Member Info for OscarIndiaLima

DEM: 75% of RKH shares at under 50p is pocket money for Jon Wood. He didn't take out RKH in recent years. Even if he wants to now, you have no real defense.

All:
Sam Moody has done a stellar job. You cannot win against the Board. They will dilute you before the Vote. Calm down. Jon Wood will not allow a cheeky takeover.

Calm down.

Calm down. Jon Wood will not allow a cheeky takeover.

"...or that negotiations have failed and, in the latter event, propose concrete arrangements in accordance with the decision for the mitigation of the risk of non-recoupment. Italy may then briefly comment on Rockhopper's proposal within 10 days..."

Get going on the enforcement in June.

The true value of RKH is the future takeout price per share. Takeout at sp 50p? 75p? £2? £10? £25? £50? £100?

NVPT is up by more than 25% since their annual report. Compare.

Revised,
31 Dec 2023. 8p
2024. 12p
2025. 15p
2026. 25p
2027. 75p
2028. £1
2029. £2
2030. £5
2035. £25
2050. £50

1) Big oil trades well below fair value. RKH is not on the radar of any new institutional buyers. US elections in 2024.

2) Low volumes, the big holders will want warrants to expire worthless so that there is no further dilution. They will keep the prices low.

3) Stay on the OM award Enforcement would partially extend. Final decision on the annulment would be 30 months after, and not at the guidance 18-24 months from Q1 2024.

4) FID in 2025 and not in 2024 because of very weak global macro, financial contagion. Navitas will do it but they will struggle with the pricing for the capital raise in Tel Aviv.

5) First oil in 2027 not 2026, because of the delayed FID.

Alternatively, high oil prices and energy mania can also set in to prove all of the above wrong.

"...work will now focus on refining the financing plan with a view to reaching FID during 2024...."

If their financing plan is ready to go, then anytime in the next few months, I expect Navitas to announce the institutional stage of an offering of participation units. Financing must be available at least a few months before FID announcement.

Keep an eye on TASE and Globes.co.il

Many Israeli energy companies have raised money via non-government bonds listed at the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. If you see info.tase.co.il/Eng/MarketData/Bonds/Search/Pages/SearchBonds.aspx you will find so many outstanding bonds of size USD 200 million to 1,25 billion from issuers like Isramco, Paz, Tamar, OPC energy, Delek and Energean. You can read more news stories about Israeli energy companies from globes.co.il Yes NVPT can raise the capital that is required for Sea Lion.

The 12/2023 expiry warrants are pointless. No more dilution. Guidance on the Award 18-24 months (Q4 2024?). Guidance on FID possibly 2024. Nobody new buys in size before the FID or the Award. Daily liquidity is very low. Helps Large holders to keep prices below 9p this year. Well done Sam.

31 Dec 2022 8p
2023. 8p
2024. 9p
2025. 9p
2026. 9p
2027. 9p
2028. 9p
2029. 70p
2030. £2
2035. £10
2045. £25
2055. £100

"RNS Number : 1267I
...as at 30 November 2022, the issued ordinary share capital of the Company consisted of 586,460,359 Ordinary Shares..."

"RNS Number : 3700R
...Company has raised in aggregate gross proceeds of approximately US$10.4 million (£8.5 million)..."

"RNS Number : 5212Q
..Result of AGM"
Total For > 88%

londonstockexchange.com/stock/RKH/rockhopper-exploration-plc/trade-recap
"Volume - monthly"
10M to 30M

My expectations - Share prices would NOT reflect the full upside until Sanction. Discoveries of hydrocarbons in the NFB and SFB to exceed 3-5 billion barrels equivalent. Reserves in the ground worth at least 1/3rd CMV Brent. Future Brent to remain above $100. Company to thrive as a stable INDEPENDENT PRODUCER in the long term. Institutional shareholders to strongly support the Board. CEO's interests aligned with shareholders'.

My Verdict- LSE:RKH IS A VERY STRONG BUY IN GOOD SIZE. LONG TERM HOLD.

"RNS Number : 5792E
...Based on legal advice we believe annulment proceedings are likely to take approximately 18 to 24 months, albeit interest will commence accruing again in December 2022..."

My expectation: Minimum 30-36 months and not 18-24 months. Compare - InfraRed v Spain

"RNS Number : 0766B
...We look forward to working with Navitas, with whom we have already developed a strong relationship, as they build on all our existing work and knowledge to engineer an appropriate development concept and put together a financing package which could allow FID to be taken at Sea Lion during late 2023 or 2024..."

My expectation: FID earliest only late 2025. Compare - Shenandoah actual FID date was 1yr later versus estimated FID date. Also - Shenandoah expected online in 2025.

https://www.linkedin.com/company/navitas-petroleum/
Senior ex Murphy Oil staffing up Sea Lion project team.
Ramsay, Armstrong, Stensgaard.

My expectation - Navitas is a very strong partner. They show intent. They can raise financing from Israel by offering participation units in their partnership, just like they did for Shenandoah. They have track record. They are credible.

"RNS Number : 9884H
"enable us to progress our understanding of these highly prospective licences in the south - in particular, the PL011 licence which adjoins the Borders & Southern Darwin discovery"

My expectation - Rockhopper will explore and make new discoveries in both NFB and SFB.