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Hi MFU - thanks for the build-up, so I'm nicely set up for a fall from grace now :-)
I've always been privately fantasising about obscene numbers of ounces getting declared but the reality is they can only announce the amount that is supported by the density of drilling that they have managed to achieve over the past 12 months.
There's also an understanding that NCM are a bit of an old dye-in-the-wool behemoth who will 100% error on the side of caution and under promise and over deliver (eventually). If Shaun & GGP were in full control of the MRE updates then the drilling density would probably decrease and we'd get multiple upgrades throughout the year.
Having said all that - personally I think a doubling of the current "inferred" category from 4.2Moz Eq to somewhere in the ball-park you mentioned is definitely a possibility but again it's only another staging post on the long and winding road.
GLA - Paddy
Remember folks - less than 2 weeks or 9 trading days until we see the MRE 2 in the flesh.
https://www.newcrest.com/investor-centre/key-dates
Newcrest Half Yearly presentation will be on the 17th in Oz so we will see it on the night of Wed the 16th.
Sandeep will be doing the usual video presentation and will have a Q&A session at the end - I wonder what the questions will focus on with the 5% negotiations deadline looming large too.
GLA - Paddy
@Khrysos - if the 5% is worth $280M right now then the 25% in 5 years time would be worth a hell of a lot more.
I'm not saying that NCM don't covet the remaining 25% but I don't think there's enough work been completed on the property for them to be able to come up with an offer that would be acceptable to SD and the BOD just yet.
We'll see what happens but if a bid for the whole 100% of Havieron were to come then I'd think it would be more likely after the FS at the end of the year IMO.
Hi Hydro - I realised that after I posted the tweet but TBF, I'm more than happy that it's from a completely new high grade zone and not a SE infill as you said.
A few more of those new zones in the Eastern breccia will make a lot more people sit up and take notice - fingers crossed.
Well they'll be worth a fair bit to either me or my kids Dan when we are still holding GGP shares and the dividends from the FCF have been steadily rolling in over the decades.
Generational opportunity here at GGP in my opinion - just need people to have an investment horizon long than the end of their noses.
GLA - Paddy
Haha @Doggy100 - bored at work and I couldn't resist.
https://twitter.com/paddygall1/status/1488967809828802565?s=20&t=9mwBHpWa3LnpVNiFbplXNQ
ATB - Paddy
I don't know what Shaun's plans are for the 5% windfall but personally I'd love for him to carry on and use bank finance for our share of the capex for the remainder of the FS and the construction of the starter mine. Then after paying back however much we have spent from the $50M loan to NCM in full - use the remainder to drill the bejasus out of Scallywag, Tabletop and start the ball rolling on Earnest Giles.
Also if NCM want to step up the exploration at Havieron we will be required to fund our 25% stake in that as well. I think this would give him all the options that he required going forward until FCF starts to pour into the coffers.
Just my opinion though - Paddy
Quality Podcast by Shaun Day - very happy camper here but it seems there's loads & loads of PI's who have decided to sell up after listening to that - you're havin' a laugh guys.
All eyes on MRE2 in less than 2 weeks time - bring it on boys, Paddy
Loving this podcast from Shaun.
Telfer style opportunity at Havieron and Telfer is a +20Moz deposit.
Other base metal opportunities at Havieron - Nickel anyone?????
Great stuff Shaun - keep the PR flowing.....
I hear what you are saying @antigua18, but we have what we have, regardless of whatever AC says. The intriguing thing is if it does run up into Atlas / Apollo then what we have will grow exponentially and we'll all be happy together.
TBF to Alistair he has been saying +20Moz since 2019 when he was CEO at Primorous Investments.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/primorus-investments/rns/greatland-gold-investment-update/201912110700064302W/
This was before the opportunity came for him to take on the role at Artemis which he obviously jumped at - another interesting fact is that he holds a geology degree from the university in Perth and his thesis paper was on Telfer and Telfer style mineralisation.
I think he's probably better positioned that many of us on here to be making any kind of claims.
GLA - Paddy
Proactive interview out with Alastair Clayton CEO of Artemis tonight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XY-Q20nsZE
Shaping up for 20M+oz
ATB - Paddy
I wouldn't be surprised to see the SP getting "tamped" down again this afternoon but remember the window for any short term "massaging" of the SP is getting smaller & smaller. At some point the fundamentals will win out here IMO.
GLA holders - Paddy
GGP were in a position to calculate their MRE2 as early as last December so regardless of what NCM will be using I'm pretty sure that's what GGP will be using in their estimations.
If it goes to arbitration then the INDEPENDENT valuer will be using the most up to date drilling results to work out a Fair Market Value.
@WF - 100% there's was no way on this planet that either GH or Sandeep had a clue to the eventual size of Havieron when the original farm-in was brokered and I agree that without the input of NCM we would absolutely nowhere. And even more significantly we have the good fortune that NCM have an ageing Telfer with a skilled workforce that NEEDS Havieron's ore yesterday if possible.
Shaun referred to it as the "Goldilocks" moment in an article a while back - not too early that NCM could potter along and take their time drilling it out causing more dilution for us, and not too late that Telfer was already on care and maintenance and again they could drag it out. We are right in the sweet spot timing wise - production in CY23 - less than 2 years to FCF from a high grade starter mine with multiple MRE's and studies to continue to be produced in the coming years. No wonder Shaun is grinning from ear to ear and often refers to Havieron as a better launch asset than the one that started Northern Star on it's path to becoming a mid-Tier gold miner.
@chris0720 - Shaun will 100% be on the ball IMO and he has built a great team around him. That's what you want to see in your CEO - someone is is prepared to identify his weaknesses and put experts in place that can provide the necessary expertise when required.
No long to find out what the outcome will be - ATB Paddy
Personally I hope that NCM refuse to buy the 5%, but there's not a cat's chance in hell of that happening.
I'd love for us to be able to hold onto the full 30% of Havieron because that 5% is going to be worth a hell of a lot more in even 12 months time that it will be when the negotiations are complete.
NCM are going to get another bargain and fair play to them, that was the agreement in the JV and we will stick to it - they will have to pay a lot more for the remaining 25% if they want full control of Havieron.
GLA holders - Paddy