Member Info for Orange7

Barclays have reappeared with a 5.2% total position in BME, made up of 2.71% physical shares and 2.49% through financial instruments (CFDs, swaps, etc.). Trading Book exemption was removed this time, so this is now a fully reportable long exposure rather than a trading-book position.

Their previous TR-1 dropped to 0% only because everything was moved into the trading book, which doesn’t require disclosure. This update shows they’ve moved the exposure back into a regulated structure and increased the long side via swaps and physical shares. It’s a sizeable rebuild and looks like a strategic position rather than short-term hedging. Let’s see how it plays out.

Looks like shorts added big on the 25th but the price barely moved. Feels like they’re setting up a slow grind down to load up properly before covering at the bottom. Wouldn’t be surprised to see 170s or even 160s before the next bounce.

UT told the story today. The afternoon session held steady around 162 and then the UT cleared a big block and pushed it straight to 164 which shows buyers waiting to scoop up size. Shorts stayed around 2.53 percent with BlackRock adding 0.12, Exodus cutting 0.12 and Millennium adding 0.03. Barclays also lifted their total exposure to nearly 7 percent which looks more like steady accumulation than pressure. With the 9 Jan trading update coming up there is a strong chance they announce a buyback and the price action looks like the market is already positioning for it.

If BME keeps holding above 165p for a couple of days, the short squeeze slowly starts. Most of these funds (Millennium/Exodus etc.) run algorithmic stop-loss systems on their shorts. 165p is the pain zone, 170p is where the first covering wave usually triggers, 175p is forced reduction, and anything above 180p is full squeeze territory.

Shorts also owe the 3.5p dividend on every borrowed share, so keeping positions open is getting more expensive, especially with the CEO buying three times this week — that feeds straight into their models as insider confidence.

We’re now heading into the retail “golden period”, the strongest weeks of the year for B&M. Shorts normally avoid being exposed through December because a good Christmas update can blow the trade apart.

If momentum pushes this above 175–180p, a fast squeeze can take it into the 190–200p range very quickly. With low short interest and heavy institutional buying in the 155–165p zone, that kind of jump isn’t unrealistic.

Share price holding around 158–160p ahead of tomorrow’s ex div date (20 Nov). Buying strong around the CEO’s recent purchase zone (157–161p). CEO has added twice, 31,650 shares at 161p and 31,450 shares at 157.9p. BlackRock still above 5%. Shorts at about 2.58% but likely to trim as they’ll owe the 3.5p interim dividend (record date 21 Nov, payable 12 Dec) on borrowed stock. Big UT trades show institutions building positions in the 155–160p range. A close above 160p could spark the first short covering wave and push toward 165–175p before the January update.

Kroger shutting a few CFCs is bad enough but people are forgetting they are still reviewing the other sites too, so more closures might come. We really do not know which centres will survive. If the first batch did not hit ROI targets and triggered a 2.6 billion dollar impairment, it is not a great sign for the rest. And once a major partner openly moves away from the big automated model, you can bet other Ocado customers will start rechecking their own numbers as well. That is the real risk here. The one off compensation is not the issue, the long term question mark over the whole automation rollout is why the market is reacting this hard.

Interesting bit on the shorts vs BlackRock this week

Total shorts on BME now 2.08. Millennium and ExodusPoint added small amounts after results. Normally that level of short pressure would have pushed the price down a lot more especially on results week.

But BlackRock crossed 5 on 10 Nov which means they were buying heavily at the same time the hedge funds were building their shorts. That is likely why the share price only dipped to around 159 and bounced back instead of sliding into the 150s.

When shorts and a big long buyer hit the market at the same time you get this kind of price action. Small dip then straight recovery with no real follow through on the downside.

So far the long money looks stronger than the hedge fund shorts. Lets see how next week plays out.

Shorts stepped up before results (now 2.02% total) and yet yesterday still closed with a positive UT.

Small uptick in shorts (update from 11 Nov).

Millennium lifted to 0.56% (+0.11%), joining ExodusPoint 0.53% and Walleye 0.71% – total disclosed shorts now around 1.8%.

ExodusPoint Capital Management LP opened a 0.53% short position (+0.15% change).

Textbook tape today. Shorts were feeding the book from the open, keeping the price capped around 170p most of the day. Buyers soaked it all up and flipped it into strength late on.

The close says it all. A massive 3.9m UT buy at 171.5p for about £7m, right after a run of 10k to 36k buys in the final minutes. That’s clear accumulation or short covering, not weakness.

Support held firm at 169.7 to 170p and momentum ended positive. The real picture of any new short positions will show up mid week once the FCA data updates.

Selling pressure’s been visible from the open, looks like shorts slowly feeding the book all day. Every big buy was met with instant small sells to cap the price. Tight spreads and matching volume suggest controlled short activity rather than panic selling.

So far 169.7–170p has held as support, with buyers absorbing steady supply. Any new shorts opened today won’t appear on the FCA tracker until later in the week, so the real picture should confirm mid-week.

It looks like those sharp drops around 183–184p could be stop loss hunts.

Large funds trading through CFDs and swaps (like Barclays) might be pushing the price down to trigger retail stops then buying back cheaper.

That could explain the quick TR1 changes, more about hedging and flipping positions than long term selling.

Hopefully that’s what’s happening but we can’t be sure, just something to watch when big UT volumes appear before a bounce.

Fair point, but some of us did get the chance to load up at the lows — I’m in from 225p, so not complaining.

Still agree though, they really should’ve put this out as an RNS rather than let the trade press drip it out. Missed PR opportunity for Ocado.

😂 Looks like Gr1rmreaper’s GPS is off — he just dropped post in the Aston Martin forum instead of here! Must’ve taken a wrong turn at Silverstone… even QANTAS got called in over there!

Haha fair point, Sheltie 😅 — but Greenvale aren’t playing the Friday-to-Monday game. They’re building size while the market’s panicking. When funds like that move in, they’re looking months ahead, not a Dow blip. I’ll keep my hard hat on though… just in case

Just because Greenvale declared 5.69 % as of 8 Oct doesn’t mean they stopped buying that day — it only means that’s when they crossed the reporting threshold and had to file the RNS.it’s perfectly possible they’ve quietly added more CFDs or even started converting some into real shares.

Chill mate — markets don’t move on forum sarcasm.

While you’re busy roasting QANTAS, Greenvale quietly grabbed 5.7 % via CFDs and the brokers hoovered real shares.

Shorts are about to get a hot squeeze sandwich next week — extra spicy

Greenvale Capital just disclosed a 5.69 % stake — all via CFDs & options (no physical shares).

Brokers hedge those CFDs by buying real Ocado shares, tightening the float.

With ≈ 4.3 % already shorted, nearly 10 % of the stock is effectively locked up.

Borrow costs rise → shorts feel pressure → any good news could trigger a sharp squeeze (250 p → 300 p zone).

UT 231.60