Member Info for originalharrystamper

Strangy and Wenglish - perhaps my use of the word ‘entirety’ has confused matters. What I meant to imply is that the ‘bigger picture’ of how the Uskmouth plants will affect Wales as a whole will need to be evaluated and considered as they weren’t fully considered by the Local authority of Newport. It is not simply a matter of approving some additional infrastructure and changes to the current layout, it is the following:

1. Weighing up the CO2 emissions of the plant once re-energised, against the current ZERO emissions currently being produced. Wales as a whole has a limit of how much CO2 they can produce from ALL producers, not just power plants (let’s get real, they’ll not be re-energising with coal if denied the permit, regardless of stating it’s their fall back option)
2. Impact on roads surrounding Nash due to the amount of lorries that will be in and out on a daily basis transporting the pellets and the subsequent truck CO2 emissions that would result from these deliveries that are not occurring at present
3. The fact that waste would be brought in from outside of Wales was not considered at all by the local authority and this is a big concern as it affects Wales strategy for recycling and reducing waste as part of their Circular Economy Strategy

Let me be clear, I see tremendous benefit of what SUP are trying to achieve with the concept of subcoal as an alternative fuel, I just think it seems that Wales is not keen to be the Country that starts the journey

OHS

Ultimately, I see the following NEEDING to happen for Uskmouth to succeed (imo):

1. PERMIT for co-incineration (subcoal approved) officially granted after public consideration timeframe
2. Welsh Government APPROVAL (if needed?) to re-energise as a power station (each plant is 190MW over the 10MW Moratorium limit)
3. CARBON CAPTURE implemented prior to first burn
4. FINANCING - is HANA Financial still the main source here? Their period of exclusivity has long since passed - are they still tied to the offer? Are they still interested?
5. MANAGE EXISTING DEBT - will it be restructured? How will they pay it off? SP is currently below the floor for the 3rd tranche of £2m investment (which I believe would have been due sometime in June as the 3 month marker of increments being December and March for the first 2)

Interested to read other opinions/thoughts

OHS

Agreed isas, the call in was for the current application for the ancillary facilities. However, the application is now discussed in its entirety and will therefore also discuss the impact of the plant on the environment. The moratorium was for the following:

"As a result the need to burn waste, or send it to landfill, will reduce and the Welsh Government is putting in place an immediate moratorium on new large scale energy from waste plants. The new moratorium will cover new energy from waste plants with capacity of 10MW or more, and will come into effect immediately."

It's a grey area......what category is Uskmouth in? New or existing? Uskmouth was an existing power plant with a permit to burn coal. They sought a 'variation' to that permit but couldn't get one so had to apply for a new permit. If the upload yesterday was correct and a draft new permit is to be issued for co-incineration of 2 of their 3 plants, what is Uskmouth now classed as? New or still existing? I doubt they would continue with all this effort if their was a strong chance the plant would not be allowed under the moratorium? It explains the delay in calling in the application though - they waited until the moratorium policy was official.

So my main 'thoughts' or question is; If there is a moratorium on ALL new applications and CURRENT planned ones for plants that exceed 10MW then how will Uskmouth be approved for 2 x 200MW plants?!

Hi Strangy, not sure what you mean? 'Is the following you out' - are you asking me if I'm out of SAE or if this info is out in the public domain? With regard to the moratorium comment - that was stated months ago as part of Wales' drive to reduce CO2 emissions https://www.mrw.co.uk/news/wales-introduces-immediate-moratorium-on-efw-24-03-2021/

Note the date it was released being the same as the 'call-in' RNS: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SAE/planning-update-d8eo31s4ce7wk7c.html

From the snippets of info posted yesterday and this paragraph: "Permit Variation V003 issued to Simec Uskmouth Power Limited. All LCP activities (3 units) are surrendered, 2 units are newly permitted as co[1]incineration plant." - it does fall in line with SAE's original plans to convert 2 of the 3 power plants from coal to subcoal - SAE wanted a 'variation permit' of the existing permit but it seemed they and NRW couldn't reach that conclusion so a 'new' permit was sought (by direction from NRW) for 2 of the plants as 'co-incineration'. Just the matter of now understanding what the additional conditions are and how they may affect SUP: "If you’ve concerns about the conditions we’ve chosen you may discuss this with me and I can explain why they’ve been included. If there are conditions which you are concerned you may not be able to meet (e.g. the timing or logical order of pre-operational and improvement conditions) then you should highlight these and we can consider technical adjustments if necessary" - and also, the bigger issue of the moratorium placed on large scale EfW plants in Wales!

As you know, linking the page only lists the correspondence, not the actual one you are reading. There are currently 152 on there so if you could let me know the date of the e-mail you are referring to I can sort by date to find it amongst the the other 151, ha!

EE - what's the date of that upload please? The last update was 9th June on that page. I've read pretty much every upload and e-mail on that site so if you could pin point this one by date so I can refresh my memory it would be much appreciated. Cheers

https://www.gem.wiki/Thar_Block_VI_power_station

Correction, 4m and 6 x 1m trades

So whoever this seller is looks like they’ve offloaded at least 10m shares since yesterday (4m, 2m and some 1m lots). Seems the SP holds up quite well against it so assume that once they’ve finished this will can move up? As always though, no way of knowing how many they have and how many they’re selling until a TR1 is issued. OHS

Afternoon all - just started having a read up on here. Lots of back reading to do so any bullet points from current investors much appreciated. Saw a few decent buys today and then a 4m sell to put a cloud on them - any history of a seller lurking? Surprised given the low entry point that someone would sell £24k worth at .60?

EE - the floor price was set for the 3rd and 4th tranches so the current SP is below that (13p) - they can still pre-pay if they wish but they have the option to postpone. The first 2 tranches had no floor set so they had to pre-pay the £2m each time

EE - It's not 'more cash' in that sense - it's part of a pre-payment by an investor who has so far invested 2 x lots of £2m (December and March). This is their subscription of shares from one of those investments. They can request shares at any point within 24 months of a pre-payment. 3rd one is due in June but a floor was set at 13p in which they could postpone by up to 6 months if the SP was below the floor. So basically, SAE already have the money, they are now issuing the shares. OHS

Its crazy! Some nice buys showing up though; the 200,000, 700,000 and 900,000 all look to be buys but shown as sells

Sparta - I see one of three options, taking a hypothetical approach that the variation permit will be granted and therefore Subcoal PAF 'could' be utilised:

1. Planning permission is approved by the Welsh ministers for the silos (this is the called-in application, not the conversion itself) - the silos can't be rejected on the grounds of the moratorium - it would have to do with habitability impacts as I can't see what other objections there could be. However, the moratorium on new plants and planning stage applications is still valid for Uskmouth and therefore the conversion would proceed no further as Uskmouth as we know is 20x the 10MW capacity

2. Planning permission is approved and a deal is somehow struck to allow Uskmouth exemption from the moratorium based on the transitionary benefits of their model and concept

3. SAE withdraw the planning application for the silos, thereby no longer requiring as decision by the Welsh Ministers - application to build silos elsewhere is sought and with that, a means of transporting the pellets to Uskmouth - but this would inevitably cause a whole world of new conflicts and problems no doubt - transport issues being the main one and also the fact that the moratorium may still apply

Without variation to the permit, there only option to re-energise as a power station is either to become a standard incinerator of household waste or revert to coal - but they have recently tweeted / re-tweeted in favour of coal being banished so that's not a likely fall back

There are obviously other avenues to explore but these I believe are the main hurdles to overcome. Without EP, Uskmouth idea is flat on its back, with EP gives a fighting chance but unless Uskmouth can be exempt from the moratorium on plants above 10MW I cannot see how it will ever re-energise

OHS

The permit variation, if approved, by NRW has nothing to do with the planning application and more recently, the moratorium on EfW. The NRW decision is purely on whether the current permit to burn coal can be varied to approve the burning of their propriety Subcoal PAF product. The permit variation for all intents and purpose looked likely to be approved imo, and may still be approved, but if the moratorium applies top Uskmouth then it doesn't matte what they 'can' burn if the limit is on 10MW plants. I do agree with your comment regarding transition periods and Uskmouth is certainly well poised to offer the perfect transitionary 'stepping stone'. OHS

I have to disagree - there was a 'grey area' regarding the moratorium and whether Uskmouth would be classified as a 'new' EfW plant or not. When news of the moratorium was released back in March, it stated that the moratorium was on 'new' EfW so there was hope that Uskmouth would perhaps not be classed as 'new' and therefore be exempt from the moratorium. The article now states, 'including those currently under consideration'. I agree with your comment regarding this news being priced in to some degree and the recent drop to the new 52 week low is possibly due to this. Coupled with the fact that the SP is now way below the floor price stipulated for the 3rd tranche of investment (due sometime in June) the next statement or update from the company is going to need to be very upbeat to change current mood. OHS

Net cost per well: US$1.58 MM - slide 23 from presentation (link below):

https://serinusenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Serinus-Energy-Corporate-Presentation-15-April-2021-v4.pdf

OHS

What makes you think they were buys? Look like sells to me. Timings look pretty accurate to prices yesterday