Petrofac's Future Looks Bright - X-mass eve Note.24 Dec 2023 09:09
I have followed Petrofac for 10+ years.
There was a period, around about 5 years ago where I saw other companies such as WG make a lot better decisions with regards to where the company's future was headed and diverting projects away from O&G, due to the 2015-2017 oil price drop.
At that time there was also the looming SFO investigation that I'm sure a lot of us thought would be over a lot quicker than it was. During that period, I didn't feel confident in Petrofac's ability to sustain their business at previous levels and there was one RNS they released at that time that made me think of their priorities... which did not align with shareholders (following trends and no real grip on the situation).
Reading through the latest RNSs this year, it's clear to me that they have made some serious changes to that way of thinking, and have built up such a big order book for the future it's clear to me that they now mean business, becoming a real contender in the energy sector once again. There sure has been a 180 turn in strategy done over the past couple of years.
On this basis, I started to take more interest in the company, however was not holding, even as the SP got worse and the company's future got better (the last year and this one). The SP here will catch up again, IMO, it is a lagging indicator of the company's true position and like a lot of things these days, can be easily manipulated by bad press and fake news. Just as the shorts tried to attack and we all seen a bloody steal at lower SP levels. Clear away the fog and the negatives (interest rates, Inflation, doom and gloom, net debt... anything that plays into the media or shorters hands) and you will start to see a clearer picture of the company that Petrofac is setting itself up to be once again.
With news looking more positive worldwide in 2024, I'm sure this is an investment I'll be happy to be holding well into 2025.
I am one of the fortunate ones who also bought in at 15p, however, you will not see me selling any of these and I will be adding along the way as we progress back to a minimum of 70p prior to any positive results being issued by the company next year. I am of the way of thinking that after positive results are posted in the next year, PFC will be upwards of 100p (and more) getting back on track to being a competitor to WG in the sector. I may also hold out for a divi the years following and IMO anyone who get's in at anything around 30p-40p today will not look back. Just better hope you get in before more serious II take control.
On the note's of liquidity and debt, I see these as being a minimum risk from here due to positive outlooks in 2024 and the massive potential PFC has that even creditors can not ignore.
Onwards and upwards, PFC - STRONG BUY.