Glitch in the system3 May 2018 10:38
I feel the Sage Group�s business cycle is nearing its peak, but I could be wrong. With operating cash margin declining to the lowest since 2009, this isn�t justifying the high 20 times multiple.
Add in total borrowing of close to �1bn to purchase a business at 9 times price to sales multiple, twice as high as Sage,
it looks like more goodwill impairment is on the way. With �1.9bn, there are a few write-downs for management to implement.
My biggest worry is the company�s operating cash flow appears not to grow and have stagnated for seven years. Meanwhile, market valuation is doubled, despite the share price falling by 23%. The rise could be down to bull market.
My last concern is the company�s ability to increase their dividends given the high total borrowing and stagnate cash flow. Management may continue increasing their dividend for a few more years, but when they decide to make another large acquisition this could hamper dividend growth.
Unfortunately, I wouldn�t feel comfortable investing at Sage Group�s share price at this level, knowing earnings is at single digit growth.
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