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Just checked the Annual report and these options were all due to expire in either Feb, April or March this year - looks like this might have been their only window for director dealing.
What does that tell you about potential newsflow over the coming weeks? - Paddy
Blah, blah, blah - did you seriously think that none of these options would ever be exercised when they have been in the money.
If they had exercised them at 35p and had to sell only a fraction to cover the costs (thereby keeping more) then would people have been more happy? It was a fact of life that these options were issued when they were and now the directors are entitled to exercise them - simples.
At least a lot of the cheaper options have been exercised now, when the newly issued ones at 11.9p are exercised then we will see meaningful amounts of cash flow into the company coffers.
It was always going to happen - it's now done and behind us, let's look forward to the next news, guaranteed NCM results in two weeks and possibly Juri / Scally results before or soon afterwards, lots to watch out for.
ATB - Paddy
19.2 million and 5.6 million - adds up nicely to that 24.8 million trade that we saw last week.
I would imagine it was handled by the brokers and went straight into a sticky II position. I'm sure they were glad to hover them up at those prices.
Borelli & Latcham don't have many options left to exercise now and most people will have included these options in their fully diluted calcs anyway.
All coming together nicely - Paddy
Hi Jerry, 100% agree with you - the day to day stuff is frustrating and while the SP gets people all upset and riled up, if some of the macro themes that are being proposed by people in the #fintwit community come to light then commodities (and hence companies like GGP) are going to become a much bigger part of everyone's portfolios in the coming years.
I have just read through the latest offering from Zoltan which can be found here -
https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=5hig-YP34-V&t=-7k6igsca7azmsnjxid59q5wex
Heavy going but definitely worth 10 minutes of your time. GGP is good value going forward on it's current fundamentals but if some of the macro themes play out then commodities will become more and more important - indeed in that interview with Sherry, she says that Newcrest would like to see their revenue increase from 25% currently towards 50% and even higher. She also mentioned in her keynote speech that Nickel / Graphite and other battery metals will become more and more important over the coming years - seems she's been listening to Twiggy & Wyloo!!!
Here's a quote from the Zoltan piece -
1. 60/40 won’t cut it anymore and should be 20/40/20/20 instead,
with the weights representing cash, stocks, bonds, and commodities.
So Willem Middelkoop has picked up on this today and tweeted the following -
https://twitter.com/wmiddelkoop/status/1612004780037050374?s=20&t=DLeqapRYFv4HB83CboNbdQ
"During the last decade, most institutional investors had LESS than 1% invested in commodities. Zoltan is highly influential among institutional investors. This change in strategy will take years to unfold. A long-term commodity bull market ahead .."
So if institutional investors currently have around 1% of their portfolio's in commodities and if the new thinking will be to increase that proportion, then the outcome will be obvious.
As Jerry says - this is super big picture thinking and will takes years to play out but Gold, Copper, Nickel and other commodities are going fly and the control of the supply of them is going to make some companies and people very, very wealthy - IMHO.
All I can say is I'm more than happy to be invested in a company with the prospects that Greatland have and I couldn't think of any other person than Shaun that I'd rather be in charge over the next few years. Timing is everything and we now have the project, the CEO, the BOD, the financing and the team in place to really move to the next level. Again time will tell us if it all comes to pass.
GLA - Paddy
Almost impossible for anyone to have a lowball takeover bid accepted by the GGP shareholders IMO.
Look at the latest Annual Report - Page 21, tot up the percentages of shares held in "Nominee" accounts - ie PI's like us. It comes to over 80%. I accept that there have been additional share issued since then that will have diluted that slightly but it's still a very big PI presence on the share register.
https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/GGP-Annual-Report-30-June-2022.pdf
Unless an offer is recommended by the board (what eye-watering sum would they agree to) then there is not a cat in hell's chance of it being voted through IMHO.
Soon enough there will be anticipated news and actual news that will take care of the traders / shorters who are making their 10/15% on the movements of GGP - remember they are still blasting & digging their way to the orebody face every day while people fret over these daily moves.
GLA - Paddy
Interesting discussion on an Aussie mining podcast discussing GGP/NCM/Wyloo and their involvements at Havieron.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/43EFuFVVUOaCdcvSKqtoqm?si=U4VnkcDATOi8xELW7310Ow&nd=1
Starts at about 2:20mins in.
ATB - Paddy
Love your confidence @napthman1 but I think the best weekly rise we had in 2020 was about 6.5p so I can't see 6-8p daily rises but WTFDIK.
Great to see some positivity all around - just need to sit and watch it all play out now. Everything has been meticulously put in place by SD & the team, looking forward to the coming months.
GLA - Paddy
Pretty confident that the MRE upgrade "could" be of a similar 43% upgrade as the last one.
I'm guessing that's using conservative numbers again but still would take us up to +9Moz of high grade material.
Also highlighted the mine life - it will be long enough to go through 2 or 3 gold/copper cycles and that's just the 3mtpa SLOS operation. If the bulk mining gets the green light in years to come then they'll still be mining this when we are all pushing up daisies.
Exciting times - GLA Paddy
https://twitter.com/RoastPR/status/1610258036395745283?s=20&t=aYZd_DGi0KL0xxjL7jHJMA
Just released on Twitter.
ATB - Paddy
Good sum up of the preparations that have been carried out this year Bamps and as Panama said yesterday the foundations have been well and truly laid.
It's surely been a long and arduous 24 months but it's great to see that many, many PI's here have stayed the course and as we move inexorably towards the orebody, all the necessary conditions to build a proper company have been sorted by Shaun and the team.
Here's to a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year.
There's a lot on here who will be glad to see the back of 2022 for personal reasons (including me).
All the very best - Paddy
Doing a bit digging I found that NCM/GGP needed to submit an annual report as a condition of their mining lease.
I found the WA government website that allows you to view the report.
https://ace.dmp.wa.gov.au/ACE/Public/ComplianceSubmissions/AerPopupSubmissionPublicView?id=49781
"The Havieron Project (the Project) is a greenfield gold-copper deposit operated by Newcrest under a farm-in agreement with Greatland. The Project is located within the boundaries of the East Pilbara Shire in the Paterson Province, Western Australia, and is located approximately 45 kilometres (km) east of Newcrest’s Telfer Mine.
Stage 2 of the Havieron Project is currently in the Feasibility Stage with approval expected late 2023. The Stage 2 Mining Proposal amendment is expected to be submitted in early 2023 to allow concurrent assessment whilst the EPA assessment occurs. Stage 2 covers the underground mine development (below 400mbgl), an infrastructure corridor to Telfer and additional infrastructure (waste rock landform, evaporation ponds, paste plant, etc). Amendments to Telfer’s Mining Proposals are expected to allow processing of Havieron ore, deposition of tailings in addition to use of Telfer waste rock and tailings.
Description of Havieron Mining activities in the reporting period (1 Oct 2021 – 31 Aug 2022).
Continuation of single heading decline.
Commence excavation of surface vertical return airway shaft.
Completion of temporary raw water storage facility (Turkey’s Nest).
Commence construction of Hypersaline Cell 2 and waste rock dump containment bund."
So the Stage 2 Mining Plan amendment will be submitted in early 2023 with approval expected in late 2023 - this ties in nicely with the expected timeline of the arrival of the decline at the ore-body. This approval will be needed to continue past the Stage 1 exploration approval.
The fact that NCM are advertising for positions with contracts until the minimum of June 2024 then we can assume that they are pretty confident that these approvals will be forthcoming.
GLA - Paddy
These positions are contracts direct for Newcrest, but the contractors who are going to be developing the mine infrastructure are advertising for positions and saying they are long term +5 year positions.
https://www.seek.com.au/job/59338034?type=standard#sol=743129ce54729a55f2eddeeaa74b77d21f014a41
GLA - Paddy
50p might be acceptable for Havieron only - would be interesting to see the reaction of both the BOD and the shareholders if that were to happen.
I'm sure Shaun would make sure that MRE3 was published before an offer would be even considered so we could all get a better understanding of the metrics that would be used for the valuation. It would certainly make the rejection of the 5% for $60m look like the worst decision that NCM have ever made.
By my estimation 50p with circa 5billion shares in circulation would value 5% of Havieron at roughly $500m - can't see it happening personally but you can see why Shaun said it would need to be an "eye-watering" amount if NCM wanted to gain control of 100%.
ATB - Paddy
Australia's sovereign wealth fund increasing it's exposure to gold - all it needs is for these moves to start to trickle down to pension funds and PI funds and there could be big moves in the coming years.
https://wtvbam.com/2022/12/18/australias-sovereign-wealth-fund-buys-gold-commodities-as-shadow-of-1970s-looms/#.Y6BTRa60L1g.twitter
ATB - Paddy
@redtrader - what a load of tosh.
NCM refusing the 5% was the best thing that happened to GGP since Callum put the drill into HAD001, IMO. That measly $60m will be worth many 100's of millions of $'s over the coming years, they still have not found the edges of the orebody for Christ's sake man.
NCM tried to play cute and put a squeeze on GGP but they were outmanoeuvred and outflanked by Shaun when he got the funding in place quick smart after they refused the 5% and now Sandeep is paying for it. I'm sure he would have loved to have been there to see the first Havieron ore through the mill at Telfer and left his position on a high but he isn't going to be on the bread line so won't be getting any sympathy from this quarter.
This changes nothing in the short term - Havieron is still on the fast-track to be mined. When the new CEO takes their position then there's a possibility they will want to shake things up in the portfolio - if that happens then I expect Shaun and our high powered BOD to have various plans in place to deal with the consequences.
ATB - Paddy
The only way that NCM are walking away from Havieron is if Telfer goes up for sale as well IMO - the fate of both are completely intertwined now and the timeline / pathway has pretty much been hammered out with the decline problems behind us and NCM electing to do a proper job on the DFS using up to date drilling results rather than rehashing the PFS with results that would be almost 24 months out of date.
The new guy/girl won't be in place for a couple of months at the very earliest and then they will need time to settle into the position before any major decisions would be made so I don't really see any major changes in the short term IMO.
It will be business as usual for GGP, which means focussing on getting our MRE ready for release in the New Year although I'm sure Shaun will be keeping a close eye on developments as they ocur.
GLA - Paddy
Don't forget that there were more than the Newcrest offer on the table at the farm in stage of Havieron.
Gervaise and Callum decided that the best fit was Newcrest based on their experience and infrastructure in the region and hopefully they will ultimately be proved to be correct, but Sandeep wasn't the white knight out to rescue his junior partner.
There were other options on the table.
Sandeep was outed as a bully earlier this year and that sort of management is not acceptable in this era whatever you believe. It was only a matter of time once that was out in the public domain IMO.
It seems this has been known in industry circles for a while if you believe the press that the search has been going on for a few months already, I wonder what hastened his move before his replacement had already been found.
IMO there's no chance that SD would jump ship - in fact if this is an open secret then he's probably looking to see how we can turn this to our advantage.
Never a dull moment, ATB Paddy