Member Info for OofyProsser

The financing aspects of this RNS are shocking. Small investors appear to be about to suffer further substantial dilution. And that wouid be the most favourable of the possible outcomes here.

Rp6577: that’s the way to make money. Buy it and shove your head in the sand.

Excellent stuff, Ocelot. The CEO’s most recent effort to update shareholders in a video interview was last June, wasn’t it? Or is my memory letting me down? I suppose, with so few shares being held by small vs. large shareholders - and the ratio is widening - it’s not worth his while. As long as Mr. Forrest, Aleph and Trafigura know what’s going on day-to-day.

In any case, the die appears to be cast here.

WG818: re Paul Forrest’s prospective holding, have you allowed for the discounted shares that will come the way of Mercuria in lieu of a cash royalty? There are other cash payments to Aleph etc. in addition that will most likely be paid in shares. The beneficiaries won’t want to hold them for long.

WG818: my money would be on Mr. Forrest. He’s got a lot of these and more to come, as you’ve kindly detailed. It would be a shame to risk losing their remaining value. I dare say the small Trappist community running Anguish now includes all these parties in its circulation list. Only the small shareholders are left in the dark. The question they should ask themselves is this: “If I didn’t already hold shares in this, wouid I buy them now?” Still, they believe they haven't got a loss until they sell.

Bubblepoint: yes, it’s at an all time low now. But there’s likely to be some pressure on the price from all the new shares that Angus will need to issue to satisfy its present and past lenders and royalty holders etc. Unless there’s some good news to compensate, I think the scrapers of the bottom of the barrel are going to need longer arms.

Bubblepoint: yes, I accept that sales are sales and that the sales figure must be net of the gas used in the compressor. Thanks for clarifying this.

Re the velocity strings, the October 2023 CPR estimated the cost at £0.7mm. One can assume the figure wouid be higher now. The cost of new wells is clearly prohibitive. The decline in the gas flow rate, whatever the cause, is far higher than the CPR suggested It would be. It’s worth looking at the old Wingas CPR, which is an interesting read.

Re the new hedges, if current gas prices prevail, Angus will make money on them even if they fail to produce any gas. The issue in such a case wouid be how much money. It wouldn’t be enough.

Investing in this is an act of faith as much as of analysis. I have very little confidence in the Trappist management’s ability to keep Angus’s head above water. I think that’s the difference. The real money from Poundland has gone to Mercuria and to Paul Forrest and, if any, his beneficiaries.

Not really a game, Bubblepoint. I can’t see any evidence that the gas flow data since the booster compressor was hooked up were net of the 15% of gas produced that has been estimated in the CPR as the cost of running the compressor itself. Please correct me if I’m wrong. It would be typical (and understandable) for the Angus management to allow investors unwisely to apply the most bullish interpretation to the data released. These things do matter. And, as you know, velocity strings are expensive. As are the new wells that should have been drilled by now to get anywhere near the CPR’s forecast gas flows. The fact that no action has been taken in respect of these expedients suggests that they’re unaffordable.

Endorsements from some bloke from the PR company and from Malcy! Impressive stuff.

Mirasol: yes; they may have got lucky this time with the gas price.

If the gas price falls much further, Angus will be able to stop gas production and make a profit on their forward sales contracts!

Thanks for this reply, Bubblepoint. But it will take weeks to get the new compressor working at optimum level, then. The same as in 2023.

Bubblepoint: I certainly didn’t insult you when you sold your Angus shares. I should have been more likely to congratulate you instead. I’ve been consistent in my view of Angus.

Re the new compressor, will it have been calibrated, in the absence of the missing parts? The last time Angus installed a compressor, it took quite a while to set it up properly, if I remember right.

Ocelot: operating loss of £2.967mm in 2023/4.

Onetomajy: i don’t think a one is arguing that they shouldn’t have got approval from shareholders to issue tons more shares. Angus haven’t got any money so issuing shares at a discount that the recipients can then sell in the market is their only recourse. It’s the implications of this process for the share price that should worry investors.

If the rate of flow of gas is much lower than it was when they re-started the field and lower than predicted in the CPR, and falling, that is a decline. Whatever terminology you want to wrap it up in.

Onetomany: they’re not paying down debt though, are they? They’re giving shares at a discount to Mr. Forrest and Mercuria instead of paying them in cash that Angus doesn’t have - and won’t have, judging by the motions passed at the AGM. The gas flow continues to fall at a far higher rate than predicted in the CPR. The management are well paid, they don’t mind the dilutive effects on their shareholdings of these discounted issues. As usual, it’s the mugs who are losing out. Time to smell the coffee.

WG818: these chaps who are happy with all these share issues have little ambition for a higher share price, innit? Bizarre, really. The people who are getting the cash are Mr. Forrest and Mercuria. The people who are paying them the cash are the shareholders, who are getting stuffed. The company, meanwhile, lives from hand to mouth while the gas flow continues to slide.

Bubblepoint: you seem to know something about the oil and gas industry but you clearly know next to nothing about the stock market. The recipients of these share payments will sell them in the market. The excess supply resulting from this puts pressure on the share price. The share price is what’s important to most investors. I think you should stick to what you know and cease offering half-baked and insulting comments to people who understand these things rather better than you do.

That’s not quite right, is it, Bubblepoint? If Angus had the money available to pay Mr Forrest, Mercuria etc in cash, there would be much less pressure on the future share price. It’s perfectly clear that neither Mr. Forrest nor Mercuria has any interest in raising their equity stake. They’ll be selling and they’ll have quite a lot to sell. And Angus is not retaining more cash. Angus hasn’t got more than a small float. It has to pay in discounted shares. Dilution does matter. It does reduce the value of investors’ equity.

What’s the latest on the new compressor?