Member Info for onsolidground

This company has had two recent sets of Bid events in just over a year.

The first one in 2022 had 3 sets of parties and the lowest "public domain" offer was for 170p

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/20/thg-shares-soar-amid-prospect-of-bidding-war-for-online-retailer-nick-candy

Then most recently the Apollo bid / improved bid proposal. No figure in public yet but from Matt Moulding's Linkedin post just after he told us that Apollo, for THG Ingenuity ALONE had valued it at "Significantly" higher than the share price / market cap for the whole group prior to their interest (Was circa 65p prior).

" Their latest view on Ingenuity had it as being significantly more valuable than the whole of THG the day before the bid leaked!"

https://im.linkedin.com/posts/matthew-moulding_nothanks-pe-onwards-activity-7062681230554591233-gaz_

THG Nutrition we all know from last reporting is a £675M Revenue business, and on par with other recent conservative similar industry deals 3 x Revenue is a similar valuation perspective. So circa £2 Billion for THG Nutrition on top.

Then there is THG Beauty a £1235 Million revenue business ... so use your own maths to value it and add further. With this in mind Apollo clearly bid more than 170p.

So why on earth is this share price sat so low and having literally just ventured through 70p for the first time since the door was closed on the Apollo bid? .Zstarz, I completely agree with your comments on the London Market cesspit and comments highlighted also by MM in his "Pond Scum" post as the main reasons.

If those in the cesspit aren't willing to play ball with fairer value then take what you have and explain it to other large pocketed investors elsewhere. That's what he has just done. Let other investorsconduct their own due diligence and either Invest or do a deal to take it Private.

After Matt Mouldings impromptu visit to Dubai last week, and its timing with just 3 months to go to his Golden Share veto expires then the starting gun has been well and truly fired for some sort of deal or deals. (Take private, partnership buy in or new blood investors ...)

What form that deal may be I actually have no preference so long as it significantly enhances the value of my shareholding to far nearer to the Sum of Parts valuations.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/matthew-moulding_middleeast-dubai-ambition-activity-7075065046711574528-oHls

It would be nice if we kept this as our own little secret.

Matt knows he has to get the share price up and thats why he travelled to Dubai. Its now less than 3 months until the Golden share elapses and there are 2 Active Investors onboard (and probably plenty more who will push for any next approach to be rightfully put to All shareholders. The two previous rounds of Bids well higher than this share price and each has highlighted Sum of Parts valuations skywards of here. In the meantine its hard to see anything other than share price enhancing news being delivered.

Its just the way I see it and hence why I am completely chilled.

Its a very noticeable strong rise today.

Has there been another approach? Any leaks anywhere?

Buyer in the background today which the MM's have been trying to satisfy.

Hopefully its Taylor Swifts Dubai based Financial Advisor

Sheik Itoff.

Joking aside, some serious wealth out there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfWlot6h_JM

Just roughly 35% upwards still to go to get back to an 808p TERP.

Gad it got through 600p. Needs to stay above it though and then it can make its next move.

Up she goes

Would like to think it will head back to £4.00 in the interim.

Forgot to add that it's a smart move by Matt Moulding for in effect he is bypassing the City to try and bring in new enthusiasm for THG, and he's telling them so. Hence why I said GL anyone who wished to be short here from now on in.

Icing might appear on the cake if post AGM The BoD use the authority of the Buyback resolution to start purchasing their own shares.

AS1,

Somebodies nibbling today even if it's being feed through slowly by the MM's. Forst hours volume is up and there are some reasonable sized trades rather than the single digit or couple of hundred quid variety.

M own thoughts are this. Post closing the Apollo door some shareholders were discontented that MM didn't extend the talks to maximise an have formalised an bid. The Active Investors have gone quiet and created the impression that the are no longer onside. No share buy back announcement. Also no real Long term investor buying from 59p to say 68p has been really low indicating the are not presently of a mind to invest more. Negative narrative within the City and "pond scum" type conspiracy theories may in part be to blame.

Golden Share expires in 3 months. Need to get the share price up to appease.

So how do you do it? Logically you go outside the City of London and court new investors from outside, amongst the oil rich Movers and Sheikers of this world. US probably next. You go armed with 2 rejected bids at imo 170p and above and Sum of Parts valuations much higher than here. It's an easy investor sell

Thoughts on the share price come September 16th?

On the Golden Share expiry

Got to get that share price up Matt and expecting a lot of fireworks and upward momentum between now and the 16th September.

The trip to Dubai signifying only the start imho.

It'll be interesting to see if the likes of Betaville or indeed any of the "negative narrative" press actually pick up on the latest Linkedin comments, or in the recently announced new partnership announcements with PwC and Mindsite or in fact the MyProtein Ice-creams are being released @Iceland on the 27th June. That's what you would expect from balanced and objective journalism. It wouldn't take too much to actually publish something positive from the wealth of information that has been provided over the last few months.

Perhaps following in the footsteps of The Scotsman, north of the border.

https://www.scotsman.com/read-this/myprotein-iceland-launch-high-protein-ice-cream-range-for-fitness-fans-this-summer-full-list-of-flavours-4182958

Being fair to Matt Moulding he has made some really good posts in the last few months. The Pond Scum post was and still is epic, The Myprotein post highly informative, The Espa from manufacturing to luxury Spa's similarly informative and his post Apollo bid post telling everyone that Apollo had valued THG Ingenuity ALONE at higher than the pre bid share price of 65p, again being another noteworthy one.

But I have to say that todays linkedin post and its timing about meeting Investors in Dubai is right up there with the better ones.

Dubai is one of the richest playgrounds in the world and tomorrow marks the 16th June and there will be only 3 months remaining until his Golden Share veto expires. He knows he needs to get the THG share price up and quickly for if he doesn't I think it is an odds on certainty that the next approach will have to put to shareholders. last few weeks volume are telling him that he can't rely on existing shareholders for that (otherwise why is it only 68p)

Perfect storm is now brewing.

Matt Mouldings Golden share veto is fast ticking down to expiry.

Strong potential for UAE Investors to hop onboard. 68p is presently a joke share price against previous bids of 170p and higher. Limited downside risk also for them if THG Ingenuity was valued alone by Apollo at greater than circa 65p

Are we talking making an Investment or a Middle east backed MBO or take private deal.

Strong potential for another trip on an Airbus 380 Dreamliner to the US on another Investor focussed trip and potential for Investors there to also be canvassed and hop onboard. Read Matt Moulding's post.

2 well connected Active Investors also still loitering in the background in Kelso with Jonathan Goold and in Sparta Capital Management with Frank Tuil, both of whom have the contacts and knowhow to bring another Private Equity Bidder to the table, or a Partnership approach for say Nutrition e.g Glanbia or any of the other FMCG producers, or to stir things up.

I certainly wouldn't be short here now in any capacity. Matt Moulding spanked Marshall Wace and others here only recently on the eve of the last results by outing the Apollo bid (45% Ouch!! linkedin post) Slightest rise in the volume levels here and all will quickly twig what's happening. This share price is simply far too low comparatively speaking and I wish anyone serious enough to try and short this some serious good luck, for I think they will need it.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/matthew-moulding_middleeast-dubai-ambition-activity-7075065046711574528-oHls

With the volumes as low as they are it shouldn't be too hard to notice somebody onboarding en masse.

OhhAhh this really wouldn't be hard sell for MM as he only needs to sit down with investors and say

Look... we have just turned down a private Equity approach which was priced at .....

Last year we had several bids, the lowest of which was 170p

They all then do their own due diligence and confirm the above.

Present share price 66p.

Present, mainly UK investors in the UK are not leaping in with both feet at 66p so you go outside - Dubai and the US are certainly 2 good places to start.

In lieu of the Apollo bid rejection and with UK Institutional Investors largely sticky and not investing much more presently it does make you wonder if he does have the full support of the 65%.

The Active Investors got all they needed off the Rule 8 RNS's during the Apollo Bid to know who holds what stock and the contacts for who to canvas.

Share price up or the next Capital Event will have a test of Investor appetite added in.

That's more like the type of post that we like to see. Business focused. Could have gone to the THG Dubai Fulfilment Centre but doesn't seem to have mentioned it. (Maybe one for a later blog)

Full post is laced with being a Roadshow and meeting wealthy investors, in a region blessed with investors and sovereign wealth funds with extremely deep pockets. Also nailed on that the US is also on the cards.

His words..

"This isn’t normal work life for me or anyone at THG, it’s just not that glamorous. I barely ever travel with work. I prefer to use daily Teams calls, avoiding lost hours on planes and in hotel rooms. Work travel has never appealed to me."

Was told by one investor recently to get things in order and with question marks over the allegiance of the 35% and some of the 65% no doubt, 2 Active Investors onboard and rattling the cages of impatience and 3 months and counting - why did he make the trip?

My thoughts all along have been that he needs to get the share price up pronto before the Golden expires.

Happy to wait for the next upward movement, wheoever invests large, or the next Capital Event.

Nice to see it through the 300p.

Been some well publicised Ransomware demands and breaches which is always free publicity for the industry and prompts enquiry.

Caught that update also and its a good set of numbers.

Good time to be emerging from suspension.

Can't be too far off...

Some companies release AGM statements prior to AGM's to set a nice mood for the meeting. Would be nice here as all can see how Nutrition is expanding and also Warpaint's numbers and Asos in profit for the quarter add to the optimism. I personally doubt all will get a statement, though in business anything can and normally does happen. In any case the right questions asked should elicit an update of sorts.

You really would have thought that by now the market makers would have gotten it by now. The share price is too low and the volume (on which they depend) is so pitifully low also because of a number of factors well publicised and known to all:

~ Apollo valued THG Ingenuity Alone at in excess of 65p

~ On top of that THG Nutrition on a highly conservative 3 x Revenue multiple (off £675 Million revenue) says add 2 Billion

~ THG Beauty ( a £1235 Million revenue business). Add even more on top.

~ Previous Bids 170p and higher and Apollos bid proposal imo was higher given the THG Ingenuity value.

~ They've tried dropping the price twice in recent weeks. Nobody selling in any volume, Mainly buyers.

~ As of tomorrow the Golden share loses another month, so 3 months and fast counting down to September 16th. Next Capital event just prior or to coincide with this endingand you would expect the Active Investors to get it put a vote BY ALL.

So here we bimble until finally either finally the penny drops and things start to resemble truer value or one or more of the Market makers or ancilliary services goes under.

There is already a trend emerging towards companies listing elsewhere and I see that as of yesterday WE-Soda who had just announced they were going to UK list have abandoned their UK listing have changed their mind. I also read that new listings are down somewhere between 75% and 80%.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12195063/WE-Soda-abandons-London-IPO-plans-citing-extreme-investor-caution-fresh-blow-City.html?ico=mol_desktop_moneymarkets-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Fmarkets%2Findex.html

Thought we might nudge through 600p today.

No worries though, there's always tomorrow and I don't have to report quarterly to investors or financial backers.

Tragic and sad news in Nottingham yesterday and heartfelt sympathies to the families of those who have lost loved ones. Taken too soon.

Would appear that Matt in his travels has liked a post and was doing a bit of networking yesterday with Robert Willock, Director MENA (Middle East and North Africa) & Regional General Manager, The Economist Intelligence Corporate Network. Interesting role when you delve into it and clearly a well connected individual who happens to have been one of MM's fellow alumni whilst at University in Nottingham. dyor

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/robwillock_nottingham-activity-7074804305072934912-9Qdb?trk=public_profile_like_view