George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
I would be surprised if many PI’s were to sell now, if they did they would most probably be making a serious loss on their original investment. Now is the time for SH’s to be averaging down and for new PI’s to scale in before finance news arrives. Expecting a big re-rate once this happens.
333 million shares traded today. Bearing in mind the VAST majority of these shares were traded after 2:15pm that is good going. Could easily see consecutive days where we trade between 500 million and 1 billion a day going forward. I am just glad that it's not just me who sees great value at current prices.
The dilution and conversions have already started. $500K converted today in return for 160 million shares. So another $1 million to go or $2.5 million if both tranches are converted. So lets say they convert all of the $3 million then we could be looking at an extra 1 billion shares. Personally i think we could get through these quite quickly after all 160 million have already gone and over 300 million have already been traded today alone (would of been a lot higher if the news was released this morning).
It is entirely possible that AP and the Board could secure alternative funding in the next few weeks, if that happens then obviously its great news, if it doesn't happen then we just need to keep flipping these shares until they are gone.
I will continue buying down here.
Might be painful for holders with the SP at this level, but i can for see lots of new SH's coming on board a these levels. Even if they dilute by a couple of billion shares that will give them the necessary funds to get BP started, which is what we are all waiting for.
If T2 comes in then VAST will be in a much better position, then when they were trading between 0.6-0.7. They will have the funds to progress BP into production, the gold price is rallying, Diamond news is ever closer and they have cut production at Manaila to save costs, making the business financially more robust.
If T2 doesn't come in and Bergen do indeed convert then SH's will be diluted, however the mcap will still be considerably lower then where it was a few months ago. With the cash in the bank to get BP into production then surely it will only be a matter of time until the SP revisits recent highs imo. Just a bit more short term pain until Bergen finish converting and waiting for BP to enter into production.
The great thing about BP is that it has very high grades. So it will be unbelievably hard for even VAST not to make a nice profit once its in production.
So whether T2 happens or not, i think anyone buying at current levels is odds on to make money from here at some point.
They will either get T2 or they won’t.
If they do get T2 then SH’s who have been selling recently will be kicking themselves because there will be an almighty rush to buy back in. T2 will not only restore SH’s confidence in AP but it will also derisk VAST as an investment, no further dilution and funds to get the all important BP into production.
If they don’t get T2 then Bergen will convert the first tranch and perhaps the second tranch also, this obviously means more shares coming into the market and a higher mcap. Although this is not ideal for SH’s, VAST will then have the funds to bring BP into production. And with PP performing well, Eureka coming online and the Marange Diamomds coming back into action. Then VAST will find themselves in a better position then ever before, just with a much lower mcap then they have been for a long time and with quite a few pi**ed off SH’s.
I have a sneaky feeling that AP might just actually bag T2 in time, so I am going with confirmation of T2 in the middle of Jan.
Cordenadam, VAST now has the money available to get BP into production via this agreement with Bergen. If T2 lands then we won’t need Bergen. In a nut shell VAST now has the access to funds to get BP into production it’s just a matter of whether it comes with dilution or not.
The recent selling is the 68 million shares being forward sold imo. If you add up the round trades today and the 40 million trade the other day then it roughly comes to that figure. That’s why the SP may have recovered in the afternoon.
Why would anyone buy in with such a risk hanging over the company?
Good question, if we look at the worst outcome, which is VAST taking the full allocation of the bridging facility. Even with this extra dilution which is certainly not ideal, you could argue that VAST will still be undervalued, due to the recent large drop in SP. £17 mil has been wiped off the mcap on this drop, full allocation could add a few mil to the mcap at currently levels.
I see good value at current levels so I have just bought back in and will continue to scale in. If we get positive news on T2 then I think this could get back to 0.6ish (that’s now 100% return from current levels) as BP production gets closer I think 1p is achievable.
I have been negative of VAST recently. However if T2 does come in January as Mentioned by AP then that will remove a lot of the risk involved. If that happens then I will look to buy back in as the company prepares for BP production. Any positive diamond news would also be a big plus for SH’s. Merry Xmas.
Lets hope he doesn’t do another ramptastic podcast.
The business has got hardly any cash and is running at a loss, they are solely dependant on Bergen and Mercuria now. If they don’t get T2 then they will have to raise again to pay Bergen back. I find it ridiculous how AP can keep throwing out expected timelines when it is completely out of his hands. Let’s be honest why would Mercuria stump up $5.5 million for this poorly managed loss making business.
Still running at a loss then!
Manaila won’t be profitable until the plant at Carlibaba is ready? Any idea when this will be? ‘Manaila will only be a cash generator for the Company once we have built the plant in Carlibaba.’ So the new dumper and excavator fleet are not going to make Manaila profitable then.
Anyone else notice that the BP licence was obtained mid October and AP stated at that point that BP would be in production within six months, he is still saying within six months even though they have had the licence for nearly two and a half months. BP won’t be in production by the end of H1 2019 apparently. Will be surprised if it gets into production by the end of 2019 at this rate, heavily dependant on T2 and if you don’t get it then there will be a significant amount of dilution imo.
I did say it was going to get tagged if 0.4 falls, hopefully for SH’s it doesn’t fall further. I do think some people get sucked in to AP’s ramptastic jam tomorrow BS. Two things I don’t get:
If institutions are genuinely interested, why issue more shares for them? That just adds to the number of shares in issue, increases the Mcap and doesn’t alleviate the fact there are still billions of shares in free float. Normally an institution would be happy to buy on the open market and reduce the free float, especially if they saw value in the company, that’s exactly what is needed here because you have a silly amount of vacant shares
If AP is confident on T2 why bother to mention the supposedly other four options? Yes VAST may have met all obligations but that is to be expected, they are obviously not comfortable about something otherwise it would of already happened. I hate to say It but I don’t think it will happen. Genuinely hope I am wrong though for SH’s sake.
GL