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Oil prices expected to reach $100 by May. Russia cutting production by 500,000 barrels a day. China demand increasing.

That's what I want to see, the 3D seismic results. Hoping for a big upgrade with some of the 8tcf of GIIP firming to a 2C resource.

Regarding the drill rig, ARA would have issued invitations to tender and offers would have been made but due to contractor negotiations and negotiations with the Tanzanian authorities the spud date slipped to March due to any rig being negotiated for not being available until then. That's how I read it.

It's time for the board to deliver. Everything is perfect for them. No excuses.

Looks like Mr Calgary is picking up more shares. Lot of unknown trades.

He's not going to get anything while we're at this low price. All that's happening is other fisherman are poaching the shares on the cheap. If he want's to land a sizeable fish then he's going to have to use a juicy bait and up the price.

Flurry of buys just before 3pm. Someone expecting a 3pm RNS ?

Nice to see this 10% up, although that bid has got to rise with it. Pressure is building for an increase. The brakes have got to come off soon.

With ARA's firepower I would assume they can get a rig from anywhere, therefore can find a rig from far and wide if need be. ie from another country and not be concerned by mobilisation and transport costs. That's if they really had to look far and wide. With their cash and 54 or 5 follow on wells, any rig contractor would see it as a good opportunity to get a rig to Ntorya and would probably do all they can to get it there. Having said that, if it's a particular rig that ARA want to use then it may be delayed, however I believe last year, drill rigs were not available due to the high gas prices, but that's eased off now and rigs are available.

It's all industry standard equipment for drilling well heads and FPSO. No special specs. As it's all industry standard, the FEED is standard and therefore costings. FID is straightforward based on industry standard practices for a FPSO projects. The whole point of the engineering study is that it confirms the fast track nature of production for the Darwin project and the quick payback. Until now, this has never been independently verified.

3D firmed up 8tcf

Looks like Mr Brimacombe is trying to get as many shares as he can. Went into auction to execute a trade of 150,000 at 2.5198p, and then bounced back to 2.7p bid. He's trying to get as many on the cheap. Don't give him any. Make him pay more.

There's a lot of Asian customers who are desperate for condensate and LPG. They would be interested in a field like Darwin just to get their hands on the condensate rather than buy on the open market. It would work out cheaper for them to front up the investment to get Darwin producing in return for a share of guaranteed supply of condensate and LPG.

This one
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Offshore-Oil-And-Gas-Is-Back-Baby.html

20dma (2.47p )has crossed the 50dma (2.42p) and the share price is nearing the 100dma (3.14p).

30% minimum. If a group of shareholders get together and own 30% then they can bid for the company and it must be minimum at the highest close of last 12 months, so 6.5-7p. However, Brimacombe could just be building a stake on behalf of a n oiler so that they can have some influence in votes for any offer for the company which I think you need 75% of shareholders to agree on.

The oil price is pumping up. Nearly $90. You can have two wells producing 25,000 barrels a day and have it all paid back in 12 months with free profit afterwards. Doesn't get any better than that. Should be a fight for this. Big oilers circling.

According to a recent engineering study, BOR can produce a steady 26,000 bopd from 2 wells and 1 gas injector, or up to 30,000 bopd. The production profile remains steady at 20, 25,000 bopd+ from 2 wells for 10 years. Drilling costs for 3 wells $200m and development capex $440m. Payback at $60 a barrel is 2 years, at $90 one year. throws off free cash thereafter for further production wells to 90,000 bopd.

https://www.bordersandsouthern.com/media/pdf/Darwin%20Update%20January%202023.pdf

Very much under the radar. AIM punters chasing other oilers with no assets and only hope value of a discovery.
BOR is the real deal with a monster discovery, quick payback and follow on look alikes equal to 7B barrels.
The thing that impresses me most in the latest presentation is the production profile for two wells and the slow decline. After 9 years of production, two wells are still producing 20,000 bopd.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Upstream-Spending-To-Rise-To-485-Billion-In-2023.html

most companies preferring to focus on the most advantaged “barrels’’ i.e. lower cost, lower carbon projects with faster timelines. NOCs, large independents and western majors are returning to advantaged offshore plays including the Guyana Basin, Brazil, Gulf of Mexico, North Sea and West Africa–the regions also expected to drive the lion’s share of non-OPEC growth.