere that it is easier for beginners to trade on impulse waves 1-5 as they are more regular than A-C so that is what I do. I wanted to try it on SNG today but it was going too fast (100% - 500%) for me to think quickly enough and the unit price was too high so I bottled it but if you have a look at it it is nice and wavey upwards
I hope that helps
Dimi I went with you and bought at 54.01 it seemed to have bottomed at 53.74 for the time being so we were both right so far and I may have missed out if I waited for 53p. I know WG says 52 but he's doing hourlies
BRL I believe we are always on an EW and the trick is to find out where we are. As each part of an EW is also an entire EW this is a great help in fixing where you are.
Rather than choke the board again with where I think we are If you click on my name and check out my post 27/6 15:05, amongst others you will see where I think we are but as you said ...beginners .