We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Personally I would like to see the Assay results published even if the MRE is going to take longer, but whether by themselves they would excite new PI's, is a different matter. As far as I can make out the bulk of the gold at Kilimapesa Hill is not in the high grade range of 5g/t or above. As already discussed though that really doesn't matter, as my understanding of a JORC 2012 resource figure, is that it focusses on the gold that is economically extractable. So as we already have a producing mine with a plan to ramp up production, this is IMO the key factor to the success of Kilimapesa Hill, as the cornerstone of the Caracal story.
So assuming Franck and his drill team have done their job, in correctly placing the holes, necessary to provide the information, an increase in the JORC figure is guaranteed, as is a substantial increase in the measured and indicated figures for just Kilimapesa Hill. We already know that the success of the HL strategy is based on utilising the large amounts of lower grade gold that the open pit mining will economically produce, supplementing what was previously in the waste category when digging out the better grade gold from underground. So for us LTH's the Assay results may not excite, but hopefully with the expected MRE they will provide the warm comfortable feeling, knowing that we have bankable LOM figures, and confirmation that the possibly modest 24,000ozs/a figure is easily achievable for many years to come, and that the economics of the extraction process will generate a decent FCF that will finally excite not just us, but also II's and PI's going forwards.
On the reason for the delay it is only possible to speculate, but clearly Franck easily qualifies as a competent person who could have generated a rerated JORC, but if however, it is going to be used to used for some future fundraising as part of a BFS, or thrown into the mix during the NSE launch, then the competent person crunching the numbers and producing the report, has to be independent. Obviously an independent CP could take time to generate the supporting documentation and the required double checking, even if the actual MRE calculation, that probably just results from plugging the drilling/assay information into a software modelling program, could have been generated on time.
ATB & GLA
@Greg25,
Of course they can buy assets through non-dilutive methods like cash or through debt, but if memory serves me correct Robbie did indicate that each asset would have to support itself. Although quite what he meant by it I couldn't say. Fairly obviously though a creative CFO like Paul can probably find may ways to leverage the FCF to support funding for far larger projects, but IMO Robbie is still hoping that the Caracal team can relatively quickly find cheaply exploitable additional resources on the wider Kilimapesa exploration license, i.e. more open pit opportunities that can be licensed to be mined rapidly and the current Kilimapesa processing plant be expanded again to exploit the ore produced within easy trucking distance and push the ounces produced total up to the +50,000/a point.
Of course course if Nyakafuru can be granted a mining license in the next 12-18 months the financial landscape will change rapidly.
ATB & GLA
@ID78
Robbie is on record as saying that more acquisitions will take place when the time is right, which he defined as being when the MCAP is at least 80M but preferably nearer to 100M. Also that he does not see acquisitions as NOT being dilutive, if they add many times the value that they cost.
So yes Greg25 is completely correct in that as Robbie has always stated that he wants to see Caracal grow rapidly into a strong Mid tier Gold mining company, which is also why IMO Dan was attracted to join Caracal, because his vision is to promote mining across the whole of East Africa, and he sees Caracal as the perfect vehicle to start to move that dream along.
ATB & GLA
At the risk of seeming to disagree with the maximum number of people here, I will go out on a limb here and offer my take on a few points:
1. @ ID78 & aprogerson,
I would say that what the drone photo's show is just the first two 5K pilot HL constructions, and would refer you to the drawing plan of the initial 5K HL that was included in the Stockbox interview, about the first results of the trial HL pad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onzV-jwh-fo
at around 4 mins in a diagram pops up which if you rotate it, you can see how it fits over the drone photograph from Kilimapesa.
2. @itsyou
When you download the drone images to view the properties there are a few dates, but in the origin section, the photos are date stamped 03/05/22 and 04/05/22, whilst in the file section, the creation date and modified date is if you copied them today is of course todays date 04/07/22 (or indeed the American format).
3. @Greg25,
Cost may be a determining factor, as I don't know what the construction materials would be for an industrial scale HL using a permanent pad base, but I would have thought that an EIA might be necessary prior to build, and that would be tied to:
a) The pilot heap leach project completion in Q2.
And,
b) The feasibility study on the large commercial scale pad due to be completed in the same timeframe (and as prerequisite for any EIA).
Both of these will have impacted the timeline for Plant 4.
So far we haven't seen any official notification of what is planned to be built as Plant 4, other than projections for tonnage of ore and Gold production, plus as you point out, a timeframe for construction/commissioning.
IMO the movement of 480t/a of ore onto the pads, and 480t/a of waste off the pads and then disposed of, is a necessary part of the process that has to be optimised to keep the overheads to a minimum, so assuming that I am correct that the current drone photos are only showing the pair of 5kt HL pads, I believe Plant 4 will require an as yet unspecified site to be cleared on the mine license, particularly if future expansion is being pencilled in.
So this leads me to suggest from the the proposed number of pads, the tonnage of ore and the expected gold output, indicates that Plant 4 will be 80Kt, i.e. 4 x 20,000t/a pads each working on a 60 day cycle like Plant 3 - Obviously as I said this is just my guess, but hopefully the Q2 2022 update should clarify the situation.
ATB & GLA
@TrekMadone
Well thanks for cheering me up Trek, by sharing your wider perspective ;o)
At least from my worm's eye view I can at claim that he got the timing right at least, and certainly saved the rest of us PI's from having to mop up 100M shares sloshing around loose. On balance though, I think I will go full Greg on this one and say that Gary James McConnell is planning on having an extra £4M to spend by Christmas..... :o)
ATB & GLA
I don't know about OCD...Clearly Gary James McConnell is an avid follower of Rick Rule, and is putting into practice Rick's philosophy on value, rather than price...'if you decide it's undervalued compared to the price, it's time to get greedy'.
Personally I can only take my hat off to an HNW individual, who is demonstrating knowledge a skill in acquiring a substantial position in GCAT without pushing up the SP. IMO it is a massive vote of confidence in GCAT as an asset and an operation, that has rubberstamped the expansion plans already detailed.
At this SP, it would not surprise me in the least to see the buying continue until the tide finally turns.
ATB Gary James McConnell, and to all other PI's
@Greg25
An interesting perspective Greg25, and you may be correct about needing capital investment, but IMO this will not be the case because of two factors:
1. There is the larger plant 3 HL coming on stream, so additional gold will be produced.
2. If capital investment was being used, I would expect an accelerated time table to reach the 2,000ozs/m target.
ATB & GLA
@aprogerson,
Thank you for sharing your detailed analysis of how you project all the planned gold production targets will be met, and whilst I haven't checked the actual numbers, the calculation methodology is crystal clear thanks.
I realise that all you calculations are based on information extracted from various RNS's, which is completely correct, but as I said, the particular scab, that I'm picking at just stems from those Kilimapesa production projections, which for obvious reasons your calculations does not factor in. So I guess I will just keep scratching my head until a future RNS clarifies the factors hidden beneath Robbie's presentation, but thanks anyway.
ATB & GLA
@aprogerson,
Perhaps you can help me out as I am still having difficulty reconciling in my head how the projected 924,000t/a of ore necessary for 24,000ozs of gold/a divides up between plants 1,2,3&4. based upon a maximum of 30,00t/m passing through upgraded plants 1 & 2, the and plant 3 producing approximately 25% of the gold/a that plant 4 does. The only split of the ore tonnage that seems to fit is still what I suggested before:
600,000t/a (or 50,000t/m) through plants 3 & 4
324,000t/a (or 27,000t/m) through plants 1 & 2
Which at the time led me to believe that each pad in plant4 was 10,000t capacity, as was the total capacity for plant 3. Now though I believe that a more plausible scenario is that each pad in plant 4 is actually 20,000t, as is the total capacity of plant 3, but to reconcile this with the 600,000t/a throughput, the answer would have to be that each HL pad will 'run' for the originally proposed 60 day cycle.
Does this in any way fit into your view of the projected plant structure based on Robbie's, 'KILIMAPESA PRODUCTION FORECAST' on page 11?
ATB & GLA
@aprogerson
Listening to the questions replayed, I would strongly suggest that the 1.750M is in US dollars, as it was quoted at the same time as the AISC figure of 1200 to 1250 without mentioning currency, but we already know that value for the AISC is $1200-$1250.
Disappointingly though only one online question was asked and a few from the audience, but no one seemed willing to probe any of the main issues discussed here, which seems an opportunity missed.
ATB & GLA
itsyou
SNAP
@itsyou
If you are accessing the webinar from a windows PC, just right click on the video and you can save the video to your own PC - I assume they are ok with this action as it is not blocked. Then when you replay it in the media player you do have a scroll bar, so you can select parts that you want to repeatedly play and FF the first 39 minutes, unless you really are a big fan of naked mole rats ;o).
Unfortunately they do seem to have recorded their web feed rather than the source, so it seems to have all the broadcast drop outs in the sound.
ATB & GLA
@JerseyCrew
Like you, and others, I only expect the updated and improved MRE to provide the evidence of how sound Caracal's plans are going forwards. if that sends the SP upwards, IMO that will just be a bonus, as I personally believe that only regular gold sales are going to attract mainstream investor attention at this time.
The plan to bring the HL expansion to the fore of production is the clincher for me, as it ensures the revenue stream continues whilst the processing plant upgrades are completed.
I'm also grateful for Bebeto fishing out the previous Goldplat JORC re-rate details, as it demonstrates clearly quite how comprehensive and thorough Caracal's drilling operation actually is. I think that the fact that Golplat missed the open pit Mining opportunity on Kilimapesa Hill shows how much of a forensic examination is being carried out by the Caracal team with Franck at the helm. As was also said, with Riian's HL expertise on tap, Caracal can utilise lower gold grades to efficiently add those previously unused ounces to the balance sheet.
ATB & GLA
@predator7
Certainly if I were attending I would ask that question, but I suspect the answer will be that it was an exceptionally large Batch sent off for Assay, hence the long, slow turnaround.
I don't know the format for tonight, but I would hope that there will be an opportunity to submit questions online, as well as listening to the presentation.
ATB & GLA
Actually I just realised that I might have been a little quick off the mark about an RNS today as I noticed that the, 'Interim Results for the 12 months to 31 December 2021', landed on Fri, 29th Apr 2022 18:29, so I guess there is actually loads of time.
Perhaps he is going to post just before he begins his presentation tonight?
I guess we know how this one ends, at least for today.
No doubt the rationale will unfold tonight - perhaps the clue was in the lack of an RNS announcing the Assay results?
@RPdard,
You are correct RPdard, that Robbie did say there would be a cut-off point to allow the MRE to be calculated to an end date, I also believe that he said that a geologist was going to the Lab with the samples, which gave me the impression that the required information for the MRE was being assembled as the results came out.
Hopefully today is the day, but I prefer it proves the point rather than falling short because the results come slower out of Assay than expected.
Either way IMO, we will either see them today or get an explanation why not today.
For me the question is, would I rather have the MRE today, but not including all of Batch 3 Assay results, or would I rather wait a few days and have the complete picture?
Obviously I would much rather see all the Assay results and the MRE today, but if the Assay process or the MRE is taking a bit more time, is that such a big deal?
@Swampmonster
Like you Swampmonster I try not to be distracted by either the positive or negative POG predictions, but as ever it would be foolish to tune them out completely. So articles like :
https://ibisingold.com/article/detail/goldman-sachs-predicts-up-to-38-rise-in-gold-price/en
And this one from last year,
https://ibisingold.com/article/detail/next-year-gold-may-reach-usd-2200-per-ounce-banks-bought-record-amounts/en
Both are good indicators of a broadly positive sentiment that shows IMO, at worst, that POG is relatively stable when I'm examining the investment potential of Caracal. For me obviously an increasing gold price would be great, but the fundamentals at Caracal stand up to scrutiny across a decent range of movement in the POG.
Like the second article also predicted though, is that unfortunately, inflation should be a positive factor for us, and that is before a much anticipated recession spreading across the World, becomes a reality.
@aprogerson,
I'm sure you are correct that the remodelled Caracal processing can and will rely upon lower grades to meet their targeted output, if only by 'sweetening' the lower grades with sufficient higher grade ore to reach the desired blended grade to feed the specific processing plant, ( as suggested in the prospectus).
Hopefully though the June presentation with it's projected 924,000t/a requirement, to feed all the processing plants, they must already be fairly certain that sufficient higher grade ore is present, and further that most of the lower grade ore is easily mineable, or the natural by-product of mining the higher grades. Because as you have already said, aprogerson, the challenge is upping the ROM total to feed those hungry plants and having enough available to demonstrate an acceptable LOM..
ATB & GLA