Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
US rates unchanged last night and today UK the same. So much for being independent ? Every countries economy running at different speeds yet running similar tactics. UK must be hoping inflation comes down soon and rates at 5.25% are above the inflation rate. Been like this for decades. Blue above red on chart is the aim and they claim victory.
https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/inflation-interest-rates-1945-2011.png
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/interest-rate
It's a game . The Central Banks try to show they are doing something but inflation sorts itself out in time. They use interest rates as it's one of the few tools they have . Pretty obvious if they ramped rates up to double figures overnight it would crash the economy so they just nibble away instead.
This time there's been a crisis in 2020 and sure enough commodity prices went to the moon. Usually happens and inflation follows.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpXz-ORVQAAGf8D?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeOEQ5hWYAMfnLH?format=jpg&name=900x900
Can't stop it that easy . Look at 1960's rates were above inflation but it still went on another decade.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYDN7BzVUAAsgbc?format=jpg&name=medium
Look at those grey shaded areas which are recessions. So they jack the rates up then pause and sure enough in general they have to cut as the recession hits. So we can only wait and see.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFP3od-VUAEH44b?format=jpg&name=medium
Look at the BOE forecasts all wrong..
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYFx9CAWYAA2sLw?format=jpg&name=900x900
Remember next tax year CGTax allowance is reduced to £3,000 in an ordinary investment account . That's why you need ISA's and SIPP's . Why mess on with that and end up with a tax bill. Need to take profit up to allowance at least every year . Getting worse not better . At least you can plough 20 grand a year in an ISA and even more in a pension.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/guide-capital-gains-tax/
Depends where your pot is positioned ? Ordinary investment account with broker or in a tax wrapper such as ISA or pension SIPP etc. Ordinary and ISA is easy to withdraw cash overnight but the pension more complex.
As interest rates have climbed to 5% many are holding cash in short term money market funds such as RL . Current yield around 5% but varies with the daily market ( SONIA) .
https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/r/royal-london-short-term-money-market-class-y-accumulation
I have cash in building society accounts and separate from investments , always have, then you can't be underwater. Long term equities beats cash as history suggests.
At the end of the day why not take a bit out of your investment pot if you fancy a holiday or a new tele. That's what its for at the end of the day. Trouble is for many this money lark becomes an obsession and it ends up just a figure in a book going up hopefully. No good 80 yo with zillions jammed away.
Takes a bit of bottle to do that. Suppose Ernie could afford one anyway.
Maybe I'm in ?
https://investingreviews.co.uk/news/rolls-royce-share-price-climb-to-3/
Another to bookmark . Estimates for 2023-24 here..
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RR.L/analysis?p=RR.L
Plenty of RR tabs on here.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RR.L?p=RR.L
Might as well throw in some more free info
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/
There's another with estimates in blue shaded areas. Might need a simple log in at some point when you visit on a regular basis. Same with that Investors Chronicle link I posted earlier.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/finances/
Decent feeds..
https://uk.investing.com/equities/rolls-royce
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/LON:RR./Rolls-Royce-Holdings-PLC
good luck.
It only confuses forum readers when others post it about negative brokers . Again it's all opinions. DYOR etc.
Here's a simple link with forward earnings. You're nowhere without them . The past is the past so you need to see estimates about the near future. Luckily a few sites give it for free.
First off notice Recommendations at the top. Some analysts have swung to buy and outperform. Well good but most are still on hold . What's that ? Not exactly giving anything away.
Now look at the price forecasts . Wow !! 100p to 350p. Well somebody's got to be right.
Below that Orange blocks are history , now only a guide , and Green blocks estimates. So we look to estimates and see a nice dividend coming soon ? Revenue and earnings also going up . Good . At least you've got something to go off . Better than buying a share without understanding it surely.
https://markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=RR.:LSE
Right or wrong I'll be waiting for the lower indicators to hit oversold/extreme then buy. Oh no not the tea leaves !! . So we've had 210p sell and 200p buy and now 220p sell. Nothing works all of the time , so I'll get that one out of the way , but I never get emotional over this stuff. Learnt the hard way decades ago. Hang on but this one's been going to the moon ! Yes it has but it was 160p just two years ago and crashed yet again. What 70p ish ? Might not be happening now but RR was nowhere after the " burning " comments from the CEO. Then came the forward guidance and the rest is history. Well done but it's been a rollercoaster to say the least. So I'll just chip away as ever and do similar with my ISA and SIPP . Results are better than buy and hold which I had years ago. Everybody has a different way that's what makes a market.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=UK%3ARR&x=59&y=17&time=4&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=5&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=256&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
There's a release on here , Air Passenger Monthly Analysis dated AUG 8th . Right hand side under Economic Data.
https://www.iata.org/
https://www.iata.org/
Scroll down under the data and it's clear to see there's a fair few authors. It's all opinions at the end of the day. From the RR page the information is clear to understand as you select the various tabs above the price chart. That's not a bad effort to be fair. I can't see any forward earnings but that's no different to some other financial sites. Market screener and Investors Chronicle do for example.
https://www.fool.co.uk/tickers/lse-rr/
This authors article does give a forward review.
https://www.fool.co.uk/2023/09/01/up-175-in-a-year-rolls-royce-shares-have-gone-too-far-too-fast-but-ill-still-buy-them/
On the home page there's some tabs at the top showing the basics about investing. Many people don't have a clue so overall it has it's uses. Don't read the articles if it's not what you want to hear. There's a £7 one coming up in October I've heard.
https://www.fool.co.uk/
On the chart there's a few clues ( yes I know most aren't bothered about TA ) . Look to SEPT 2021 where the RR stood around 150 p after welcome news of air traffic and SMR's etc. It failed to break out of that zone until earlier this year 2023 with the RR upgrades in earnings and cash flow. Now it's breaking clear which is a good sign.
https://www.investingcube.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/image-180-1536x655.png
UK close 4.30pm and DOW stood at 34200. That's the marker for Tuesday so anything above that figure will go onto the FTSE at 8am. Normally a good guide.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
There's been estimates over £3 for a while now...
https://markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=RR.:LSE
If you take 210p as a base for AUG you'll need 30p a month to get to £7 FEB 2025 . So basically 240p SEPT , 270p OCT , 300p NOV , 330p DEC . That's the rest this year alone. Think a few will take profit if that happens.
Well it would be a step in the right direction but impact who knows . 17 analysts below in both links and they are forecasting dividends 2024 and 2025. So it won't be a surprise . Institutional holders atm are what 80%.
1p in 2024 and then 3p in 2025 below so good news.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/finances/
https://markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=RR.:LSE
If SMR's were that profitable then surely a fair bit would be priced into the SP. Analysts have reviews with companies on a regular basis you'd think they'd know something. There's no indication within the next two years profits will boom. RR has issued forward guidance and analysts have priced accordingly. They haven't been cautious either as they are now forecasting much lower debt for 2025 and earnings upped from 9p to 13p (EPS) . That's a huge jump. Not that I know but the SMR story will take decades to develop . This is engineering not down the pub where the owner buys the beer at £2 a pint and sells it today at £4 . Still doesn't make £2 clear profit either.!!
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/finances/
https://markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=RR.:LSE
RR is pretty solid only down pennies a share. The markets worldwide are falling as bond yields are rising worldwide. They're now higher than last autumn when LTr was PM for a few days . Must be indicating this inflation story isn't over yet. Why would you want shares when you can get 5% safely in the bank ? .Markets will get over it mind.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-bond-yield
US running the show as ever and since August going down so rest follow. Notice August was same time bond yields were rising. All connected. It's a game this investing lark and LTH just have to ride the waves. Simple.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX
Just as other forecasts sales, earnings , profits and cash etc are predicted higher. Have a look at Earnings,Revenue and Growth Forecast chart . It's not that earnings are falling it's the pace of the expected recovery. Look at the steepness of the curve in early 2023 and compare to future. It's slower as this years recovery was rapid. EG. 20% growth per year v 10% future per year doesn't mean it's not growing. All opinions anyway until RR say different.
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/capital-goods/lse-rr./rolls-royce-holdings-shares/future
The GDP figures were above analysts expectations but market sentiment was poor today. All European markets were down similar to UK. The Dow Jones was reading 35600 yesterday and fell away to 35100 earlier today. Other markets usually play catch up so FTSE closed down 1.2%. That's the way it goes all about the US in general.
RR itself has had a tremendous run and stood at just 146p on July 17th so only up a slack 40/50%. Can't be blaming market manipulation for that surely. Analysts have upgraded along with the company forward guidance and all are on board with RR now. What's not to like. They've pencilled in 13p EPS for 2025 which was 9p recently again a massive margin.
Now then CGTax etc and the UK. It's been possible to shelter 200K in a ISA over the last decade. So no tax. If you're very lucky it's been possible to shelter 40K a year in a pension plan for the last decade. Tax wrappers are the game so don't let the government mess with your savings in fact they're handing you a bonus.
UK markets aren't held back in any way it's the make up which is different from say the US. The US has tech stocks which aren't in the FSTE so you're not comparing like with like. No Amazon and Microsoft etc. As a result the US is valued higher as the UK has some slow tankers in it such as banks,oils, telecoms. Look here in year 2000 all those non growth stocks were trading way higher during the dotcom boom. Now they are still unwinding years later. BT , LLOY, VOD etc etc
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-EytF_YJ1G5w/Uzvw9wz0vuI/AAAAAAAAAO8/GPFWdFtCuvQ/s1600/FTSE+100+trailing+PE+chart.JPG
Don't forget the dividends either in the FTSE either big difference when they are added in. Nobody keeping anything down it's all about reading the data. Good luck everyone.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuQplORWYAAGRtk?format=jpg&name=small