SENX15 Nov 2020 18:18
So, having tried to work my way through the historical RNS and bits I've found on general google searches (DirectorTalk Q&As were good) I'm still content with my 'punt' entry here at 3.16p. I think I'll give it this week to see how the SP moves (hopefully in an upwards direction of course, ha!). I feel that although there is the obvious concern regarding repaying the outstanding loan (as is to be expected given the current climate and oil/gas prices) I have gleaned a fair few positives from the latest results that give me enough confidence to maintain a position and await a decent return. I mean, this statement alone would add significant value to most stocks:
"For the nine months ended 30 September 2020, average production (boe/d) increased by 1,247 or 107% to 2,415 (2019 - 1,168), consisting of 1,841 (2019 - 814) in Romania and 574 (2019 - 354) in Tunisia, an increase of 1,027 or 126% and 220 or 62%, respectively".
Additionally, they have now received approval from NAMR to amend the last outstanding work commitment for the third exploration phase of the Satu Mare Concession and was granted a 12-month concession licence extension until 27 October 2021. Also, scrapping a seismic commitment and replacing it with a commitment to drill two wells - one as early as Jan 2021 is in itself worth getting in at this price imo. Not forgetting the possibility that they will soon own 100% of the Satu Mare Concession now they have filed a Request for Arbitration (they are seeking a declaration affirming the Company's rightful claim of ownership of OEBS 40% participating interest).
Ultimately, although the following statement is the main concern I believe the above listed positives far outway it:
"The base case cashflow forecast indicates that the Group will continue its operations for the foreseeable future and will be able to realise its assets and discharge its liabilities and commitments in the normal course of operations. However, the base case cashflow indicates that, under the current assumptions, the Group will not be able to repay the 30 June 2021 revised instalment under the Deferral Agreement".