Member Info for OrangeMoon

It's getting easier and easier to see who is genuinely invested here and who isn't. There is some good /conservative information to be had in both sides - however the scales tip considerably here in the positive direction, try to keep your emotions out of it and stick to informed decision making with the best of your own ability.

IMO @Guinness, although TA of your gaps has a minor probability (very minor), I'm with Mary on this one. And not to state the obvious here or cause any offence, she is the more reputable trader/investor and has provided far more value here than you. Not to mention the positive backing from other professionals on this BB/forum.

@Reality, again your points I have looked into, you seem to be very conservative, each to their own investment.

For everyone else who are genuinely invested, all the best to the start of this year. Onwards and upwards.

Reality... Flattered that you feel my posts have been insider trading, a lot of them have been correct so far I guess.

My identity will remain anonymous at this point in time, I will also reply to walkietalkie in due course.

Good post there Hanoii... I can agree with you that the companies fundamentals drive it's stock share price 'long term'.

However Petrofac is currently facing 'short term' problems and the vultures that are short hedges have dived in 'short term'. This can be seen as only 1 of these hedges was around longer term. The others have turned up due to the smell of blood (around 21.11.23) and due to negativity surrounding company, negative news at the time regarding interest rates, inflation, increased net debt, among other things. They went in for the kill adding to the downwards spiral. I think the fundamentals are looking much better here now and long term Petorfac will be a profitable company once again. IMO You are wrong to say shorts do not affect this company as a higher proportion of shares (50%) are held by retail investors/general public where sentiment is an important part of that.

I appreciate your insights none the less. It's always good to have a balanced view.

Using the average price of the day and the increases short position % reported, the following have been calculated as profit/loss* of 3 more hedges:

*(Note: Due to short tracker only reporting shorts after 0.5% - the initial open short short position had to be calculated at a higher average. The average I have used is the difference between 80p and their first reported short price and 0% - therefore if a short position was first reported at 0.54% @ 37p, I have calculated a GENEROUS first open position of 0.26% @ 58.5p).

Whitebox Ad. - (£246,747 initial profit before reporting shorts minus £151,800 reported ) £94,947 Profit.

TFG Asset. - (£391,662 initial profit before reporting shorts minus £306,000 reported) £85,662 Profit.

Tages Cap. - (£246,747 initial profit before reporting shorts minus £90,000 reported) £156,747 Profit.

From this we can deduce that all short positions open after 21.11.23 are in a LOSS, which is ALL 'reported' positions, and if short hedges truly did know something (as some tried to speculate on the downwards spiral), they would not have opened more. This has been an attack and an attempt to push this to 0. Hoping for investors to run for the hills and for a bad RNS. The opposite has happened, bulls have pushed back, RNS was good, we await one more buckshot. Helikon (Please look back at my posts for their position) are the only ones with a loss, even with a generous advantage used on non reported short

Unless anyone beats me to it that is... for now, it's off to bring in the new year 2024!

Happy new year when it comes one and all!

Tomorrow I'll post cost average of 3 more short positions here, see how much they are sweating... any info is good info.

(Whitebox, TFG and Tages) all under water at current SP. The only genuine long term short seems to be Astaris, however even their increases seem to be somewhat erratic.

You're welcome Traxpern

RealityBytes... Everything I have posted is in the public domain. Free to read, share and connect the dots.

Thanks KPA... We are all men and women of reason. I can see your views have also come more in-line with others here, that's good. I await closure (literally and figuratively)... prior to confirmation of analysis. MW already in support. The Italians (Helikon) need to work on their Duolingo score, not sure they translated that last RNS correctly.

Hi all, For what it's worth, I've done some more further analysis on PFC over last 24 hours to try and find the shorts angle here...

The positives far outweigh the negatives here and thus the balls does not play into the shorters court.

I'll start with the minor negatives... (It's best to see both sides here so bare with me)

It has been clear over the last few years (10+) Petrofac has been in a downwards slope, doesn't take a genius to read previous earnings statements to work this out, or in-fact just look at SP chart. Many factors can be attributed to this; including wrong BoD members (leading to bad contracts), not a diverse enough portfolio O&G a majority (until 2020), remember the 1st big oil crash in 2015/2016? , SFO investigation (ended 2021) and COVID (ended 2022) - 2 of these are bullets in which many companies did not survive. Perhaps this lead Hedgies to believe this trend would continue, and take a 'bet' that debt would ingulf the company and go into administration (or 0p). As soon as the share price hit around 40p they upped the ante to continue this pressure and thought process - confirmation bias in some way.

The Positives! :D... (And there are many)

A change in BoD, I do believe Tareq has been given the reins for a reason (a turn around), Building up of the future contracts (increasing customer confidence), we survived SFO, we survived COVID, the balance sheet here is the last things that's getting worked on and will improve drastically following our financial plan for the share price to get back to a fair value of 70p (however will likely go higher due to shorts overweighed position), if you look far enough... future dividends perhaps going to return in 2025.

A major turn in the company has already happened, to the pearl of the short positions, and they should have taken heed before any of us here noticed they were in trouble. Some sooner than others but IMO it's not yet too late to take advantage of their greed. It was Petrofac that first set this in action with a perfectly timed and massive RNS. Again, the pearl of the shorts, which we are now seeing their fumbling tactics to get out.

Originally I was here to burn these MF's as I am one for prosperity of a company and it's people, however I've now become long here and IMO it's well justified. Here is to a great future for Petrofac.

Yes Traxpern, unfortunately I have my own Russ/Ukraine conflict 'share' story which gave me a loss which sticks with me today. I was well over invested, however lessons have been learnt and we all move forward.

Keeppluggin, onwards and upwards. It sucks to have a big loss, no one is immune to them in this game unfortunately. It is possible to change your way of thinking, it takes time. Here is to everyone making some good money into 2024.

Keepplugging, I have also followed this company for a long time (10 years +) You're right in saying that the company AT THAT TIME was not set up for a good future (Even straight after SFO at £1 it wasn't in a good strategic position)... but looking into the last 2 years there have been some serious direction changes. Of which we are now starting to prosper from. The old Petrofac is gone (Thankfully) and a new Petrofac is here. As someone who has a balanced view and can analyze the fundamentals here, I didn't change my way of thinking easily. You do seem to be active on this board a lot but the majority of your posts have been non informative and negative, that's not good for anyone, including yourself. Especially when faced with a vast amount of positive news that's now available.

Short Term Liquidity - "The Group has continued to maintain liquidity above its financial covenant." TICK

Near Term Priority is for Long Term Potential - “To further accelerate progress, my near-term priority, and that of our Board and leadership, remains on improving liquidity and materially strengthening the Group’s balance sheet, to deliver on ****our LONG TERM potential****" TICK

Still Winning Contracts and We Want More. -"Robust business outlook underpinned by strong backlog and a healthy Group pipeline scheduled for award in the next 18 months of US$62 billion, including the remaining projects in the TenneT multi-platform Framework Agreement." TICK

To Aid Our Financial Position (Not one option, but multiple to choose from)

"This provides us with GOOD REVENUE VISIBILITY and demonstrates the continued confidence customers have in Petrofac’s delivery.” TICK

If Helikons sole position is that we will struggle with liquidity/finance/creditors... They have one shot here to get it right (hope and pray for the worst). They really did think this was going to 0 and that's why they increased at 20p (By over 50% lol). They were not expecting this RNS to be so positive.

No one was aware of Petrofacs RNS information prior to the 20th December, well played with tight lips (if they were they would not have held into their now big loss) and this should have been a call for them to de-risk, just as the other have. I'm sure we will get all the credit guarantees we require + more (if we go down the selling of non core assets).

Clearly after this minor hurdle has been stepped over, shorts will have no more reason to stick around.

IMO, the next time we hear from Petrofac (via Aidan de Brunner)... This will be the kill shot. I'm just oiling up the trigger and dusting out the barrel.

@Walkietalkie, no worries fella. After today's small drop I wouldn't be half surprised if Helikon added to their short position again today (29th), but we will find this out next week as they will be relentless to get their investment back before our new NED sorts out some credit facilities. As soon as this RNS drops I expect a very large upwards spike.

There will be a few ups and downs along the way, nothing goes stright up. As time goes on, shorts are getting ever more stretched abs i'm confident our new NED will get the job done. GLA

Thanks ge0rge123... That's what I like about these BB's. You can get a range of analysis from a multitude of people.

It would be good to see their actual loss to see how accurate this is, perhaps a bead of sweat falling from their face as they read this analysis would be a give away... however short of speaking to them (Excuse the pun) we wont know. I suppose the neg heads will just continue to say "they must know something"... but these figures prove they know HEE-HAW. And any increase will only further destroy their fund on next RNS. Risky game for them.

Don't be fooled by any further increase in short positions. SHORT SQUEEZE IS STILL VERY MUCH ON. Hence MW reduction.

Good evening Walkietalkie,

Yes, actually took a bit longer than I thought. Using the 'closing price for the day' and the 'increase reported' on that day...

Helikon have made 21 increases in small increments over the last 2 months.

Surprisingly only there first 5 shorts are now in profit (from 06.11.23 (48p) until 16.11.23 (40p) @1.11%) All other positions (16 of @ total 2.19%) increased after this time are now in a loss. The total is currently a HEAVY loss.

A rough figure that I have produced (£369,640 profit from first 5 positions MINUS £1,103,680) = £734,040 loss at todays 37.4p.

Again, this is just average and may not be entirely accurate for the day and the closing price. But... 50% of their trades (not by value but by increase on the day) were increased in the 20p-22p range. Between (29.11.23 - 19.12.23).

Previous shorts in their portfolio include (ITM, AFC, VCP) - I've not looked into these to see how they have done. Happy knowing Petrofac is currently a big loss maker for these guys. The tables turned on the 20th December and seriously burnt them as they were over-weighted.

"More ways than one to skin a cat" - With the amount of attention this share is getting and information on the open market, whether that be fundamentals, analytical, charting or even seeing something that others don't (perhaps this thread could be that)... Helikon is going to be one cold kitten this winter.

SM66 It's worth keeping note of this, as now that we know Helikon increased on 28th and we dwindled 1% on that day I think buys to sells were a 2-1 ratio?. It may also be likely that Helikon increased again today 29th (Buy/Sells ratio 3-1) and we went down 5%... For which we will find out next week. If this rings any truth, it will accelerate my accumulation.

I also take confidence from the fact that MW reduced, they are a far bigger outfit that Helikon like others have pointed out.