Member Info for OofyProsser

HITS: I agree with your 10.59 post, but do you have an explanation for the new hedges at the much higher prices, detailed in the interim report? What are they for? Do they commit Angus to sell Trafigura these quantities of gas at these higher prices? Some of the replacement hedges from the earlier Mercuria hedges are at much lower, more disadvantaged prices. I agree that it would be nice to know what’s in the full offtake agreement. I think the pricing of the new hedges will turn out to cost Angus more than the difference in the interest rates on the Trafigura vs. the Mercuria loan. And of course the new loan (Global Re-financing!) is much larger.

Re the 5-day suspension of work for installation of noise hoods etc (adding to costs and benefiting community relations, which I applaud, but being an additional cost generating no additional revenue): this is just one of seven such stoppages that can be expected per year, if the CPR is to be believed. It’s not the full annual maintenance shutdown.

When has the fat little popinjay ever been anything but bullish of Angus? He’s recommended it all the way down with admirable, though totally wrong, consistency. .

Re David Ian Jones, wasn’t Paul Forrest still buying AAOG before that went up 5he Swanee?

Fantasy: there’s your answer in the RNS. a big increase in David Ian Jones’s holding.

It was your 17.40 post that I was referring to.

Bubblepoint: The CPR assumed 10% or so annual downtime for maintenance. It may just be a part of this. It’s a pity that, if they fail to produce enough gas this month to meet the hedge terms, they have to pay the market price for the deficit and get paid just 29.6 p for it. Mirasol’s next post re production will be interesting.

By the way, someone I know got a permanent ban from here for saying he had no shares in it and had no intention of buying any. They’re all in it together, it’s best not to offer them excuses to take such actions.

Bubblepoint: can you tell me what a “turn-around” is that takes a week to complete in the case of a gas field?

Tony_currie: you’re misquoted him, haven’t you? He said next week not this week. He also said they were installing a booster compressor by the end of the year which will increase production dramatically, basically by sucking up lots more gas (I’m paraphrasing him). I’m sure Bubblepoint will have something to say about the effect of basically sucking up loads more gas - and I’m prepared to say I prefer by miles his analysis to those of his critics.

Incidentally he wasn’t very convincing about the increase expected from conclusion this week of the “turn-around”. What’s one of those, anyone know?

This could very well go back to 0.5 but if it does, it will be a p&d. On fundamentals it is not undervalued. Institutional investors may include EBITDA in their metric but they dig way deeper than that. Angus is going to keep going back to its shareholders for money. The status and motives of the concert party of the Aleph companies and Kemexon are opaque and their shareholdings and all their dealings should be RNS’d. There’s way too little information on the new offtake agreement with embedded price protection. No institutional investor would touch it with a barge pole. Kindly forget EBITDA. It’s a straw being clutched by a director who doesn’t appear to be very well informed,. Where did that 2mm. scuffs come from? A bolt ou5 of the blue and an unwelcome one. Let’s discuss that. And the absence of any gas flow at all for five days last week. The hedges this month are priced at 29.6p. The market price is in the low 70’s. At 29.6, Angus is probably just washing its face at Poundland before taking into account finance etc. costs. Let’s discuss that.

ThomasFoulser: where do you get sustained gas flow for 20 years in the CPR? P90 has it running out in 2036 and running at a loss before this. That was before Angus took the more onerous loan earlier this year. And before the gas flow started to decline at a faster rate than predicted in the CPR. I’ve no doubt production could be extended but the cost of wells and further sidetracks is going to make this uneconomic. It’s a heavily depleted field and Angus missed the boat in 2022 in the middle months when prices were extremely high and the hedges applied to gas that they couldn’t produce. They’re still paying for that. Only a massive, sustained rise in the gas price can rescue them. Me Zielicki’s “interview” was a weak affair and raised some horrors on the current production side. I hope this was a typo in his script or Angus really does appear to be in trouble.

Ocelot: Angus were less tight-lipped when they were in merger talks with Sound. It comes down to an interpretation of the LSE rules, doesn’t it? If it needed an RNS then, it needs one now.

You know the answer to that, don’t you?

Nomlungu: they’re unlikely to make it to Christmas so I should think the answer is yes.

HawaiifiveO: the property against which a major part of their loans is secured is reputed to be higher than the value of the outstanding loan. Nevertheless, Vast will do well to make it to Christmas. Who are the people buying the shares, even at these levels!? Are there really enough deluded mugs out there who believe they haven’t got a loss until they sell/ what goes down must go up etc? Whichever broker/PR person coined the term “average down” should get a “rob the poor, enrich the rich” award, AIM”s highest.

He did say that, but what close period? They’re nowhere near publication of accounts and if they’re in merger talks, they should publish an RNS. I’m seems to me he could be buying as many as he wants.

If you look at the gas production in the first week of July, it seems to me it barely covers the volume required for the 29.6p hedge. The volume last week was nil. It looks like a bad month unless this is a period of maintenance that will be followed by a big increase in production. The scripted interview may merely be a prelude to another share placing.

..and Angus can’t afford a deal with another company that would de-risk Angus. And how does a bigger AIM-listed company reduce complexity and reduce costs? Poundland will be the same project, whoever Amight merge with. As for improving management skills, who would Angus get rid of to allow better people to take their positions? This is all typical management consultant talk.

Ocelot: I don’t recall much criticism on your part of the previous management while they presided over Angus.

If Angus are in merger talks with other entities, shouldn’t they issue an RNS? They did when they were talking to Sound Energy. If they aren’t, why is Mr. Zielicki not buying shares now? Between them the Board must have 75 years of experience in the finance markets. Might this explain his reluctance?

Ocelot: carefully prepared - yes, I’m sure it was. That’s why he read it out. I’m sure Katy’s questions were headings to all his prepared answers. But it was propaganda, not a useful analysis of Angus’s current position.

Bubblepoint: apologies for part-duplication of the content of your post. I was still typing when it was posted. You’re right, of course.

Ocelot: economically exploitable reserves are what matters. £200-300mm of reserves at Saltfleetby (to which I shall refer in future by its earlier alternative moniker, Poundland) has little relationship with what Angus or anyone else will be able to extract. This is a heavily depleted field.

Incidentally, have you looked at the exercise prices of the new hedges? The price for the current three months is below Lord Lucan’s estimate of breakeven for Angus. This doesn’t seem to me to represent a “hedge”. It’s a sneaky way of disguising a much more expensive loan than appears to be the case. If you add the quarterly cost to Angus of these “hedges” and add them to the interest bill, and deduct the price of the original hedges for the period you’ll find that the new loan is rather more expensive than the one it replaces. There’s nothing in this for shareholders unless the gas price soars.

When will you start to speculate on likely merger candidates for Angus? The close period for director share dealing which Mr. Zielicki refers as the reason he’s not buying for now can only be explained by their being in merger talks or by some other price-sensitive corporate action, surely? Aren’t you excited by this?