Agreed 100% Kevin, that's mostly the reason I don't post as much as I used to. I'm still fully invested here and waiting for it all to play out but people need to do their own research. All the info is there in black & white, it just takes a little effort to read and decipher it.
If people were a little more diligent then we wouldn't have all the wailing and gnashing of teeth during the periods like we are going through now - I've been through this cycle multiple times where the market takes the p1ss and then suddenly we are off and running again.
The catalysts for the share price could be multiple this summer and the current value is more than underpinned by Havieron so I'm more than happy to wait and see what the eventual outcome will be.
It's a reasonably easy calculation to work out a figure for the value of the Havieron deposit using the same metric that Newcrest used in their MRE report and then use the most current volume calculations supplied by Hannam in their recent broker update.
The NSR that Newcrest use is inherently conservative considering that they use $1,400/oz Au & $3.6/lb Cu values. The NSR also allows for all deductions for mining, processing, transport and tolling charges to be included so should be reasonably safe to use.
The only unknown would be the level of NSR for the breccia in the bulk mining estimate - I have allowed for A$25. I think that would be about right as the grade would obviously be less and the transport, mining & processing costs would be higher but offsetting that would be the block cave costs per unit should be less than the costs for the SLC mining of the HGZ.
So we know the HGZ from the MRE is 54Mt @ A$50/t Hannam have estimated 474Mt for the breccia and lets say A$25/t
That comes to A$14,550,000,000 GGP's 30% share is A$4,365,000,000 or £2,444,400,000 which works out to about 58p/share
I would also stress that this is on current drilling and Hannam/Newcrest have specifically excluded the NW sulphide zone and we know that Newcrest are not doing 65km of growth drilling up to June 30th for the fun of it, and we are still open in pretty much all directions and at depth.
I believe that there is plenty of scope for the share price to rise in the coming months - the sentiment in gold and silver will turn (look at copper since the start of the year), Newcrest will continue to outperform against the metrics that they have set for the development of Havieron and if they find another HGZ on the 12 blocks of the JV as they hinted at then all bets are off.
I agree that AIM shares are not guaranteed and are certainly not for the faint-hearted but IMO, Greatland is as good an investment as you could possibly get on the AIM exchange, but please, please DYOR and only invest what you would be comfortable with losing because there are no guarantees.
Looking forward to 14/14 - hopefully next week - Paddy
I know the Paterson is where it is at for us at the moment but here's a timely reminder of how out Panorama tenement is also located smack bang in the middle of another of WA's ultra hot exploration areas.
@Darby - it's an option that can't be ruled out but only time will tell. I still think that taking it to production would be the real game changer and would give SD the ammunition that he would need to take GGP to the next level especially if we are looking at 25% profits from 5/6 million tonnes pa in the first few years.
They will continue to be converted from warrants to shares between now and August - any warrant holder who doesn't convert them would be absolutely mad as you are getting a 22.5p share for only 2.5p. It should be noted that when the warrants are converted in brings money into the GGP coffers.