The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
In reality there wasn't even a JV relationship in place before Shaun arrived on the scene. As Dip says NCM basically ran the JV in the manner that they saw fit and were happily steering us down the path where they would either take us over at the 5% valuation with maybe some small premium or they would happily have forced us into the position where we couldn't have made a cash call in which situation they would be entitled to take more chunks out of our share in Havieron to compensate.
Shaun had to grasp the nettle and build a team that was actually capable of becoming a credible partner in the JV - if that made the relationship go sour then so be it - NCM had a far worse fate in store for us, believe me.
So we've been on the journey from explorer to developer and are on the cusp of taking the next step to actually becoming a miner and a producer. Every single producer out there for the minnows to the global majors have all had to endure some pain to get to that stage - we have the worst of it behind us.
The deposit is world-class and we KNOW the next MRE upgrade is going to be of a similar uplift to the last one.
The DFS is going to look at a minimum of a 50% increase in material from the PFS study.
We have all the financing in place that we require to take us through to FCF with a sufficient buffer built in to allow for any surprises in the DFS.
We can leverage the existing Telfer plant and workforce to allow us a quicker than normal ramp-up to full production.
We can then leverage the FCF generated to exploit the exploration potential of our highly prospective assets in the immediate area.
I'm as frustrated as anybody - but look at the bigger picture, I can guarantee you that Shaun & his team are.
ATB - Paddy
New Sprott note just released.
https://sprott.com/media/6285/230316-ggp-scp-drilling.pdf
ATB Paddy
Flash Update Note from Canaccord released today.
https://twitter.com/paddygall1/status/1636353479592558597?s=20
"Significant resource upgrade increasingly likely in 2023" - you don't say.
ATB - Paddy
Shaun back in the studio today - still up in London a week after the Town Hall - Hmmmmm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UW7yKqzDbmM
ATB - Paddy
Havieron just keeps on giving - ehh.
The intercepts in the Eastern breccia will convert another big chunk of that from crackle to cemented breccia.
Nice hits quite high up in the Northern breccia to - gives Shaun more of that optionality that he talks about, whether to selectively take the higher grade sections or drop the whole lot in bulk mining operation, but it seems like the Northern breccia is shaping up nicely. Looking forward to when they get the UG drilling platforms in to in-fill drill the lot.
The drilling from here on in this year will concentrate on the SE crescent - probably at depth - to allow them to firm up the resource for the DFS. Expect some great intercepts as the months go by.
Decline is really motoring now - 10% ahead of the revised schedule and still accelerating. We now have a buffer if we run into any unforeseen issues and should hit the ore ahead of schedule if not.
Happy days - Paddy
Shaun confirmed to multiple people at the December Town Hall meeting that the bank debt was available for him to draw at that point so I assume the "Feasibility Study Criteria" has already been agreed as this is what they will be using to inform the studies that they are currently working on.
"Shaun was asked why he has not drawn down on the new bank debt facility and repaid NCN the $50m AUD plus interest as the NCM loan was on far more expensive terms than the new debt facility. He explained that he will not do this until the DFS is issued and the decision to mine has been formally stamped. His reason was that NCM cannot call in our existing loan, however if we repaid NCM by drawing down on the bank debt, however unlikely NCM could for example call a 12 month pause on the project and the banks could then technically call in their loan which GGP would not be in a position to repay, He would sooner pay higher interest terms to NCM on the existing loan until all of these issues have been formally agreed and stamped by both parties. At that point he will draw down on the bank debt facility and repay the NCM loan."
I'm more than confident that he has all eventualities covered.
ATB - Paddy
Gold hitting ATH's in sterling and Aussie dollars - Lovely jubbly.
https://uk.investing.com/currencies/xau-gbp
https://uk.investing.com/currencies/xau-aud
Where will it be in 12 months time when the ore is being hauled to Telfer - remember fully funded to production & every day the decline is getting >10m metres closer to the paydirt.
ATB - Paddy
Completely abolished??
That's massive, lots more cash going into people's SIPP's in the coming years. I assume the 25% tax free will still be available but now on an unlimited pension size. Definitely just WOW.
Hi everyone - thanks to all the posters who were at the Town Hall last night and have been able to update those of us who couldn't make it due to work and other commitments. By all accounts it was very positive and everyone has come away with a renewed sense of excitement and anticipation - completely justified IMO.
On the Telfer vs New Plant discussions then I would think the new plant would be a possibility whenever they are looking at the bulk mining which will be a few years down the track. It would make sense to do the maths to see what gains could be made from saving on the transportation costs and the efficiencies and ESG credits that a new plant would bring.
The initial quick start-up of the high grade 3mtpa will carry on into Telfer as planned IMO. This will be economic to extract, transport and process and will give us the fast start to the FCF that we all crave so much.
So much to look forward to over the coming months & years and I agree that Shaun is more than capable of guiding us through the minefield.
ATB - Paddy
Thanks @sandgrounded - I knew there was something about some right of first refusal expiring at the end of the farm-in.
So Newcrest retain that for as long as the JV is in operation, no big deal if we intend to keep Scallywag for ourselves, if not then then I'm quite glad that SD would be negotiating any potential deal this time. He has lamented some of the details in our current deal with NCM - I think he would do much better if we were to go down that route.
Cheers - Paddy
Wonderful news this morning - it was always a matter of time to vector in on the good stuff, still lots to get their teeth into from today's results but very, very encouraging.
Both Callum & the new exploration team, take a bow.
I think Wyloo will be very interested in these results today - suddenly their investment in GGP is looking even more & more like very good business.
GLA - Paddy
It's going to make their decision to NOT buy the 5% look very silly though Bamps, if suddenly Havieron data makes it into the public domain and it is as big as we all think and hope it will be....
I guess they can always make Sandeep into the scapegoat though.
Of course there would be dilution and additional debt but offset that with the current production at Telfer and then 100% of the production from Havieron in 12 months time and for the remainder of the lifetime of the mine.
If we had 100% of the mill at Telfer then it might open the possibility of blending the higher grade Havieron ore with the lower grades at Telfer to provide a medium grade mill feed that could make Telfer far more profitable than it currently is until higher rates could be achieved at Havieron.
They might decide to slim down the operation at Telfer and be happy with just the high grade from Havieron again until the higher rates could be achieved.
We could run the operation at Telfer far more efficiently (this is what SD has form for from his NS days) - it would give us huge flexibility and optionality, and if the gold / copper prices do rise then all that marginal ore at Telfer suddenly become very, very valuable again.
It's all about doing a deal that is accretive for shareholders, Shaun and the team will be all over this - as Sandgrounded says - let's wait and see what is to come but I for one am massively excited by the possibilities that are arising.
ATB - Paddy
I don't have a clue where the SP would go in the short term, but it would take a couple of years to prove up a gold deposit that size and by then we would have the FCF to carry on and develop it as a 100% standalone project.
That is the nirvana that Shaun will be aiming for - remember multi-asset, multi-billion pound company.
They have a JV with Imperial Metals at Red Chris but there was no mention of them either.
I wouldn't get too worried about it - Shaun will look after Greatland's interest in Havieron, he will have lots of champagne corks that will need popping in the near future IMO.
ATB - Paddy
Interestingly enough it would seem that our MD is out at the same conference in Miami this week although he doesn't appear to be presenting.
https://bmogmm.com/gmm/2.0/company-profile.aspx?id=14954
I'm sure he will be pressing the flesh with the great & the good in the Gold / Copper mining space over the next few days prior to his visit to London next week.
GLA - Paddy