Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Well I did post earlier in the thread it was oversold with the tea leaves. Nice solid candle today even with that news article. So we see ..
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=UK%3ARR&x=63&y=12&time=6&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=9&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=256&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
OK I've set it to Weekly , Close instead of candlesticks. My preferred lower indicators are still oversold in the weekly timeframe. I'll stick with a bounce from here unless world conditions struggle.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=UK%3ARR&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=9&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=256&lf3=1&type=64&style=320&size=2&x=69&y=9&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
TLT highlighted in a previous post . Huge volumes so maybe a reversal here. Good for markets. One of us will be right.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F84OW8cXUAAzeRf?format=png&name=900x900
Not exactly an obvious H and S pattern but I can see it (just). US bond yields have been rising all month but the FED haven't indicated anymore rate rises so I'll go along with that. World tensions must have played their part this week so that will have caused uncertainty. Inflation is easing ( not certain ) so that's a positive. Markets have absorbed all rate rises in the last year and US markets are up 20% (good) . The economy must be strong enough to cope with these rises ( good ) . When they are cutting rates is the time to get concerned as that'll mean a weak economy ( not there yet ).
The tea leaves suggest RR is heading to oversold so a bounce will be due. At the end of the day it's up from 150p to 230p or 50% . Given up less than 15% of that move so things aren't that bad.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=UK%3ARR&x=63&y=12&time=6&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=9&uf=0&lf=32&lf2=256&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
Right or wrong they're having a clear out. Between 2000-2014 there's been a few . 5,000 in 2001, 2008 around 4,000 , 2014 another 2,600 . Then 2018 3,000 in UK. 9,000 in 2020. and now another 2,500. Google it.
I left in 2001 and I know a few guys who returned contracting. Both said it was very relaxed when they went back and totally different. There's no way you can hire say 20 people and get experts in any field . Maybe 5 very good, 5 good and 10 chancers. You'll never sort out any workforce if it were that easy why is there talk like " work shy " . This should have been eliminated decades ago with all these analysts and consultancies etc if they were that good. Another thing where's all the future recruits coming from. All off to Uni these days . Can't see many wanting factory work and 12 hour shifts. That's where the respectable money comes from not just 9-5 daily. Never mind..
Analysts think 2024 onwards. See the blue shaded areas. 1p first then 3p 2025.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/finances/
These changes were hinted at months ago..
https://www.theaviatorme.com/news/rolls-royce-job-cuts
The 2020 cuts of 4,600 cost £400m to implement.
https://www.makeuk.org/news-and-events/news/rolls-royce-to-cut-4600-jobs-over-the-next-two-years-as-part-of-a-major-reorganisation
Today...
https://www.ft.com/content/5d20eb51-d23b-4f72-8a45-48aa88955f4e
When I worked there they were always cutting jobs that's how I left. It's never ending and it's the same old terms they use " efficiency , streamline " etc. No doubt many will retire early and another raid needed on the pension fund before 66 yo. No the wonder final salary pension funds are being phased out and replaced with money DC pension pots. That's the way it goes..
Not the answer you're looking for waccybaccy but as I've said in earlier post how does anybody know what SMR's are worth ? Obvious if there's a profit to show then the shares will rise, well you'd think so. What's the margin going to be on a sale 5-10% guessing ? Why aren't investors and analysts pricing in a least something for the potential benefits. ? I don't know the answer but all I follow is what markets think. Forward P/E for 2025 is 16 which is greater the than the FTSE itself but maybe nearer it's sector components ? Fair value then and far from expensive . If it were wrong the CEO would say otherwise as he said earlier this year.
A bit of history below relating to RR peak in 2013. The order book is at £73bn , huge from Trent etc, and over 4 times company sales . So today as orders flow in it's needed to maintain steady and increasing turnover of £15bn +. Profit is £1,8bn again a decent figure . EPS 73p, net cash of £2bn and free cash flow. Throw in 22p dividend and everything is flowing well but it's never plain sailing all the time with companies.
https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press-releases/2015/pr-130215-2014-full-year-results.aspx
AS there's 4 times as many shares in circulation now those 22p dividends and EPS of 73p will have been diluted . Ballpark in a good year could produce 6p dividend ( 3% at todays 213p ) and earnings say 16p which would lift the share price to 300p ( guessing) going off todays forecasts. All guesswork but no different to anybody else. SMR's well who knows ?
Unfortunately then came this as I said it's never plain sailing.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/13/rolls-royce-defence-cuts-2014-revenues-profits
Certainly not in a downward trend well it might be if you're trading days or weeks. Since the recent high the chart pattern looks pretty normal to me and something investors should recognise . You don't get surges unless there's big news and usually shares just drift with the general market and it's own company prospects.
https://tradingeconomics.com/rr:ln
Here's two TSCO and ULVR . Plenty volatility which is normal within a year. Nimble investors can make money on most stable FTSE companies.
https://tradingeconomics.com/tsco:ln
https://tradingeconomics.com/ulvr:ln
SMR's what's priced in and what's not. ? Think the analysts and investors are playing this as it goes along. If it were similar to a US tech stock (even Tesla) then forward P/E ratios would go to the moon. Wow !! prices like P/E100 . The likes of Amazon were there just a few years ago.
RR is on a forward P/E of 16 for 2025 which is very reasonable . Won't be much different to other shares in a similar sector. See blue shaded areas in link below.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/finances/
Missed the link off..
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/
3rd NOV...results....reports
https://www.rolls-royce.com/investors.aspx
Plenty of company details here. Worth a bookmark.
What's baked into the RR share price is hard to say but I remember there was clearly a reaction to some press releases in late 2020 and late 2021 . There was a rapid surge to the 150p region. SMR press releases have be going over 5 years now.
https://www.rolls-royce-smr.com/press-room
This is a 5 year candlestick chart which clearly shows the surges in price. One is definitely to do with funding and regulations. Can only wait and see.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=UK%3ARR&x=0&y=0&time=12&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
Well done SW for highlighting this as it's been a concern for a while. Not so much the older generation who have been dealing for decades but younger investors, say under 50 yo , who trade online on many of the new platforms.
No disrespect to investors but many don't know basic rules and allowances for many reasons. It's often posted on this part of the forum. I'm not 100% at times who is ?
There's some very informative posters on many forums and here's a thread from June. Again another youtube video at the end . Like every article , newspaper, blog, video , there's always useful information just some are better than others. Surely HMRC knew all about this ? After all there's regulations with everything.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6455811/fractional-shares-isa-and-hmrc
Fair enough it's not £5 but you can't deny the rights issue was a life saver for many investors. Some RI aren't as generous what if the discount had only been 20% for example. I'll repeat for the last time what if you haven't got the extra cash to participate. I remember a few quitting on here around 2020. Again averaging down isn't always a wise move just have a look at some major UK companies since year 2000 dotcom boom.
I'll give you a real example in my working time at RR . The first Share save scheme (SAYE) was issued in 1987 at 107p just after the 1987 crash. Remember floatation price was 170p. As a single lad I was lucky to afford the maximum so I did just that. The rest of the married lads couldn't afford to do so for obvious reasons. 16 years later in 2003 the shares stood at 50p . Now what would you think after all that time. ? Could have doubled your money leaving it in the bank without doubt. Posters on here seem to forget or don't understand this is a complex company to invest in. The road has been very rocky since so it's not true to say it's a great investment . The product itself is a shining example of UK craftmanship. Set the chart to All to see the early years. Stare at the latest price and imagine a very unattractive rights issue. Good luck .
https://tradingeconomics.com/rr:ln
FTSE 100 was launched around same time as RR floatation. FTSE was based at 1,000 and now stands at 7,600 . RR was launched at 170p ( I worked there ) so would be around 1300p on an equal performance. Dividends reinvested the FTSE total return is nearly 30,000 . If the dividends were added to RR it wouldn't be anywhere near. FTSE dividend has averaged 3-5% for years and way above any RR dividend. Remember you didn't have to average down or have a rights issue to achieve the FTSE return. The majority of people don't have extra cash to throw at shares if things aren't going well. Investors who had bought pre rights issue at £5-£12 pounds will be well under. Those are the long term holders.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuQplORWYAAGRtk?format=jpg&name=small
The world index has outperformed the FTSE over a similar time period. What's the point in buying a single stock if you underperform the market itself. RR has seriously underperformed since 2010 -2020. A simple and easy way to buy shares these days is to buy the index itself and go down the pub. I'll keep trading as that's my way using TA . I'm doing ok so that'll do me. Good luck all.
That is what I'm saying and I'm not arguing . I see you've been buying and selling. No different to anybody else on here. I also buy and sell and wouldn't have it any other way. Markets can wipe you out. I've had decades at this and it ain't easy.
I'm not wrong . When you purchase a share long term you make a one off investment and take your chance . If the share is falling then that's called catching a falling knife in some cases. Averaging down is a gamble , might or might not pay off. What if there's no rights issue, yes you're lucky , but that happens . Here's a chart and set it to ALL . It's a shocker if you'd been stuck with that.
https://tradingeconomics.com/rr:ln
Analysts see dividends in 2024 and 2025..
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROLLS-ROYCE-HOLDINGS-PLC-4004084/finances/
To be fair here's a long term chart adjusted for the rights issue so nearly 400p is the all time high and not £12. Basically nearly all the LTH's are still underwater since 2010. The boys and girls who spotted the opportunity at £1 and less , well done.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=UK%3ARR&time=20&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F5%2F2021&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=64&style=320&size=2&x=51&y=16&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
Maybe RR has paid a few dividends in the meantime but if you'd invested in the FTSE over a similar long term period you'd be quids in.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuQplORWYAAGRtk?format=jpg&name=small
World Index and the FTSE over a similar period leave RR standing. Stick in recent holders as this LTH stuff isn't always the answer in single companies . A lesson to learn.
https://i.imgur.com/cILTsWQ.png
Got to put things into perspective here. 1987 crash was a boom year it was up 50% ,yes 50% and simply gave all the gains back. See below started 1800 ended Sept at 2700 then down to 1700.
https://www.nextbigtrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/indu.png
sums it up..
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7IYTyLbAAAm42Q?format=jpg&name=900x900
Here's the recent close on the SP500 . All the TA lower indicators are oversold in the daily timeframe. Note the red 200 day moving average is sitting just below the price itself. Nothing like 1987.
http://charts.equityclock.com/pictures/October62023QWE/sc.png
1929 crash the most talked about in history is similar . Just 4 years before in 1925 the DOW was at 100 and then 400 . No the wonder it happened. Imagine the FTSE at 20,000 next year !!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ehas5bQVgAAcUGA?format=png&name=small
Down a touch as of last night but there'll be an update on the link tonight.
https://twitter.com/IGSquawk
There's always something going on in the background..