Member Info for OofyProsser

Mirasol: there are two charges outstanding. One seems to be in Mercuria’s favour, the other in Trafigura’s. If Trafigura were able and determined to exercise their charge, Mercuria’s charge would also he exercised and, being the earlier of the two, would presumably take precedence. I’m no lawyer, though!

It’s hard to see anyone with money invested here doing very well out of the most recent developments. Angus seems to have chucked in the towel on Saltfleetby and consequently has very little, if anything, to offer a potential bidder.

Malcy, Ocelot and Flagstaff! Not quite a full house, but 3 of a kind.

Onetomany: it’s possible that it may improve the financial prospects of some Board members. It’s very unlikely to make any difference to shareholders. The management has finally bitten the bullet and admitted that Poundland is uneconomic.

Still, the lemmings here haven’t lost any money until they sell, innit?

WG818: you should award yourself a deserved pat on the back.

What would Angus bring to the table, it’s close to bust, if not bust already? It has weak, uncommunicative management. It’s losing money. Its principal lender has given it 6 days to pay off the first instalment on its loan. It stretches credulity to suppose anyone would want to take them over. If the people concerned want a stock market quotation, there must be many better candidates. Perhaps the AIM status may be worth 0.0001p per share in a takeover?

,

“Pretty sure if they where they Zim would not have released them to vast..”

It’s at least equally likely that the thugs in charge in Zimbabwe have exchanged missing diamonds for blood diamonds. They are in “parcels” not “a parcel” - which is how they’ve been referred to consistently hitherto.

And this criticism of asimpleinvestor is uncalled/for. Surely it’s possible to discuss these issues in a civilised way, rather than pick on a well informed poster in this way. It appears the aim is to shut him up. Try to ignore them. asimpleinvestor.

“Nobody on here is in any doubt about VAST 10 bagging very soon....“ Qué?

At whose option does it move?

Where did you get this from?

A discount to what, Bubblepoint?

Onetomany: The key point about forward contracts such as the ones Angus has taken on is the difference between the contracted sale price and the market price on the day the contract matures. If Angus has produced sufficient gas to meet the terms of the contract in full, there’s no problem. If they haven’t produced enough, they have to buy gas at the spot price to make up the difference. If the spot price is below the strike price of the forward contract, they will be quids in. If the spot price is higher than the strike price, they’ll have a problem. This was one of the factors that caused all the problems at the time just before the gas first started to come on stream - and continues to dog them.

Low-priced forward sales contracts are only an advantage over high-priced ones if you’ve got the gas to sell or, if you haven’t, the spot price is lower than the price in the forward sales contract. Angus doesn’t want a repeat of the situation a couple of years ago.

Ocelot: in the light of yesterday’s RNS, it should be pretty clear to everyone that Angus are having to do whatever their lenders tell them to do. This work on the new compressor must be costing a lot of money and it’s reducing their cash flow from the wells.

BP’s s for sale, Ocelot. Mr. ‘Erbert is familiar with that. Can you think of any other candidates? And can you think what this cash-short company might use for money?

Well, they can’t pay their lenders on the due date so it’s unlikely they’re in a positive cash flow position. If they need velocity strings, they’re going to have to find some more money from their lenders. That won’t come cheap. It’s a very difficult, very depleted gas field.

There’s every risk that production will not increase! It’s falling quite sharply every year, There will be new, though less onerous, hedges later this year as well as two lots of royalties. They can’t pay their lenders on the due dates. They need a ton more money if they’re going to do workovers or drill new wells. I can’t see any lender wanting to finance a new drill, given the track record here. Whether Trafigura can be persuaded to stump up for a work over, we’ll have to see. Aleph’s investors must be feeling anxious.

Bubblepoint: I agree with your conclusions. I see that the Ocebot is playing up the rise in the gas price. That’s all very well as long as they produce enough gas to fulfil their forward contracts. If, however, they decide to do workovers, or if the compressor problems continue, they may need to buy gas in the market to meet the sales contracts. (I know it doesn’t work quite that way, but that’s what it means in financial terms). As for the chap who’s happy to see more huge shares issues, does he not realise that these new shares will be sold in the market, limiting any upside in the share price - more likely, forcing it lower.

Bubblepoint: they were way behind their schedule, (and ridiculing the sceptics on these bb’s), when the gas price spiked at about $800. Then they were way behind their schedule when the hedges began. Actually, two or three years earlier, they turned down affordable finance on the basis that the bank offering the loan had a minimum lending criterion of £20mm. That was a disaster, resulting in more than a year’s delay and unaffordable terms for the loan they eventually took from Mercuria.

Angus is not a charity or a government-owned entity. They shouldn’t care about a dodgy investment unless they could make money for their shareholders. Saltfleetby was too difficult and too expensive for them. A look at the Wingas CPR should have warned them. The only people who’ve made money from this are their various contractors, Mr. Forrest, the Board members and Mercuria. It’s going to get worse for small shareholders, in my view.

Ocelot: do you mean that Trafigura has turned down an offer of shares in lieu? Why would they do that?

Bubblepoint: the principal problems with Poundland are complicated geology and a heavily depleted field. The problem with Anguish stems from their failure to produce gas in time either for the massive rise in the gas price or the starting date for the hedge contracts. It’s been damage limitation and misleadingly optimistic news releases since then. Given the problems with the field it’s hard to see how they could have done much better - other than if they’d had better luck. I can’t see a route to profitability here. Just more dilution until it’s fe-listed one way or another.

Ocebot: you’re plumbing new depths. “Preserve cash”? How does that fit with taking over other companies? Or with workovers? Shall we see what Wikipedia has to say about workovers?

“ Workovers rank among the most complex, difficult and expensive types of well work. They are performed only if the well completion is terminally unsuitable for the job at hand.”

Whatever happens here now is going to cost small shareholders a substantial part (at least) of the value of their remaining investment.