Member Info for onwardsnupwards

😂😂

Most of the 250 getting hammered being the ones most likely having heavy borrowing on the books. Change of government needed to at least inspire the markets that something/anything good is on the horizon.

Positive on Petrofac today is FPSO decommissioning going well, ahead of schedule and with Australian regulatory approvals. Huge for PFC to get right and prime themselves as a trusted and safe partner.

Thanks for this Fortissimo, an area I don’t understand. I can give you chapter and verse how O&G works operationally as I’ve lived it 30+ years and my father in law was Operations Director in Brunei for ten years and Middle East for the rest. Petrofac like Wood and the other players are critical to existing assets (being developed/sweated/decommissioned) but also the transition. Oil majors don’t have the skills or resources

Agree as well. Think your last paragraph is key also, trusted relationships in Australia are crucial with govns and unions, when you’re in your in. Fingers crossed that translate to the second and third phases.

Just need that inroad to ADNOC as well and then all doubts/concerns removed from Petrofac as a company that will give us a healthy return.

Guardian today. 2.8Bln across the whole of the Oil companies. Hurts the smaller players. Just Stop Oil and Brent price will have a bigger impact on decisions than windfall tax.

The government said its levy has raised about £2.8bn to date, and it does not expect the new changes to have an impact on the tax receipts based on current forecasts for energy market prices.

The levy attracted fierce criticism from the North Sea industry, which has claimed that it could put the brakes on new investment in oil and gas projects at a time when the government hopes to increase domestic fossil fuel production.

Industry critics also said the levy had a disproportionate impact on smaller, UK-based oil and gas producers, which pay most of their tax in the UK while the oil majors including BP and Shell pay only a small part of the global tax bill to the UK.

Personal opinion but for the majors the windfall tax won’t make one jot of difference to whether they invest or not. Shell has had rebates on its tax seven of the last eight years and they paid zero windfall last year and the accountants will be ensuring they pay as close to zero this year. The only uptick for PFC in the North Sea would be decommissions or partnerships on new energies. Oil price determines investment decisions and more so in the North Sea given its expensive to produce (wages and duty) and windfalls a drop in the ocean when they write taxes off against retirements or R&D/Exploration costs. New fields are viable at $70+ and anything less I honestly don’t think any of the majors will touch. Harder for the small players as they don’t have a behometh of assets to be able to hide/manipulate their exposure to windfall tax.

I don’t quite understand the linkage of tax/investment with a Petrofac takeover. Oil companies complain constantly whilst making vast amounts of money and dodging paying as much cash as they can. The majors will already have an investment plan for the next five years and that’ll be based on Brent price which given the Saudis are cutting production by 1mln brs will push price up strengthening existing pipelines. I created parts of Shell’s OECD BEPS tax reporting (pre windfall admittedly) and I’m fairly confident that the taxes today have little impact on decisions in the UK.

I honestly also don’t think Petrofac would be interested in being taken over assuming that they’re confident they can clear the debt and that recent wins continue and accelerate. I see no reason why an experienced CEO that left one decent company to join Petrofac would be looking to have new masters or leave in the next 3-6 months and especially since his day -1 they have been delivering new deals almost every two weeks. Literally one big ADNOC, a nod from Sweden after their eight week study and further work out of the Tennet stream and they are posting profit and promises of future dividends.

Not long till the dam bursts

I’m of the same opinion and holding until it breaks the shorters. Have a large shareholding myself and 37 years former Oil & Gas employee with Shell Plc and Basrah Gas Company of late. Father in law was a Director at PFC in the glory years of £15+ SP retiring prior to the SFC inquiry and subsequent fine.

My take on PFC;

- the oil & gas sector need PFC and the other services players, that’s a given

- investment decisions take time as do five/ten year plans but be assured the cash taken in the last 18 months by oil majors will be spent

- what will they spend it on? Hydrocarbons for sure, if you’ve invested in licenses or are already operating a license you want to make money from it. Old assets will be sweated for every dot of hydro’s and new will be complimented with carbon capture or equivalent technologies. PFC I believe well placed to be involved

- Balance Sheet. Is PFC’s the worst? Is closing out contracts whether with write offs or not a good thing? Answer is no it’s not the worst and tbh clearing out the old stuff will a) stabilise them for the growth now coming (+ dividends restarting) and b) the statement “cash is king” applies to decisions on the legacy. Get cash in, clear borrowing, reduce interest payments and in turn operating costs

- Green Future. The deals landed show PFC is a player and trusted and recent awards are the top of the iceberg. Additionally, there is a race to transition/transform so we are looking at heavy investments and awards NEAR TERM so whilst they may not win all, they’ll win quite a few in a bigger investment pond.

The shorters can play as long as they want, PFC is here to stay and when it does burst free then all the holders will be rewarded with a cash bonanza.

H1 results will be important as will another one or two bid wins but the ships been turned and it’s on the right path