Member Info for Paddyboy1

Https://www.mobicogroup.com/media/4zqjlmqd/national-express-full-year-results-2019-release.pdf

JG,

Please view the attached link re FY2019 results. Yes i agree the impairment cost relating to ALSA is clouding things here. Most notably the PBT & EPS figures. But look at the other numbers here. Not much different to current performance. Net debt even higher. We all know where the SP was when these numbers were released.

Once the short seller algos have weeded out the panic sellers & low ball stop losses this will reverse!

My outlook on MCG is 5-10 years not 5-10 minutes or 5-10 days That has always been my strategy with this investment. If we had crystal balls & could predict everything then there wouldn't be any market to speak of. Noone knows where the SP may or may not go. Sentiment & circumstance can change in the blink of an eye in this gig. I'm comfortable that if things go along well this company should have annual EBIT in excess of £200m. A company with those earnings numbers is not worth only £500m but much more than that. Chopping & changing from share to share & crystallizing losses never works especially if you are selling out on no news at all which is what is happening here. People are selling on unwarranted fear fuelled by short sellers. This share is grossly undervalued & time will prove me right!

I'm down about £30k on paper. No big deal if you have money & time on your side!

Noone catches the bottom on a share & it's futile trying to. Anyone who bought ASOS @£7 knows that too well!

Marstons is a pub business. Along with housebuilders these businesses are affected by the COL crisis far more than essential transport services. interest rates are fixed at the moment & fuel is hedged but that is reducing anyway so they will rehedge future fuel costs at a lower price. If you think this business will need £200m+ to service it's debt you need the divvy maths class not the playground. A capital raise is not out of the question but no need if gearing is still reducing as it is currently hence the divi. Even if they paid 7% interest on debt that is £70m per year on £1bn. Peanuts on those revenues & margins. This is an investment grade business so of course it wouldn't pay those type of rates anyway. They also have £800m in undrawn cash & credit facilities to fall back on!

The day to day business is running in much the same way as it was pre pandemic. Picking up more new contracts along the way & with a multi million pipeline for more business. We are now in economic downturn & sentiment is poor. Economies historically are cyclical: boom/bust etc... We are in the downward curve the question is how long will it all last before a recovery. These are the times to be accumulating shares at value prices. Not just MCG but many other stocks trading at huge discounts. Some will wait for the recovery but these prices will be history then. All down to whether you have the stomach for it all!!

The bottom line for me is the company is being valued near £500m on a revenue near £3bn annually. On a conservative margin of 7% that equals annual profit of £200m+. That is where i believe the business will be in years to come & the SP will eventually recognise that value. I have plenty of time to wait for this investment to flourish. If people want to sell out on few pence drops in panic that is their choice. This will be a future multi bag investment & these are just ridiculously priced now!

Anyone can come on a bb uninvested & holler a SP down & then suddenly vanish when the SP bounces. I've seen it many times on all these boards. It's called trolling! It's rather sad that someone lacks confidence in their conviction so creates multiple accounts to back up their trolling! Are you actually invested in anything other than holding out for a miracle on the ASOS dog? Get a normal job as your JSA money isn't meant for investment!

Mr Dip, you need medical help. Seek a psychiatrist!

Well, i took a good chunk here yesterday @just over 92p. An insane price level. 30 year lows. Am holding back a good bit of powder now as the markets are just insane. This is now approaching a £500m mkt cap for the entire business with annual revenues near £3bn.. So it's quarterly revenue is now more than the entire company is worth. I've really never seen a SP behave like this but the mood seems grim across the markets. I think once we have a glimmer that the inflation is under control we may see a vaccine style day on the markets at some stage. So many stocks are going below 12month or ATLs. Scary stuff but the tide will turn eventually!

I see the PSN folks have quickly copped on to your duplicitous saddo multi alias drivel. A 24 carat moronic cretin! All my taxes are spent keeping twats like you housed & fed. the country has really gone to the dogs!

That's right. Made quite a few grand on KCT & SDRY. Increasing my holding in VOD atm. What's your point here? you've lost half your money on ASOS . sniffing around on PSN causing mischief. . Have you ever bought any share which has made you any money?

I didn't buy ASOS or PSN. You're on the wrong board!

No desparation from me son. relishing the chance to buy this blue chip at such a bargain level. In 5 years my pension pot will be bulging thanks to Systemica & GLG's kind assistance in allowing me to buy these so cheap!

DB, if debt cover is on target there should be an interim.

It did then the shorts reversed. the same will happen here!!

The debt level seems really to be the only thing that is holding this SP down along with overall market sentiment & rising interest rates. While the debt levels are a concern, Cineworld this is not. The debt is being managed correctly & gearing has been reduced. This is borne out in all the recent RNS updates. Have seen lots of arguments here that they should sell off parts of the business to pay down the debt. I disagree. that is like selling off the family silver & there is no need for them to do so. Regarding interest rates. Well, MCG has fixed most of their short term liabilities so no major concern there IMO. It should be remembered that a business like this is only really affected by interest rates on the supply side ( labour cost; leasing etc) unlike other businesses (e.g. housebuilders) which are hit on the demand side. The demand side is impossible to control or influence whereas the supply side can be controlled by cutting certain costs. Demand for MCG's services are inelastic. People do not stop using coach & bus transport to get to work etc because interest rates rises like they would delay a house purchase . Hopefully the July update will reassure investors. Time will tell!

Please explain to this board why you bought ASOS at £7 & watched your pocket money go to £3.20!

When the rerate comes, which it will. you will vanish along with your multi aliases probably off to Persimmon again to spout your vitriol on there!