RE: AGR TRACS timeline for CPR9 Jan 2018 19:16
Over at the other place, emptyend (a seasoned O&G investor) made the comment that he wondered why GBP mgt had decided to open their wallets to pay for the new 2D. He suggested that someone might have encouraged GBP to do this 2D on a promise.
Rather than opening the data room after the CPR is published, GBP could simply agree a farmout with that interested party if the terms were right. The delay in publishing the CPR *could* be linked with an imminent farmout. GBP may not get the very best deal, but a bird in the hand and all that....
What might also be pushing them all along quite quickly is the rig. GBP mgt may want to get a drill sunk into Gemsbok when a rig is in town as it cuts down the mobilisation costs and so means less of the 85% needs to be farmed out.
If I were one of the two majority shareholders, I'd want some speed applied to this now as the window of opportunity for offshore Namibia will only last so long - as does the licence extension. Rigs don't pass by offshore Namibia that often so, ideally, GBP's name will be against one (or two?) of the drill slots when a rig chugs into view.
So, yep, there could well be a farmin at the same time or very soon after the CPR is released.
Gemsbok is over a lot of water (1500m?) but is only another 1500m or so below the seabed - so it's not a really long drill time either as far as I can tell.