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Exactly what I was thinking Ab76. There is definitely a quiet confidence about the answers to the investor questions this morning. Perhaps it is pure relief after no doubt a very stressful summer!
Think about it...............they talk at length about how the field has considerably risen in value, how they wouldn't be surprised if they are approached about selling the field, and how they are planning to crank up the PR to a national level over the next few weeks.
Hardly talk from a company expecting to deliver disappointing volumes and flow rates.
If they are prudent they will arrange the interviews to coincide with the (hopefully ultra positive) flow rates RNS.
(Part 2/2)
George strikes me as a cautious sort. They have put some numbers out there but imagine if the actual numbers were higher? De-rampers like HITs keep banging on about the company having to hit their targets to get to the promised land but what if they exceed them? The 2 wells have been shut-in for 4 years. Pressure has built, and technology and equipment has improved. We also know the field had lots of equipment issues etc in the final year. Not that I know anything about the technical side of things. Not a clue. Happy to listen to any technical experts on this point. Just putting it out there for discussion.
If they do sell, I just hope George and the Board do not settle for anything less than 6p+ a share. I am not keen for my shares to go for anything less, just because they may need the funds for some geothermal project that frankly I can’t get excited about. From what I can gather, not many shareholders can. Again, respectfully George, please take note.
Saltfleetby and gas is where it is at. The clear brief here has to be to maximise shareholder value.
This share has some real momentum now. Outside interest and confidence is rapidly increasing. As we get closer to first gas, hopefully this will only continue.
Good luck to all genuine holders.
Hi All,
Part 1/2,
I have been a shareholder in Angus for a long time (yes, the horrible times of years ago) and I have to say I have never known this board with so much optimism and hope. Not for years anyway. To be honest, I never thought I would see this again.
Even this share board’s resident pantomime villain HeadInTheSand – who most on this board (including probably him!) would agree is a very persistent critic of the company – stated yesterday that he would value the Angus share price at between 5p (cautious) and 9p (optimistic) if the sidetrack is successful.
Wow. Just wow.
Let’s be clear, the company is very confident of a successful sidetrack. George has stated in various interviews over the last year that he rates it as “high 90’s % chance of success.” Indeed, in 2 investor question responses on their website (see 15th June and 29th July 2021 answers), the company explains in detail why. Moreover, in the interview on LSE this very week he again indicates that all of the experts have looked at it – the company / lenders / potential bidders etc – all of whom you would assume would naturally take a look at it very cautiously - and they remain very confident of it being successful.
Yes, mistakes have definitely been made in the past. Angus got the timings badly wrong (just the 2 years late George!), and yes, they got the budget wrong (both massive understatements!), but we are where we are. Which is just weeks away now from first gas in an environment of sky rocketing gas prices.
The gas price and world circumstances have changed everything. Rip up the CPR as the gas price is 6 times higher now, and looking good to continue that way. All debt paid back by the end of the year. No-one saw this coming. The perfect storm of perfect storms.
Personally, I would rather George and the team “went it alone” now and not sell because the numbers are just fantastic. Just do the maths! (Yes, before you say it HeadInTheSand, even taking fully into account the 3 year hedge).
If I’m honest, I would have been content with 4p a share a few weeks ago, but now if an offer was announced on Monday morning at 4p a share I would be genuinely disappointed. When you look at where we are and what we have, my expectations have certainly increased. Hell, even the company’s biggest critic (HITS) is arguing a valuation much higher than this now (5p to 9p a share based on a successful sidetrack, which Angus states they have a confidence level of 90%+ of achieving).
I haven’t seen a single positive post over the last few months on this board about the share-for-share offer from Sound Energy, no matter what the offer price is. Shareholders aren’t stupid.
George, respectfully, please take note.
And just imagine if the gas numbers at Saltfleetby exceeded expectations. At today’s gas prices, the share price would go into orbit. It’s not out of the question either.
Hi HeadInTheSand,
By all means, I was hoping you would ask. It was on 2nd March at 3.49pm. Is that precise enough for you? Anyone can look at your history and see it for themselves.
You still haven't answered - despite several (failed) attempts by me - why you care so much about the fortunes (or otherwise) of Angus Energy?
No other share appears to interest you - it's Angus Energy only - and you are so relentless and obsessed............I get that you have every right to keep your reasons to yourself............but I'm also sure that most of the readers on this forum would like to know what drives the HeadInTheSand Angus Energy obsession ????
Hi Sagerman,
I too took HeadInTheSand to task about his constant negative posts a few weeks ago (see my history).
In one post he actually admitted he wanted the company to fail (see his history).
Unfortunately I got bored. I just don't have his staying power!
I have formed the opinion (rightly or wrongly) that he lost a lot of money in the past by selling out and has made it his life's mission to do everything within his power to ensure the company fails.
Some of his criticisms of the company may be justified but it's the obsessional nature of them that concerns me.
I actually find it quite sad - there is a big world out there HeadInTheSand and if you dared to avert your gaze from the Angus Energy Chat Forum screens for a second you might just realise that.
Each to their own I guess, but obsessions are rarely healthy in any walks of life.
Hi HeadInTheSand,
"I'll freely admit that if there were a way for the company to fail without losing LTHers any money at all, but causing ouchy losses to the recent crop of falsehood-spreading and pitifully ill-informed ramptastic shills and swing traders, I'd be all in favour of that - but that is of course impossible."
What part of your above sentence from you earlier today do you feel I have misrepresented?
Genuine question, I'm intrigued to know. Thanks.
Hi HeadInTheSand,
Thanks for responding. So if there were no long-term holders on this chat site, then you openly admit you would like the company to fail?
I suspected (as per my last post) that this was the case, but am surprised you are openly admitting to it.
I think it is important that investors/readers of this chat board know that you hold this view when they read your posts.
Holding a grudge against a company for a number of years - to the point where it dominates a big chunk of your life - just isn't healthy. You must know this, surely?
That said, I respect your right to do as you please. Each to their own. I just genuinely do not understand it.
Best Wishes.
Hi HeadInTheSand,
Thanks for your response. I have to say I read your posts and they can on occasions be measured and offer an alternative viewpoint – and certainly I agree debate is healthy – but recently you just appear more and more desperate for the company to fail. That's how it comes across (to me) anyway.
Respectfully, you still haven't answered "why" Angus Energy? You have posted circa 150 (normally lengthy) posts about the company in the last month, and something like 4,000 in the last 3 years or so, according to your history. You appear equally vocal on the other site as well. It would seem that you onIy post about this company too. It appears to dominate quite a big chunk of your life.
So my question – meant without malice – is why? I get that you have every right to do so, but can I ask why do you spend most of your week on chat forums for an AIM Energy company you are not even invested in? I think even you would agree that the average man or woman in the street would find this very, very odd behaviour? It is clearly more than a casual hobby to you, or just having a lot of free time on your hands.
I am not trying to be critical, I am just fascinated by your mindset. Each to their own I guess.
Others on here suggest you are paid to do so or are a "greenie". I'm not so sure. If I had to guess I would say that you are a previous shareholder who sold out at a big loss a long time ago and is still bitter, promising to yourself that you would do everything in your power to ensure that the share price does not rise in the future.
Feel free to tell me how wrong I am?
Hi Mirasol,
I'm a shareholder, fingers burnt in the past (see previous posts), but for the first time in a long time starting to have real hope and hoping the company does well and the share price rises. I am just trying to understand the mindset of someone who seems to have an obsession with a company he/she is not invested in. Particularly HeadInTheSand, as according to his/her history, appears to only be focused on Angus Energy and Angus Energy alone. Very odd.
Perhaps you can help me to understand? Or even better, perhaps HeadInTheSand can help me to understand?
Thanks in advance.
Hi HeadInTheSand,
You appear to have ignored my question put to you yesterday. Perhaps I could repeat it:-
Out of interest, why do you care so much about the fortunes (or otherwise) of Angus Energy?
Thanks in advance.
Only if a sidetrack is 100% unsuccessful Mirasol. Production without a sidetrack will more than cover the hedge - this has been agreed by the lenders' experts. The sidetrack, which for various reasons the company has a very high level of confidence of being successful - despite what detractors of the company might say - is completely unhedged.
At today's gas prices, that will be massive gains for the company.
The biggest take from the investor question responses for me was the (completely unpredicted a few years ago) gas price increase. I vaguely remember when they released the CPR chart a couple of years ago thinking what a big difference it would make to the numbers if the gas price changed by even 10% (either way), and worrying that if the gas price dropped from their projections of 50p/therm whether Saltfleetby was even worth bothering with economically. It was the one thing that concerned me more than anything. At 40p/therm or 45p/therm the numbers were not very exciting at all.
However, by a huge slice of good fortune more than anything, somehow (quite unbelievably) we find ourselves with a gas price of 225p/therm with predictions to go even higher. A 400%+ increase. How on earth did this happen? (rhetorical). That's quadruple+ the numbers they have used in the CPR. It makes a massive difference to the numbers and CPR. No one saw this coming, even the rampiest of rampers.
Let's be clear, they have been very very lucky. But luck is one thing, the key is to take advantage of their good fortune, particularly as gas prices are predicted to stay high for a long time.
In my opinion, I would not even be looking to sell Saltfleetby unless a very attractive offer came forward. At least 4p. If potential suitors are not talking about numbers around this level then I would press on and go full steam ahead with Saltfleetby. Stop wasting your time with them.
There may have been numerous missed deadlines (understatement of all time) and naive financial planning (the second biggest understatement of all time), but we are where where we are and the past cannot be changed.
So where are we presently? A few months away from starting gas production (the first ever meaningful revenue for Angus) at a time when gas prices have never been higher. Bring it on.
Has anyone on this board attempted to update the CPR at today’s gas prices?
Most “experts” predict gas prices will stay high for some time to come and even with the hedge in place (which could possibly be attempted to be accelerated by a new buyer anyway? - at least that is what was hinted at recently), the new numbers are multiples of the last CPR.
Potential buyers of the company know this.
With sky high gas prices (highly likely to continue) and at least 6 interested parties in Saltfleetby / the company, suddenly, almost out of nowhere, Angus finds it has something it hasn't had for several years..........serious bargaining power.
It's the same principle as selling a house...........when you have one interested buyer then you just negotiate the best deal you can and hope the buyer doesn't walk away, but when you have 6 people wanting your home, to some extent you get to call the shots and take control , knowing there is a safety net of 5 other interested parties.
A very simplistic example I know but the RNS this morning really opens up a lot of possibilities. This could get very interesting for shareholders. Very interesting indeed.
The more I think about last week’s events, the more actual hope I have.
Let’s be honest, for several years Angus Energy has been all about poor sentiment, resistence from Councils, missed deadlines, over optimistic budgeting, perceived inactivity, constant daily deramping on this chat board (I’ve never seen a set of individuals so determined to see a company fail) and above all, zero revenue.
However, this is all about to change in the space of a few weeks and months. Angus will soon be a revenue generating company. This is what we have all been waiting for. Angus Energy actually making some serious money.
By complete chance, this coincides with a remarkably high gas price (which the “experts” predict will stay high for some time to come) which even the most optimistic “ramper” on this board could not have dreamed up. No one saw this coming, or at least if they did they kept very quiet about it.
It feels like a perfect storm. The key for the share price growth is the market cap. Angus are only at circa 11 million. Forgetting the legacy assets (which can be debated at length), Saltfleetby is currently where the excitement and value lies. Management are on record as stating that even a conservative “P” case is worth something like £30+ million to Angus. A more optimistic “P” case is something like double that. And that was before the gas price rocketed!
Let’s look at the facts and what we know. It would appear the Saltfleetby gas field is something that others want. At least two other companies have made noises about this already, either directly or indirectly. There could well be more.
I really feel that George and the board need to appreciate what they have got and hold their nerve. Yes, they have been lucky with the gas price but now is the time to take full advantage.
George comes across in his (rather rare) interviews as a genuine chap who wants to do what is best for shareholders. He is about to be tested.
No doubt he is fully aware of the share price movement since he has been at the helm (although I don’t directly blame him for this) and will want to put this right for long term and loyal shareholders. He is also aware of the numbers and revenues he has attributed to Saltfleetby in interviews and presentations. They are there for all to see.
Most of all, he won’t want to let Saltfleetby go on the cheap. Otherwise, what has been the point of all the hard work over the last couple of years? To let others benefit from it just to raise a few million to pay for a Geothermal project? What would be the point in that?
Hold out for at least 3p+ George (share price) and if an attractive offer is not forthcoming, then press full steam ahead with Saltfleetby. This is what most shareholders have been waiting for anyway.
Saltfleetby will be a game changer. Others know this and are circling.