Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Thanks JerseyCrew, for bring your breadth of perspective to this board, and as you say everyone with a keyboard and no skin in the game suddenly has an opinion they think we want to hear.
Reading through your detailed response though, it suddenly struck me how concerned OCIM must have been that their largest ever deal would not have sufficient cover if there was a problem, and that retreat from the table was almost a forgone conclusion when a hold on the ML was no longer on the table as security. But as they have expended so much time and effort in their due diligence process, it would not surprise me if they stepped back in for a smaller piece of the action if they could find themselves back in their comfort zone, because they do want physical gold.
Obviously now everyone in this space will be trying to squeeze Caracal a little harder as a result of our need to move forward on finance, but hopefully with the Market looking to secure guaranteed deliveries of physical gold, without relying on the traditional markets in these uncertain times, there will still be sufficient competing offers to keep the gouging to a minimum.
As I say thanks once again JerseyCrew for a thought provoking post.
ATB & GLA
Thanks M0neyMan, for injecting a brief moment of sanity into the debate, instead of more wild speculation or emotion based recrimination. Not that I'm avoiding feeling a little emotion and recrimination myself, but what point does it really serve? When the dust settles the investment here is still an actively producing gold mine with at least a 10 year LOM, based upon a JORC resource that is now mostly measure or indicated, surrounded by a very large exploration licence with numerous prospects, one of which may dwarf Kilimapesa hill itself; Added to this we have a production plant that already has been extensively refurbished and and a 22.5Kt HL plant added to bring the estimated Plant value to £20 - £30M; and if that wasn't enough we have a second JORC proven resource in Tanzania that is between 2 - 3 years of being a 50,000ozs/a producing open cast mine in it's own right. So decide yourself if you would consider buying shares that are literally, in the two for a penny bracket at the moment, to own a piece of it?
IMO there are many non-dilutive paths to release the significant value here, and a pre-pay gold purchase loan is just one, that has the attraction of being relatively quick and easy to arrange and pays a price that varies with the POG. I'm sure the OCIM deal looked very attractive to both parties, right up until the final stage when Caracal tried to execute a charge over the Kilimapesa mining license in favour of OCIM, and the Kenyan Government said no - a factor that neither OCIM, nor the Caracal team had uncovered during the due diligence process. So egg on the faces of both teams, but to be fair, ask yourself how many gold mines there are in Kenya with MLs granted under the old Laws? So whilst you can sell the company that owns the license , you apparently cannot temporarily assign ownership subject to a debt repayment agreement, as presumably the Kenyan Government have strict rules about agreeing to the transfer of these licenses without transferring the ownership of the company owning it. So no cold feet on either side, or change of hearts, or even unexpected contract clauses.
So I'm personally sure there is a finance deal out there which suits our non-dilutive requirements, and will be structured around our ability to produce gold, but the type of deal with OCIM giving a two year window of financial certainty in a single tranche is probably off the table, whilst a staged release of funds type of deal is now more likely. And of course all this will be possible because the fundamentals that M0neyMan recognised are and will remain unchanged.
So yes M0neyMan I am emotional, but mostly because for what it cost me to double my GCAT holding before Christmas, I could have nearly tripled it today. Lol
ATB DYOR and GLA
Personally I thought Robbie put in an excellent performance, He confirmed $118M instead of 93M, as the later was a typo and also didn't shy away from the timeline for 2Kozs/m gold stretching to the Eof H1 2023.
BUT, the important part of the slippage message is that Plants 1, 2 and 3 will continue to run and produce, although I'm guessing that Plant 2 will run at a lower capacity due to insufficient crushing capacity - but that is just my guess as I really don't know how much ore can be crushed by the existing capacity. So the upside is that we could still be looking at 1Kozs+/m of gold from the Eof Q4 2022 depending on the effect of insufficient Elution capacity.
So for me it's definitely a big slice of Christmas cake now, but the rest is being left in the tin until later in the year - which perversely could be good news for people like me, who were hoping to have another chance at stuffing the S&S ISA with a few more Caracal at bargain prices before the SP really balloons.
ATB, GLA & A Very Merry Christmas to everyone (especially splatted, get well soon mate).
Whilst I completely understand where you are coming from Legalwolf, and your misgivings about a 'sudden' three month slippage in the timetable. My personal guess is that this isn't due to poor planning or unforeseen build or planning delays, but instead has been triggered by cashflow delays. Specifically ordering some big ticket items, and please correct me if I am wrong, but we haven't seen two major items of hardware in tweeted photos, that both probably require cash with order and also training or installation. I am of course referring to the New Rock crusher and the fleet of trackless mining vehicles. Clearly without the mining equipment you cannot increase underground ore production and no new ore crusher means that HL plant 4 is just empty pads.
As I say just my guess as to why the schedule has slipped a whole quarter, rather than just crept a few weeks, because you won't get a delivery date until our CFO gets those new funds and starts signing cheques.
ATB & GLA
Hi RPdard,
Yes it seems an age since we had some really interesting and worthwhile news to talk about, even though we mostly knew what to expect and when, and then like buses the whole fleet comes along in a line. Lol.
Hopefully though this relatively brief period of waiting is now nearly over, with only another few months to wait before we are awash in good news. I must admit though I wish I was still waiting somewhere warm, but instead I'm back in the UK, hopefully finalising the sale of my house as I have moved to plan B whilst waiting for Caracal to make us all rich.
So yes, hopefully all of us will have a very good Christmas? Although I don't know about you, but I've already spent most of my Christmas cash on Caracal shares, so if Santa doesn't visit this year I'm pretty much stuck with a cold climate. Lol
ATB & GLA
Whatever you think about the news flow from Caracal, you do have to remember one thing that for a Junior Gold Miner, Caracal is moving at a breakneck pace, but there are only so many skilled pairs of hands at Management and Board level to do the work, and at times like this it really shows.
So even though it would be great if they can actually get the Q3 report out of the door between now and the New Year, I'm actually not that bothered, as we know it's going to be a mixed bag snapshot of a gold producing company in a state of flux, with actual gold production sporadic - so no surprises for us LTHs of Caracal, but another ripple on the pond for the newly arrived PIs.
The daft thing is that if the Q4 report could come out soon after, Caracal would look like a different company, as the Q3 report would already be superseded by another 3 months work. Added to that, as we know the fact that for a Junior miner, Caracal is effectively three companies in one as a Producer/Explorer/Developer, so there are so many News streams in play, so whilst Vim Rutha is really great, it is currently over shadowing IMO, the true main event - the push for 2kozs gold/m.
So lets have some news by all means, but if the SP drops whilst we are waiting for it, my only true personal complaint is not having the funds to be a able to capitalise on it straight away.
ATB, GLA and Merry Christmas
Guys,
At the risk of annoying some posters, do we really care about the SP at the moment? Sure if you have to sell then you want the best value possible, but most of us here are LTHs and we've been holding our noses on the SP for Months and months, but finally we have heard the first seriously positive news securing the medium term finacing, that we have been waiting for. So if Goldplatt share dumping takes the wind out of the SP sails now, then IMO, better now than them sitting on shares until Q1 23 finally brings us to 2K ozs/month, and then 60 million shares get sold.
Lets face it Goldplatt had years to achieve what GCAT are pushing through in one year, but they didn't want to raise the cash necessary, because basically they are not a gold mining company as such. Also IMO, there is a clear split of emphasis on the Goldplatt BoD, with the CEO in favour of developing Kilimapesa, whist the majority just wanted rid of it, and to concentrate on their core business, reclaiming other people's leftovers. So as GCAT becomes more successful it actually becomes a valuable, but sold asset on the balance sheet, and a potential embarassment, as GCAT's success grows.
Personally now, I'm hoping that all the remaining shareholders are mostly strapped in for the ride, as it's glaring obvious to anyone who does even minimal research, that you are buying a producing gold mine, with funding agreed for it's expansion program, its exploration plans in two countries, and also funding to carry another major mining project to at least the mining license application stage.
So like just about every other LTH has said, What's not to like about GCAT? So if the SP only grows slowly between now and the Eof Q1 2023, I personally will celebrate every bargin basement share purchasing opportunity I can find.
GLA & ATB
@Bebeto,
Assuming that all of the Q3 2022 targets for Pad 3 of Plant 3 were met, then the projected steady state gold/month production rate for Plant 3 is 195.25ozs - Based upon on the Sept 2022 corporate presentation projected production figures, which I believe were unchanged in the Oct 2022 CP (but I cannot easily check as I'm bouncing around in the back of a mate's car, as he transists the main Bangkok Toll road, which is hair raising at the best of times), I'm also assuming the projections were conservative, and therefore easily attainable. Hopefully this is what you actually meant?
ATB & GLA
@Bebeto,
High Grade ore and low AISC gets my vote, or barring that, easy to extract low grade ore to pile on those HL Pads. I do agree though that even if Kilimapesa mine by itself, actually reaches 50,000ozs/a, the route to 100,000ozs/a will need us to find one or two areas to focus a second or third mining license upon, and hopefully further leverage our existing processing facilities.
ATB & GLA
@Bebeto,
I'm 100% in favour of an expansion to mining at Kilimapesa, but 53 sq km sounds a huge chunk of land to put into an active state for mining all in one go, and potentially very expensive when you look at the existing mining license only covering an area of 0.88 sq km.
It's not that I don't want Caracal to expand rapidly, but how many ounces of gold would need to be extracted per year to make such a massive expansion viable? Would we be looking at extracting fifty times as much gold as from the current mine, and would the required size of workforce actually be available locally?
Don't get me wrong, as I truly would love to see Caracal producing multiples of the 24,000oz/a target, who wouldn't, but my tiny brain struggles to grasp the economics and practicalities of such a rapid, and sizeable scaling up of mining operations.
ATB & GLA
@RPdard,
Occasionally I talk sense RPdard, I just hope that Caracal are thinking optimistically in this way. We could certainly use some 'under promise, and over deliver', type of news.
ATB
@RPdard,
On page 13 of the September corporate presentation, in the note box labelled, PROCESSING, point 4 in the list
' Plant 4 - Pad 1-4 to be constructed and commissioned during Q4 2022'.
Hopefully this helps, as all the commentary notes have disappeared in the October version.
ATB
@Bebeto and @RPdard,
For what it is worth, here is my take on the HL plants and how they contribute to the 24,000ozs/a target, based upon the various bits of evidence provided so far, and my interpretation of them.
1. We now know that Plant 3 is comprised of 3 x 7.5Kt HL Pads, and in terms of actual ore processed on them together it equates roughly to 20Kt.
2. Plant 3 was completed during Q3 2022, so now is capable of full production.
3. Plant 4 is currently being constructed during Q4 2022, and it seems reasonable to assume that as each HL Pad is built, it will also be commissioned once construction is complete - as this is how Plant 3 was brought online. We also know from the latest information given in the September 2022 corporate presentation, that only 4 Pads are being constructed/commissioned in Q4 2022. So, it seems a reasonable assumption that only 4 HL Pads in Plant 4 are actually required to meet the 24,000ozs/a target, as we were told that from Q1 2023, the target would be achieved.
5. When the diagram showing the plans of both Plants 3 & 4 was released, it seems to show that the 3 Pads in Plant 3 are equal in capacity to a single Pad in Plant 4. which h
was later confirmed by Robbie, stating that each Plant 4 HL Pad is approximately 20Kt in capacity.
Interestingly the September corporate presentation slide showing the Kilimapesa Production Forecasts seems to confirm this ratio, as the annual output from Plant 4 in the first 'steady state running' year 2024, is nearly exactly four times the output from Plant 3 for the same time period.
For me now the more intriguing question is, when are HL Pads 8 & 9 going to be built, and what might they add to the gold ozs output? Presumably around an extra 4,792/a, assuming that the extra ore required, can be mined, or indeed sourced from elsewhere?
As I say just my interpretation of what information has been provided so far, but I do believe that there are still a couple of pieces missing from this jigsaw.
ATB & GLA
Personally, I don't have any major worries with Caracal, on either the exploration or expansion fronts. As far as I am concerned they have a CFO of extensive knowledge and experience alongside a wealth of mining experience both at board and management level. If they need extra cash to fund the expansion programme then they will source it from any number of options available. But IMO that has never been a real source of concern, even during the periods where mining or refining has been adversely impacted by the expansion phases. As it is now if they paused the expansion works they could easily meet the previous 1000t/day operations target and service the needs of a fully operational plant 3, which to my thinking would enable them to easily produce 1000+ozs of gold/month. As it is the mine expansion phase should now be mostly complete, so achieving the 3,000t/day should be in sight, so the only non-teething problem, is IMO the new rock crushing facility, because without that the mined ore cannot be added to the Plant 4 HL pads as they come on stream.
So to my thinking all that is left is just mining or engineering works, largely unaffected by financial issues at this stage. Yes there will no doubt be tuning and operational issues, but nothing that cannot be resolved by a team with the Caracal experience, and skill set.
Having said all that, I do have one big disappointment, in as much as we have never seen the stated aim of a bi-weekly flow of drilling results, or even a monthly or quarterly news drop, even though we know the drills barely stop turning. at Kilimapesa.
I don't know what has prevented the news flow, but hopefully now there is a lab on site, this will be one blot that will be finally erased.
ATB & GLA
One thing we do know, is that he is someone who is doing what we would all like to do. So I have to applaud his effort to scoop up large amounts of Caracal shares at bargain basement prices. IMO, He has also shown the depth of his share dealing knowledge and has some powerful connections that have allowed him to accumulate such a huge number of shares in a relatively short timescale, without causing barely a ripple in the undelying SP. If any further proof were necessary of this, just contrast it with Robbie's announcement of purchasing a mere 1.5M shares at a premium to the current SP.
GL Gary James McConnell, and thank you for your powerfully expressed vote of confidence in Caracal Gold, and may you soon experience the extreme pleasure of your investment doubling in value.
Actually, I would suggest mickey1122, that it wasn't Francks belief that came shining through, but rather his consuming passion for all things geological. As Franck said, Geology is a science, so a consummate geologist of his calibre can read the geology of Kilimapesa like we read road signs.
So IMO someone like Franck cannot be attracted with just a salary, but rather you have to strongly interest him with both the quality and quantity of targets left to identify and explore. So with the geology of Kilimapesa being just an extension of the well explored Tanzania section of the greenstone belt the untapped potential of the area is undoubtedly a big draw for him as is refining the work in Tanzania with Franck2. Either way IMO Caracal is lucky to have attracted him, which in turn hopefully augers well for all of us.
ATB & GLA
@Suggins.
I think I finally understand what you are referring too?
The oversized Caracal Gold shirt being worn by a thin looking Robbie is actually an allegory for the value of the company, and whilst Robbie himself in this, of course represents the current SP performance. So once the Caracal BoD has run around and found 3k ton a day to feed the shrunken Robbie, he will swell up by 2,000ozs every month and in no time at all 'SP Robbie' will snugly fit the currently oversized Caracal Gold shirt, and may even need to upsize his whole wardrobe - In fact if all goes according to plan, it could all be over by Christmas?
Er, this is what you meant Suggins? ;0)
Personally, I will be happy to forgo snow this Christmas. and content myself instead with small flakes of gold falling out of the sky.
ATB & GLA
@sw10000, Yes a big thank you from me as well for posting this.
For so long it has been the missing piece from the jigsaw, so now at least we know that HL plant 3 is 3 x 7.5Kt and assuming the plan is all the same scale, that each pad in HL Plant 4, is the same size a the total capacity of all 3 pads in HL Plant 3 - which was for me the only way I could see the production projections working out.
Typically though Caracal still leaves me wondering though, as previously they have referred to HL Plant 4 as having 4 pads, or at least only referring to constructing 4 pads by the Eof 2022. So my question now is, do they plan to only build 4 of these pads initially, or do they plan to build all six but only effectively run 4 at any one time so that the overhead for building and removing the heap contents does not subtract time from the 'cook cycle'? or are they already hoping to produce more lower grade ore and plan to increase production up another notch - Robbie certainly likes to tease ;o)
My last conundrum probably just shows my total lack of understanding of how HL's are operated, but I cannot work out how you access pad 5 to fill and empty it. Lol
ATB & GLA
Hopefully ForrestGump, the will of the people is still paramount in this referral to the Supreme court, as all they can decide is if the process of recording the votes cast is a fair and transparent reflection of what happened, and therefore the Independent Election and Boundaries Commission have fulfilled their role, and the result stands. Otherwise the will of the people will have to be measured once more, as the court cannot overturn the result and award the presidency to someone else, merely nullify the current outcome and require a new election vote.
Additionally though, and quite fundamental, the Supreme court should rule on the legal obligations of the chair of the Independent Election and Boundaries Commission, that has been called into question.
Hopefully, the courts can strengthen and uphold the will of the people in this case.
ATB & GLA
Hopefully this result, now that it has been referred to the supreme court, will be be resolved without requiring another round of voting, otherwise a resolution could take at least another month.
At least there are set time limits for the court decision stage, and hopefully the process will add clarity to the role of the chair of the Independent Election and Boundaries Commission, without paralysing the process.
Here is what the BBC reports:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-africa-62647556
The only point that doesn't seem clear to me, is if the court nullifies the result, whether it is just the presidential election that is re-run or the whole thing. Hopefully it is just the presidential election but with only the two leading candidates on the ballot.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/62632383
Either way I'm guessing that news from Caracal is going to be thin on the ground until the election results are cut and dried. Thankfully though we are clear on the direction of travel for the upgrades, and we can only hope that the work can continue steadily whilst the presidential succession is resolved. As Suggins mentioned about the, 'stock box thingy yesterday with RRR', their CEO Andrew Bell did make the statement, but to be honest IMO, there is very little going on in RRR's holdings in the area at the moment and perhaps his comments were just a good excuse for current inactivity there?
ATB & GLA