Member Info for OsakiSushi

5219 I should have type. Oops

This 'un popped up as being of interest in my end of day lists so I ran a chart on it and guess what, it isn't. It would have to break 118 tomorrow to start to be capable of being interesting. Moving on, I'll cut and paste my software summary for the immediate trend for the market overall;: "Immediate market trend based on sector movements: Doomed. A down day. :" The suggestion is that there will be turmoil in the major miners along with the banks and that will tend to be a bad thing. On the FTSE itself, the numbers I see as being crucial in the opening hour are 5263 and 6219. A break of either the upper or lower will tend to signal the market movements. If the lower number is breached, 5183 becomes the next level of interest but those who examine charts for patterns would be wise to view the FTSE over the last two months and draw their own conclusion. However, gloom aside, if the upper number is breached, the next movement should be to break out of the current downtrend and into the 5290's. LLoyds, if I see 68.6 in the first hour, will convince me to open a short but the reversal is only at 70.8 BP is in a really tight position with the trend signals at 389.7 and 393.5 in the first hour or so. As can be seen from the above, the logical trends are all really tight and the market must be on the edge of doing a breakout. In one direction or another. I recently did something REALLY stupid (aside from pressing SELL instead of BUY on LSE Spreads earlier today. A bit of a whoopsie, especially as I'd already done all the right analysis and it was obvious where the FTSE was going intraday. SO I bet in the other direction which made perfect sense. I took a hit rather than let the situation get out of control. That was also stupid.) When you move house, it can be foolish to let people know you've moved. I sent an email to the sort of folk you exchange Xmas cards with and forgot all about it. Sunday and two texts arrived on my phone at lunchtime. The first one was from someone I'd not seen for 20 years telling me she was heading to mine as she was in the UK for a few days. The other was from friends in Glasgow who'd decided the weather was foul so they'd catch a ferry over to see my house. And could I pick them up at the port. Nine people in total dropping in unexpectedly was tough. Tougher still was cooking dinner for all eleven of us at a moments notice. The exact opposite of a lazy Sunday afternoon followed and we eventually got our house back by 9pm. At time of writing, the dishwasher is completing the final load of cleaning.

Actually, a wee bit of work I did for Conoco or Chevron paid for this view, not the stock market. I've only been trading since late 2008 with any serious motive (though did buy my wife some stocks when she turned 30 quite a few years ago. Some of them even made her serious money which led to an MX5 needless to say.)

I'm NOT posting this in regular 'cos some of the guys there seem to attach an almost mystical import to my ramblings on its price movements. I'm more suspicious some MM actually is reading the chat on the forums. Anyway, software has given a strong indication that the price is about to move again. Good number for any trades to breach on Monday is 5.25 and really bad number is 4.84. The RNS earlier this week was interesting insofar as it did not cause a massive software spike but instead, the price went up by a reasonable amount, the spreads tightened to an unusual 0.25p and the volumes were up by around 800%. Given the RNS was the first indication that VIY should perhaps be taken very seriously now, I am happy it is not showing irrational movements. A nice steady climb will do - and if it spikes to one quid, Sushi will leave the building happy. That's me finished ramping. On the market in general, bit of an odd day. Software is not able to predict Monday which is both good and bad. It's always wrong on Mondays anyway and when it cannot spot a trend, there seems to be irrisistable downward pressure. For the FTSE in the first hour, I'm showing 5215 needing breached to suggest the immediate downtrend has ceased with confirmation around 5270. 5182 will suggest the downtrend is going to accelerate and 5323 would suggest there is no longer a downtrend at all. On BP, the bad number in early trading is 387 and the good number is 395. A breach of the lower number would suggest a visit to the 360's. It's funny how the market can effect one. (That sounded posh) I've always prided myself on only needing 6 hours sleep but given the manual labour involved in this sodding house <grin> have occasionally gone to bed around midnight and still find myself snapping wide awake at 7.45am, one minute before my mobile phone alarm starts bleeping. The disadvantage to this internal clock came recently, my wife and I had an accoustic session which went on until 4am. I was resigned to sleeping in and given a fair certainty of how the market would open, didn't care. (An accoustic session involves our guitars btw...) Of course, 7.45am and wide awake but needed a nap at the close. The thing they don't tell you about living in a rural area is the chances of 'getting a man in' to do anything is next to zero. I am really not a DIY fanatic but benefits outweigh the downsides. Oh, someone asked for a photo. Not finished yet but here's the view tonight; http://s929.photobucket.com/albums/ad133/osakisushi/charts/?action=view&current=sunset.jpg

In my opinion (which may well be utterly wrong) I think life may get interesting should it recover as far as 5206. At that point, I would watch carefully. Or decide to do nothing which is a safe option. I now try to only do one trade a day as there is a risk of getting 'on a roll' at which point it will all go wrong. As for BP, no idea where this is going but keeping it on screen.

Only advice I can give is don't bet against the market direction and wait until at least 9.30 before trading to get a feel of the day and try and open and close a position before 10am. Things are so jittery at present that the wrong announcement about the color of toilet paper will bring things down <grin> So avoid being exposed on the hour or half hour intraday.

Ok, you asked. I've done my end of day roundup and software predicts an UP day in early trading tomorrow. But tomorrow is Friday, so it will probably be wrong. There is a chance it may open up by 0.2% but it all depends on Asia overnight. Two numbers for BP. tomorrow in the first hour and they are 401 (good and I will go long) and 385 (I'd consider a short) The FTSE is in a much scarier condition than I'd thought. It broke its lower support today when the DOW opened so I intend to change my thoughts from positive on the market to concerned a bit. The downward climb arrested itself slightly but if the FTSE were a share I would not consider buying it unless I saw over 5241 in the first hour. Similarly, anything less than 5206 in the early part would make me open a short. What really worries me about these movements is there is a logical bottom to this mess and it's computing as 4933. Which is bad though will provide opportunities. I think a lot will depend on Australia's election this weekend as if the 40% mining tax is abandoned, the major miners may well surge and change the sentiment on the market. It's not fair though. The market should be recovering at this time of the year! It was doing nicely, right up until 1.30pm As for the coffin, I decided to explore the crawl spaces in my incredibly complicated attic in a hunt for a chimney. My wind-up torch illuminated this polished mahogony oblong box shape with brass handles resulting in a Hammer House of Horror escape in reverse back to the hatchway. My wife refused point blank to go up and view it. Eventually we arrived at a compomise which involved the remote shutter control for my camera and a long pole. The coffin was actually an enormous drawer which contained a "companion set" for the now skipped electric fire. In the master bedroom, there was a large wall width handcrafted wardrobe which had the bottom drawer missing. Now we know. And nope, still no chimney.

Nope. I actually stopped my L2 subscription when I eventually decided I could not ever hope to understand what I was seeing, hence my fascination for what the actual prices shares are being traded at are. You may get a better answer by asking on the Vialogy forum in regular as a couple of the guys there seem to see Level 2 things I've never understood. Or is there anyone on Premium can explain it?

Policing a sailing race when the wind is not blowing and the water is like glass for 3 hours is a bit like trying to trade when the market flatlines. That was my evening tonight. Got to rescue loads of sailors though but these rescues involved throwing them a line and towing them back to harbour. Why does someone not throw BP a line. I think when it stopped being front page news, we all assumed the SP would recover but good 'ole Insect Urine continues to flounder. (insider joke from the old days) The really bad number tomorrow is 396 which if breached suggests support at 385 will be tested. The however is at 403 which would indicate resistance at 446 would be probable. Of course, being BP, it will test both within the first few hours and leave me more befuddled. Did anyone notice CRX twitching into life finally. The recent RNS about the US takeover they did was actually very interesting and coupled with the RNS today about the directors buys made everything seem interesting. I remember Moosh punting it some time ago and I've kept it on my front screen and occasionally charted it. It broke its logical downtrend on 6th August and I've been waiting for movement since. Whilst I try and avoid dealing in AIMS, I think there are a few posters worth listening to. QQ. was interesting today. It has conformed to 'normal' trendbreak rules and is now in the dodgy position where I'd be careful with any short position. 107.1 is bad tomorrow and 107.8 is good. As for the market itself, software trumpets the initial trend is for an UP on the FTSE. Given what the DOW closed at, it's probably right. I'm showing 5304 as a bad number to breach in the first hour or so as it leads to support around 5261. But with the DOW closing as it did, the FTSE should open up at around 5320 so the good number of 5323 is probable. Big thanks to the person who reminded me about LGEN yesterday. That's the first time I've actually acted on a Private Message from a lurker in premium who'se never posted! This cottage is several hundred years old. We've bought a woodburning stove to fit into the fireplace which boasted a gleaming 3 bar coal effect electric monstrosity. This afternoon I decided to actually get around to fitting the stove and discovered a problem. The fireplace is not a fireplace. It is an old doorway which sometime in the past was an entrance to the house. But the house was extended and a bathroom is behind the blocked off bit. There is no chimney. Crawling around the attic and I cannot find anywhere a chimney may have been. The exterior walls are all 3 foot deep and not one of them reveals a chimney breast. The house has been reroofed sometime in the last 30 years but I'd assumed there would be somewhere I could stick a bit of steel pipe through. Nope. How the heck is Santa going to visit?

This is looking promising. I've been waiting for this since the flatline broke on August 6th and was getting a tad concerned. Wonder how far this will go.

Rockhopper, despite the euphoria of today, remains within a logical downtrend. However, the downtrend will be broken if the SP. exceeds 313 in the first couple of hours. And will be confirmed if it drops below 290. I was checking numbers this morning early on and commented in an email that the FTSE had shown it's new trend at 9.25am. But genuinely did not expect the day it was. Whilst their was a possibility of 5350, I closed my initial long at 5335 and cheerfully went short between 1am and 1.30am which worked out. For tomorrow, if we see less than 5331 in the first hour, there is a chance the market is retesting the breakout but if we see 5352, I would personally be careful with any short positions. Unless some bad news breaks of course. Maybe BP will do something daft... On BP, the share has be trawling the lower upward trend line and it looks like we may see some commitment in the first hour or so for where it intends to go. Anything below 405.6 would alarm me and anything above 409.7 would inspire me to go long. Just for giggles, I looked at 888 in the hope of seeing something to make it worthwhile. Nope. For further hilarity I looked at Yell and .... it potentially is maybe even thinking of bottoming. Good number is 18.77 and bad number 18.53. TW is similarly tight at 28.12 and 27.7 so the first hours tomorrow may reveal something. Dunno if I've mentioned but I tend not to do any trades until after 9.15 - more usually 9.30 'cos it's perfectly possible for a stock to exceed the high number in early dealings then fall back due to announcements or more correctly, fear of announcements. Life in our wee cottage proceeds apace. Having learned that I really am not a master plasterer, last night I covered all my sins with lining paper and today, spent a fun hour or so puncturing all the bubbles before painting the stuff. Just wish I could stretch lining paper over some of the dodgy AIM deals I've done since starting out all that time ago. I bombed the hedge with wasp killer powder and got the lawnmower out to discover why it went berserk. The clutch had disintegrated and locked it in drive. Lawnmower clutches are not cheap!

Actually, I was playing with BP this morning briefly before taking the dogs out so already have the answers. It remains within its uptrend (just) and is skating the support which is currently around 404.8. If I saw any trades going through below such I would be alarmed but I'm biased toward longs on BP currently as the top end of its logical channel is around 460. As per my post last night though, I'm being a touch cautious and following the market showing the first signs of an uptrend earlier, tending to bias toward long positions. (That's a polite was of saying I'm painting a room and keeping my fingers clear of the keyboard. Tonight I should be able to analyse the numbers. Once I get the paint out of my hair.)

MATD is showing a couple of dangerous signals. Any trades below 128.25 could be confirmation of them. Whilst it's been virtually flatlining since breakout, the lows are getting lower so logical support could crumble. Obviously a +ve RNS would render the foregoing as rubbish. As for the market today, I've always described an expert as someone who can explain where they went wrong. I cannot explain such except that I should have added a caveat above my higher number for the FTSE that if 'zzz' was breached, the foregoing will be wrong. When 5238 was hit, I close my short but was unprepared for the rest of the day. For Tuesday I'm showing 5283 as the good number in the first hour and 5271 as the bad number. It's too close to call and my short term trends converge by noon! Even the longer term trends converge by Friday. The only thing I can say with a degree of certainty is that we're about to see the new trend but in what direction? Until I know, I'm not going near the market. I was once stuck on Mont Blanc in whiteout conditions and the market feels that bad. On other stocks, QQ. has broken its downtrend and I expect it to recover before testing the breakout. Maybe. Even BP. is fairly tight. I'd a nice short running on it which I closed this afternoon. The good number in early trading is 413 and the bad number is 405. GKP is - as you will guess - shown in red numbers so I do hope they've an RNS. It's not a share I can short through LSE Spreads and the spread from other brokers is frankly silly. I've a daft theory as to why the market is behaving stupidly. The Ausies are having their General Election in 4 days time and the opposition party (a coalition) have said they will scrap the mining tax proposals. Until the results of the election are known, there is still the risk of the 40% tax being inflicted should Labor be successful. As the mining sector is a disproportionate driving force on the FTSE, this 'may' be the problem. And as for the DOW, it did similarly stupid things to the FTSE tonight. I remain clueless. I've never noticed (despite my wifes acidic comments on several occasions) that when we've friends with children visit, the parents seem to absolve responsibility of their offspring and essentially hand the remote controls over to us. The last year (has it only been two days) has been no different. My face is sore from maintaining the patient smile. Thankfully, no more guests until the end of this month. I was going to draw an analogy between the way our visitors behave and any temptation anyone may have of relying on the chart signals I see. But I think BoredMum is much better at that sort of thing than me so err, um. I'm finished.

Thought I'd be the first to reply <grin> I appreciated your concern once I glanced at the chart. If any trades were to appear below 1.34 I personally would leave the building but the good news is that it's a hair away from bottom and may bounce. If it does, leave a note here and I'll comment on the bounce logic.

Yell Monday. 19.8 good and 18.8.bad in the first hour... I still hate yell

Took a look at GKP this morning and noticed something potentially risky. Essentially, if any trades go through in the first few hours below 111, that would be a pretty strong signal that the uptrend since July 20th could be over and a period of relaxation is being entered. If such happens, there is the risk of a load of people taking profit very quickly and the relaxation could be quite swift with a potential base around 93p. As it is charty rubbish from a hungover old bloke.... well you know what I mean. I got a nice wee note from Admin telling me quite a few voyeurs in Premium are now reading this garbage, so guess I'm doing something right. Did anyone open a short on QQ. yesterday as per the signals shown on Thursday night? Well done if you did. Monday is looking quite weird, so I've decided to write out my ground rules for trading on the day in the hope it makes sense - to me also! On the FTSE first, I've got TWO good numbers and TWO bad numbers as the market has behaved in almost perfect accordance with the rules - hence my problem with the good and bad numbers both being tested intraday. We've all heard the term "testing the breakout point" and put quite simply, that is what has been happening. Since the market broke its immediate downward plunge on Thursday afternoon, it has been conforming to the rules. I am never going to post this signal logic again but for the first hour on the FTSE +5273 Good +5287 Very Good -5242 Bad -5218 Very Bad Dependant on what numbers are tested, If FTSE greater than 5273 but does not exceed 5287 in the first hour, expect a retrace to 5238 before the next bounce If the drop is below 5238, real possibility of 5218. If 5218 passed, market is going down. If 5287 is passed (in the first hour) market has turned bullish and next hiccup is around 5385. And if 5218 and 5287 are tested in the first hour, I will stop posting <grin> As they say, no plan survives contact with the enemy but above, that's the sort of thing I work out before the market opens. On XTA for the first hour, 1005 is the good number and 982 is the bad number. (Makes life simpler just given the info. that way) Now to tidy the house up prior to tomorrows guests arriving. Fortunately, these friends have children so we shall have a sensible couple of days. But no plan survives contact....

VIY has been my "private" playground for the last 2 years and today, finally, there was the breakthrough moment. So what do the guys in the forum do - a wee private club and we all exchange emails off-forum. They do a Moosh and shout wooo briefly, then say nothing for most of the day. I decided some serious ramping was in order as it was safe. This was the breakthrough moment and no-one would get burnt. The only problem is I'm not very good at it so was reduced to commenting on the Google Alerts coming into my mailbox (24 by close). How the heck does one actually ramp a share?

One of the hazards of this house is that people visit. Tonight was one of these nights and our guests have finally departed to a local hotel - in a taxi. So, I am doing my end of day analysis in a less than fit state to type, so forgive the fact that my diction is probably correct and I'm avoiding missing all the usual words and inserting daft spelling mistakes. Essentially, the software report for the end of day made pretty grim reading and QQ. was not mentioned as viable but as I once rented a house to the company whilst they carried out missile tests <not kidding> I do tend to keep an eye on them. They paid the absurd rates for the one month rental without a quibble, simply 'cos the property had wireless broadband. Anyway, on QQ. Two numbers for the open. Should I see less than 115.6 in the first hour, I shall go short. Should I see more than 116.9, I shall cheerfully buy some shares. And should I see both numbers, I shall run around like a headless chicken. (RBS and XTA did that to me this morning and I'll confess I'd no idea how to react. Oddly, had I gone long OR short, there was a getout with profit position.) However, QQ. has a habit of moving pretty fast within its current 115 - 140 range which will hopefully prove useful. On the market in general, software says Flat to Low Down which being Friday 13th will be wrong. The FTSE itself is in an interesting position, despite the red wine tonight. If I see anything below 5263 in the first hour, I would expect the downward trend to continue. Anything above 5272 would suggest the trend for the day will be up. However, anything above 5285 will indicate the overall downward trend is probably completely over and the market is changing direction. Which ties in with the drivel I wrote last night. As for Yell, only one number and that is 20.09. Anything less is going into uncharted territory. This tiny wee house is having constant streams of visitors, all of whom sit in awe watching the boats, the seal, or the cormorants doing their YELL impersonations by falling like stones into the sea. Unlike YELL, the birds resurface. Oh, anyone interested, BP's downtrend looks to be officially over so I'd be really careful with any short positions unless you know something clever or Obama declares war on Milton Keynes. Similarly for UKC and CW.

Two numbers firstly, then the drivel. If we see less than 305 in Barcs in the first hour, the retrace is continuing and I would incline toward short positions. If wee see more than 321 in the first hour, I'd be tempted to go long. And now, the drivel. Why oh why do I not read and pay attention to my own evening analysis. Two Fridays ago, I warned that something had changed in the market. Last Friday, I commented that the market feels like a share coming off the top. Guess what the market did. And did I actually heed any of my own comments? Did I heck and have been running a bias in favour of going long as everyone knows (???) the market will often spike upwards in the last few weeks of August. But according to these talking heads on telly, we're probably heading for a 2nd bottom. Except for one salient common trend which has been going on for years. The week AFTER the earnings season finishes is historically pretty dreadful and historically, is followed in the last two weeks of August by an uphill bullish trend. I'm not going to wax lyrical about whatever share took my fancy tonight from the VERY SHORT list but here's a couple of numbers for tomorrow. On XTA, anything below 998 in the first hour will be very bad and anything above 1012 would suggest it is bouncing off resistance to the next stop which is around 1031 On RBS, bring back Sir Fred. <grin> Alternatively, a move above 46.8 trending down throughout the day to 46.3 will signal an end to the current decline. It is currently 6p above its eighteen month resistance line and at this rate of descent, will hit it on August 17th. Equally a move below 45.4 in the first hour will indicate the rate of descent in increasing. More importantly, has anyone noticed GedW and BM have not been posting. Apparently they've both got dislocated shoulders from trying to pat themselves on the back. (Well done guys for picking a winner in the middle of a storm)

I'll have what you are having! That was a good call on the FTSE today so sorry for the cautious advice. That's why I produce my two numbers for the next day. Latter intraday movements did not suggest this was coming and as I'd done ok on the DOW last night, was feeling bullish. Oops