RE: SKC. Good News19 Feb 2011 00:18
With regard the stock market, it did something pretty important this week and managed to exceed its previous high. From a nerdy perspective, I regard that as quite reassuring. It does not mean it won't go down but the underlying trend remains stolidly up.
And that ties in with a couple of conversations I've had recently. I've an odd qualification which allows me to wear a dayglo jacket and hard hat, doing pre-demolition survey's and plans. So far this year, I've worked three days but more importantly in the last 10 days, assisting a family member who suckered me into doing the exceptionally boring course.
He's been overwhelmed with work and grudgingly called on me to assist. As a result, I found myself meeting the managers of a couple of major shopping areas who were both anxious for the survey to proceed - allowing things to be knocked down and new things to be built. Think about it.
On Vialogy
I am hating that gap at 3.375. If you've ever ridden a motorcycle, you will have learned never to focus on a hazard as you will tend to steer toward it. And that gap is messing with my brain.
From a chart perspective, VIY broke above its one year downtrend on January 4th. This is usually a good thing. But not for VIY
On Jan 21st, it tested the trendbreak level and closed above it. Usually a good thing. But not for VIY
On Jan 25th, it moved below the trendbreak level but closed above it. Usually, this is a bad thing. But not for VIY
And again on 8th, 15th, and 16th February. Usually bad but not for VIY.
On Wed this week, the price started to bloom and was knocked back by the 'surprise' TVR yesterday. Does anyone still believe these are accidental?
To my eye, it is being restricted in a firm trading channel from 3.75 up to 4.38. The attempt to escape that channel on Jan 20th was knocked firmly back.
And so, what does all this mean?
Firstly, it is well nigh impossible to day trade.
Secondly, if it is being tightly controlled, I would still expect that gap to be closed prior to a substantial RNS.
Thirdly, it is being controlled for a reason and when they release the brakes, it will be unexpected and probably quite fast.
While writing this, I decided that I shall emplace a buy order at 3.5p and leave it running for 30 days.
I suspect we shall see a movement that most folks will call a treeshake intraday which is going to close that gap, then the next day we shall see the good RNS which brings it radically up. What is interesting is the FIVE YEAR downtrend line is currently at 5.6p, so a move up will also breach the big important line and we may see fun and games.
The logic I'm employing pretty successfully nowadays would suggest a target of 20p assuming the 5 year line is breached in the next 30 days though I've an initial stutter showing around 10p now - perhaps a viable short term target.
HOWEVER, if they do not close that gap, the best I can forsee is a move to around 8p
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