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Https://www.gilead.com/news/news-details/2025/trodelvy-plus-keytruda-demonstrates-a-statistically-significant-and-clinically-meaningful-improvement-in-progression-free-survival-in-patients-with-previously-untreated-pd-l1-metastatic-trip

Avacta would have a safer profile for this

Taking up Ice's point about the share price; this isn't the FTSE 100 where likely future earnings are known and there is an agreed upon way via various metrics of valuing a business, price to book, P/E, EBITDA whatever. Those things are not known or knowable so it's a projection on future income for certain cancer indications. It's easy to argue until that happens it has virtually no value on those metrics. Biotech obviously doesn't fit normal valuation methodologies of established companies. It's no wonder the share price is not an accurate barometer of the value here.

DG, I know you're a bit glum about this but good things are coming. We would all probably prefer it sooner rather than later but it probably won't happen that way. Year end or thereabouts when the P1b data confirms what we already know. Company is worth north of $5 bn just for 6000 without the jewel in the crown 6103 whose market value is much greater.

I may not agree with much of what they say but they aren't the same person.

I both understood it and read it.

We can always rely on you DG to entirely miss the point.

I've had some time today to do a little digging. One of the partners for Avacta, is in effect Eli Lilly who bought out POINT in $1.33 bn T/O in late 2023. Eli Lilly (LLY)/ POINT partnered to utilise the platform for a radioligand therapies for tumour activated radiopharmaceuticals.

BV; it's in the very small print as the source of the data for the size on the markets for SGC and TNBC on page 18 of the March presentation.

He also over paid for the division which is why it was sold at such a big 'discount' ie realistic price.

Behind that Alberto is the assumption the market is never wrong. The market is often wrong and on AIM is often spectacularly wrong.

Https://x.com/i/status/1913706364247106041

Https://x.com/i/status/1913705621721080174

Exactly Safebreaker and also figuring out which dosage and frequency works best in each indication so that when you get to P2 efficacy trials you're working with the optimal regimen.

Lots of green on the screen this morning. Craig this company is owned two thirds by retail investors most of whom know what they're invested in and why, except, allegedly Wyndrum who is probably still claiming we don't know/ he doesn't know if the science works when we do know that. So who is going to sell shares worth considerably north of 25p when it's being bought by a company (BP)who is interested in the tech? No-one with two brain cells to rub together. The very intention to buy will move the share price. It's what we're waiting for and the board is not going to recommend the sale unless it fairly values the company. Some of the posts on here are irrational.

As has been written below we know for a nailed on certainty we will get standard of care in the SGC indication and later today we may find out whether they reached PFS yet. That would necessitate 4 more patients on treatment to be either dead or seeing disease progression. We have already surpassed the three and half months patients in that indication could have expected before this treatment. But that commercial success is insignificant compare to the other indication TNBC.

Hi Ice, I agree, but there are other ways of looking at it. They say they have a cash runway to Q1 next year. One assumes that includes paying bills as they are due. Interest is due on a loan and I consider that a bill that could easily be considered to have been included in their cash runway. They obviously don't think that. I agree they are doing the right long term thing but I do not think they provide much clarity in most of their communications which I think are aimed solely at oncologists and people in big pharma and practically no-one else is invited to the party of Avacta unless they are experts in this field and I don't think that helps anyone. It takes an awful lot of reading and re-reading to understand what they're really saying and why it's so impressive. Skim reading their stuff could easily give you entirely the wrong impression. You have to have a deep understanding of all the acronyms and what is a good outcome and why and what is bad and why. I know BP is THE target but I also think in the mean time the share price is adversely affected by lack of the wider market understanding of what they have. That would help especially with dilution with the CLN.

I expected a little dilution here when a I bought but I'm not sure the returns are going to be what I originally thought or when I thought. I'm interested what's your take on how this pans out? My take is even if there is amazing news on the science, nothing like that has really had a positive impact on the SP and so wouldn't expect it to now, it's still relatively early and the SP will really only move if and when there are deals signed which it appears won't be much before the years end.

Ben, the easiest way to not hear from certain people is to filter them out

I guess it depends how they see it playing out. Will it be a total T/O or will it be licence this, licence that, to get in some money with a view to selling later? Some BP may not be happy with some IP licenced out and may prefer to buy the lot. Depends how the discussions have gone and what they want to buy, and when Avacta want to sell it for most value. It's definitely worth billions already going off what other companies have gone for with less startling data. Also STS is a huge market as is TNBC. Lots of possibilities not one of them is this company doesn't multi bag from here.

Discussions are already well advanced I'd say. Just waiting for the data to push the button.

There is no point looking back. The science is revolutionary. The plan is in place and being executed. The CLN is what it is, it's a pain in backside but it's not going away. Big picture: standard of care for SGC, pathway for other indications = money + deal + upside. It's all there in front of us. Downside is there is a process that cannot be expedited and that takes a bit of patience. Upside the longer it goes on the more and better the data the more the upside. These figures are peanuts compared to the value here.

I don't think it's incompetence; I think it's that they're between a rock and a hard place and this mess is not of their own making. Choice is dilution or shorten the cash runway. It is clear therefore that they do not have any expectation of a deal before the P1b data, otherwise they would not need to worry about the cash runway running out. Plan is get interest, get data, get a deal. Getting a deal too early means less value for shareholders as the data won't support higher prices.