The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
And therein lies Sandeep's problem in a nutshell - he will undoubtedly want the whole of Havieron but what sort of offer does he need to make to get the GGP board and the army of PI's onside??
One which will need to be far bigger than he will be sanctioned to make IMO, when Shaun gets the bank finance in place then than will be another lever taken away from Sandeep, along with the independently verified upgrade yesterday then Sandeep must see that his control over the situation is rapidly diminishing.
Shaun has proven himself to be a canny operator and shrewd poker player up to now - the next moves are going to be fascinating to watch.
GLA - Paddy
I think our shorting friends have some very big decisions to make imminently.
That upgrade yesterday and the next set of drilling results next week must be giving them serious reasons for concern. Another couple of HAD104 results next week could really set the cast amongst the pigeons.
I really wouldn't want to be short on the near term here but each to their own.
GLA Paddy
It's amazing where have all the people gone who said Shaun was a puppet, caretaker, NCM man who was put in place to oversee the takeover.
People can now see that he has got the back of GGP small investors and I hope everyone rallies behind him and the team now. We have an exciting future ahead, one way or the other, so let's all look forward.
Copper at ATH's this morning and gold looking strong too, good time to be sitting on a tier 1 gold/copper discovery.
ATB Paddy
Another bemused article in the Aussie press this morning taking about the Havieron situation.
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2022/03/04/newcrest-playing-wait-and-see-with-havieron/
At least Shaun's actions have brought the situation to a wider audience down under.
ATB Paddy
I concur Monty - let the games play out, less and less stress with every update and remember the next set of drill results is due in a week's time - a few more HAD104's through the Eastern breccia would do very nicely... not to mention the maiden result from one of the Zipa holes hopefully.
Things ratcheting up nicely now - well played Shaun......
The detailed MRE update complete with images can be found here.
https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/20220303_GGP_Hav_Resource_Reserve_Update-with-images.pdf
Makes for very good reading IMO - Paddy
https://app.ortex.com/s/AIM/GGP/short-interest
According to the Ortex website as of yesterday JPM had reduced from 20.23 million short to 19.83 million short and therefore are now at 0.49% and therefore don't need to declare it any more.
Let's see if they continue to reduce in the coming days / weeks.
ATB - Paddy
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B15XDH89/
It's either closed or gone below the 0.5% reporting threshold - we won't know for sure.
ATB - Paddy
RIO have just announced a 40% upgrade to the resource at Winu and it's still open in multiple directions.
https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RIO-TINTO-PLC-9590196/news/Rio-Tinto-Update-to-Mineral-Resources-at-Winu-39548612/
Does this remind anyone of any other deposit in the region perhaps??
Seems that the Paterson is definitely elephant country as Shaun of fond of saying.
Who'd been against more Havieron's & Winu's being found in the coming months/years??
ATB Paddy
I can guarantee you that anything I post on here or on Twitter has absolutely nothing to do with Shaun Day whatsoever. I picked up that article from a link posted by another poster in a GGP twitter group - I have been a LTH'er here for a long time and sure enough people look at my posts - so what.
It's a relevant news article from a reputable Aussie newspaper that may or may not be of interest to GGP shareholders - I will post whatever I deem to be relevant - if anyone doesn't agree then simply ignore or put me in the filter.
Unbelievable - Paddy
Sounds like the major shareholders at Newcrest have had enough of Sandeep spending their divis in the short term - perhaps a sign that any M&A might not be on the agenda in the near future.
He seems to be threading a very thin line at the moment - not the time to go into a protracted negotiation that might endanger the progress at Telfer maybe. Lots to mull over in the coming weeks & months but one things for sure Havieron is only going to get bigger & bigger as those weeks & months pass by.
GLA - Paddy
Mr Biswas told investors he was determined to drive cultural change at the gold miner, after apologising earlier this week to anyone who felt bullied during their time at Newcrest and conceding that his leadership style had to change for Newcrest to achieve its potential.
Management of “people” had a 5 per cent weighting on Mr Biswas’ short-term incentive payment in fiscal 2021 and the Newcrest remuneration committee felt his performance on that metric was below target in the year.
Mr Biswas said he would not be surprised to see “people” take on a bigger weighting in future remuneration outcomes.
“I would expect to see more emphasis going forward on culture, particularly in the personal metrics because some of these things are particular to the individual,” he said.
The lower profit reported by Newcrest on Thursday was mostly driven by weaker production; gold and copper output was 20 per cent and 27 per cent lower than the prior period respectively.
The weaker production reflects both the ageing nature of Newcrest’s flagship Cadia mine but also the fact the mine was disrupted while an important piece of machinery underwent maintenance.
The weaker production combined with higher labour and transport costs to ensure Newcrest’s unit costs of production were 23 per cent higher than the prior period.
The cost of managing the pandemic has also surged, with Newcrest now expecting to spend between $US50 million and $US60 million in the year to June, rather than its original forecast for spending to be between $US35 million and $US45 million.
The majority of the higher pandemic costs relate to the Lihir mine in Papua New Guinea.
Mr Biswas said Lihir was now managing COVID-19 as if it were in an endemic stage, rather than a pandemic stage, which means the company will only isolate symptomatic people.
The extra pandemic costs come after the company spent $US53 million on similar measures in the year to June 2021.
Mr Biswas said it was “unlikely” that Newcrest would be awarded a special mining licence for the long-stalled Wafi-Golpu copper and gold project in Papua New Guinea before parliamentary elections are held in the developing nation in June.
Despite the low expectations, Mr Biswas said there had been a revival in talks with the PNG government in the past few weeks.
Gold prices have rallied over the past three weeks on the threat of war in Ukraine, with the yellow metal fetching $US1879 per ounce on Thursday.
Mr Biswas said he was surprised that gold prices had not rallied sooner given the stimulus packages announced by governments over the past two years, and he said the looming era of inflation should be good for gold prices.
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/newcrest-culture-to-have-bigger-say-on-exec-pay-20220217-p59xcs?s=08
Apologetic Newcrest chief executive Sandeep Biswas expects workplace culture to have a bigger influence over executive pay in future, as he signalled a three-year phase of mergers and acquisitions was probably over.
Newcrest spent more on growth than it earned over the past six months, reporting a 46 per cent slide in half-year profits to $US298 million ($414 million) and a US7.5¢ interim dividend that was half last year’s interim payout.
Newcrest will spend up to $US1.7 billion on internal growth projects in the year to June on top its $US2.8 billion acquisition of Canadian miner Pretivm.
The big spend comes after Newcrest spent almost $US2 billion on internal projects over the past two financial years and more than $US1 billion buying new stakes in Canada’s Red Chris and Ecuador’s Fruta del Norte mines in a bid to reverse its declining gold production outlook.
Allan Gray chief investment officer Simon Mawhinney said he would not support any further acquisitions in the hope Newcrest turned its focus to improving shareholder returns.
“It would be nice to see them focus on organic opportunities,” he told The Australian Financial Review. “We have no appetite for inorganic activities or further share issues. They should be buying their shares back and living within their means. Enough already.
“Shareholders are being left both diluted and without meaningful dividends. Patience is wearing very thin.
“Newcrest should take a leaf out of the [Canadian gold mining giant] Barrick playbook. They are paying good dividends and buying back shares.”
Mr Biswas said the growth spending of the past three years had given Newcrest “an unrivalled set of quality assets” which would enable the company to halve its production costs by 2030.
Mr Biswas said better shareholder returns would be the natural extension of that strategy and further acquisitions were not essential to delivery of the strategy.
“In terms of any further M&A [mergers and acquisitions], look, we have got a full deck,” he said. “You never say ‘no’ to these things because you never know when opportunities pop up, but we are very focused on our existing assets and investments.
“Over time I would expect more returns to shareholders once we get over the cycle of investment in these projects.??
The US7.5¢ interim dividend was in effect the minimum allowed under the dividend policy adopted by Newcrest one year ago.
Newcrest had a dividend yield of 2.9 per cent in fiscal 2021, but Barrenjoey analysts expect the company’s dividend yield to be approximately 1 per cent in the year to June and remain at that level in the two subsequent years.
cont
Well - we will either be a junior partner with 25% profits from a massive Tier 1 mine or we will have the cash stashed away from the sale of that same 25% and be either looking for or developing our own assets found using that cash.
I don't know what the SP will be but it's a pretty safe bet it will be more than 13/14p IMO.
ATB - Paddy
Nothing has dropped from what I can see - the values are for 40% of the MRE. If you add up the indicated and inferred after calculating the full 100% it adds up to the same 3.6Moz Au and 160Kt Cu as the original MRE.
The indicated has improved to 1.925Moz since the PFS but I'm at a loss as to why there has been no upgrade to the inferred value.
It will be interesting to hear what Shaun has to say tomorrow.
ATB - Paddy
If the upgrade to the MRE is decent then I would think there are a lot of people would who welcome a hammering on the SP - if you're happy to hold with our current MRE then you'd be mad to sell or not top-up (if funds permit).