The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Sandy you keep saying that PP profits cover the current mcap, imo you are very wide of the mark with this statement. PP might make $3 mil profit this year that’s roughly £2.5 million. Mcap is £26 mil at the moment and the company is loss making. Manaila has been a poor asset since it went into production and It won’t get better over the harsh winter months either.
There are much much cheaper shares on AIM currently. RRE have a P/E of 1.7 (profit £45 mil PA) with £35 mil in the bank after buying back 19% of their shares and a mcap of just £80 million.
The market obviously doesn’t see things the way you and AP do, hence the big drop recently. But the main problem with VAST is the financial situation, T2 is no longer guaranteed and they have 5.8 billion shares in issue with a huge free float and no instutional interest. You will need massive volumes to push this back up which will get increasingly more difficult as confidence in AP dwindles.
ORT I haven’t said PP hasn’t progressed and I never said the company is in a worse position now then it was 6-12 months ago.
Sandy what are you talking about seriously? Just because PP might be making a small profit (let’s say for argument sake $3 mil) this doesn’t mean you can value the company on P/E ratio. PP might be making a small profit but the rest of the business is loss making and the running costs will be well over $3 million, hence the need for continual dilution. P/E ratio should be attained by using the overall profit of the business and VAST isn’t making any. If even if it was your calculations will still be way out.
If you don’t get T2 soon then I am afraid things could get worse.
I am off now!
This board seems to be riddled with investors who have fallen in love with this company but can’t see the wood for the trees.
What do you think Manaila’s FCF projections were before it went into production? And why after 3 years of production is it still not making a profit for the business? Just because AP says that BP FCF will be $15 mil it doesn’t mean it is going to happen. If it makes any kind of profit at all then that would be an improvement, also please let’s be realistic the chances BP producing any time are small.
GL
TBTT.
It the money can be taken out of Zimbabwe then why has AP already alluded to this problem and why haven’t they already done this? Again another jam tomorrow post. The sulphides will see net profit double, is that what AP said. How much of what he has said has come true? The board have been banging on about reaching the sulphides for two whole years now. Eureka should be in production by H1 2019, should it really? Already been delayed once and will be delayed again. Will it make a profit or will it be another damp squid like Manaila? You can’t justify a £28 million mcap when the company makes f all money, struggles to get any kind of financial backing, operates in geopolitical risky countries, has no institutional backing, BOD with little skin in the business and a CEO who embarrassingly states timelines and has never hit one. Oh and you have nearly 6 billion shares in issue with a huge free float and every time there is a placing it goes to there cronies who make sure they don’t go over 3% and sell into any small rise. Keep kidding yourself TBTT
Dodge I am sorry but that ramptatsic post is terrible and factually incorrect.
Please explain how the gold at PP covers the entire MCAP at VAST? Such a comment surely deserves an explanation? What is the net revenue for VAST’s proportion of the asset? Net Profit for VAST? Then factor in that the money can’t be taken out of the country.
The rest of your post is all jam tomorrow and it’s based on AP’s timelines. I challenge anyone to go through the RNS reports and show me when one of AP’s timelines was actually correct. Alluvials, BP, Eureka, equipment at Manaila etc. Wake up and smell the coffee. You have a MCAP of £28m, can’t make consistent profit, get continuous dilution and get sucked in by AP’s bullshit.
£82mil mcap is considerably lower then the mcap when we were at £6 before the tender offer.
The BOD are still buying more shares. MD at £6.86.
Once the shares have been cancelled the share price will only be £82 mil.
GM is at 10am today, following this anyone wanting to participate in the tender offer will have just one week to submit their orders... exciting stuff!
“Great news on placement... at a fab price of 0.53p”
Are you being serious or sarcastic? 3 placings in as many months.... 29 Aug @ 0.645, 18 Oct @ 0.6 and now 2 Nov @ 0.53.... you see the pattern emerging?
The SP will not sustain any rise until the company is making money. Which is a long way off. The BOD can acquire as many assets as they want but there will always be another placing around the corner. Not only are the placings diluting SH’s but every time they are being flipped into the market and the free float is getting bigger and bigger. Not one institution has bought shares in this loss making company, even if a group of II’s purchased 30-50% now the free float is still to big to contend with.
Will BP be profitable? Who knows. Manaila isn’t and that has been in production for years. Will BP be producing in six months? Very unlikely imo, will be surprised if it’s in full production before 2020, as they never stick to timelines, after all Eureka has already been pushed back as well. BP also needs a lot of explorational work also... which will require more funds.
Maybe some posters here have become addicted to this company and now they can’t see the wood for the trees. Better shares on AIM where they actually make money.
The shares are being bought back by the company. So this will reduce the number of shares in issue. I.e if they buy back 10% of the shares then the number of shares in issue will drop from circa 15 million to 13.5 million. The reason they are willing to buy back no more than 20% is because Andrew Austin already owns over 23% of the business, if they were to buy back anymore then it would take him very close to owning over 30% of the company
To be making a profit whilst trying to bring a couple of other assets into production, upgrading equipment at Manaila and carrying out exploration work is a great feat and just goes to show the huge potential VAST has.
I am looking forward to Eureka starting production, this coupled with PP about to breach the sulphide orebody makes our mcap a laughing stock on these two assets alone. $30 million has already been spent on Eureka to date and we own circa 23.75%
With production rates at 70,000 oz PA and a good price of $1225 and production costs of $700 that's revenue of $20.58 million PA and a profit of $8.82 million PA to VAST. At a gold price of $1300 that will be revenue of $21.84 million PA and a profit of $10.08 million to VAST from Eureka alone. When we hit the Sulphides at PP you could potentially be adding another $13-17 million revenue and $6-8 million profit PA to this as well. So anywhere between $15-18 million profit PA from these two mines. Then you can add in BP, continual ramp up at Manaila and the construction of the processing plant, Giant Mine, Diamond assets, Remin mines, JV on Zagra etc etc
VAST has 1.214 million oz in place at Eureka and PP = $1.49 billion worth of gold at today's prices.
There were always going to be protests no matter which party won, It would have been a lot worse if the MDC had won and not Zanu -PF. Personally I think it will all blow over within a few days, but the loss of life is very sad and tragic and the army need to show more restraint.