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In this morning's RNS, the CEO says: "We are delighted that AGR TRACS has confirmed the high level of prospectivity...." and "....we now have the time and flexibility to find the right partner to progress further this exciting acreage." Also, the POS should go up with the 3D to, hopefully, a number that would make it worth drilling. With three or more big players already farming into Namibian acreage, I reckon GBP will get their 3D and, most likely, a drill. It may not happen this week, but it will be soon enough.

This paragraph is interesting: "Oil seeps seen on satellite close to the mapped prospects and work on source rock maturity based on the recent 2D seismic mapping has further reduced the play risk, and it is expected that the POS will increase further following the planned acquisition of 3D seismic data." Sounds to me like a farmout will happen soon enough.... "planned acquisition" eh?

Global have 85% of the licence and have to fully carry the two partners with 10% and 5%, iirc.

A farmout is the objective here, but do we get (#1) an RNS for the CPR followed later on by an RNS for the farmout, or (#2) a single RNS for CPR & Farmout combined? We'd expect #1 but the wording of the RNS does perhaps allow #2. Maestro's "market sensitive news" points us to #1 but Oilspec's point steers us to #2.

*latest

From Tullow's lates Operations Statement: "Tullow plans to drill the Cormorant prospect on the PEL37 licence in Namibia in the second half of 2018 and preparations for drilling are under way. The prospect will target light oil and has a number of similarly-sized follow-up prospects in close proximity." Just thinking aloud here... Cormorant has a ~ 20% COS, so ideally Tullow needs another drill target in the Walvis basin but one that's not associated with Cormorant.... Gemsbok perhaps?

This is just speculation.... Tullow are bringing in a drillship in H2/18 for Cormorant in PEL0037 but no other targets have been announced...yet. It's unlikely Tullow would bring a drillship over to Namibia for just Cormorant. Tullow's campaign needs a large, high COS target.... something to improve the risk/reward for the whole campaign and to really get the basin/area going at last. Did Tullow nudge Global early last year? The timeline fits and shooting & processing 3D for a late H2 drill is still feasible.

...fair point, so perhaps the CPR is just being triple-checked ;-)

2d seismic location: https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/4590H_-2017-6-7.pdf Prospects on PEL0029: http://www.globalpetroleum.com.au/operations/namibia All of Gemsbok, the yellow prospect to the right in the operations map, was reshot with 2D whilst the large southern lobe of the central prospect was reshot. It's probably that the CPR could include figures for the central prospect as well as for Gemsbok. But just look at the size of Gemsbok....

I'm not sure that the 2D shows the oil seeps. Satellite imaging picks up oil on the sea surface: http://www.infoterra.es/products-globalseeps

as is the ask :-)

Hi maestro We're probably debating luxury features here :-) Any farm-out to shoot 3D and drill a well will be great and we will then see a share price way north of 3p. I don't want to be in the position of Eco Atlantic shareholders where some feel that Eco mgt have sold 25% of Orinduik to Total for peanuts compared to that licence's prospects updip of Exxon's megafinds offshore Guyana. But I'm happy to debate this what % GBP manage to retain as it's a nice problem to have ;-)

pay for all? You mean for the FPSO and getting to production too? :-) That's the beauty of this play: - no planning committees (see Wressle In Lincolshire, UK) - no fractured basements to prove (see Hurricane's Lancaster, etc, offshore UK) - well understood subsalt (Petrobras drilling offshore Brazil) - deepwater? 1500m is quite workable nowadays / reasonable latitudes and reasonable seas - stable country, licence looks pretty safe, free from Nigeria Delta issues, etc - 200km2 structural feature - wow!

GBP have 85% of PEL029, ie, Gemsbok. How much will 600km2 of 3D cost? $1.5mn? How much is a drillship to operate at 1500m above seabed and drill through 1500m of soil? $30mn? How much is 85% of 1bn bbls of oil in the ground worth once discovered? Say at just $1 bbl, then that's $850mn. What's the chance of success? Say 30% given it's structural and there are oils seeps from the flanks. So risked, Gemsbok is worth $250mn (if it's 1bn bbls) today. Management would be mad to farm down to 20% just to get 3D and carried for one drill. But we'll see.

I think the two majority shareholders won't be sitting back now. They've just waited to play the commodity cycle and it looks like they've done it well. They won't have waited this long just to sell/farmout too cheap - they could hang on to much more than 20% and get carried through a drill.

Hi wonderer If the CPR is as good as the recent GBP RNSs would imply, then there is no reason why a competitive farmin cannot take place and GBP can share a smaller % of the 85% held to progress Gemsbok :-)

This isn't specifically about Global petroleum, but some of the best investment opportunities that I've missed are because I held a jaundiced view of the management for too long and the management had started to change/do better and I hadn't noticed. Regarding Global Petroleum, I know that the CEO is paid too much for a small company and they've been sat on their bottoms during the oil price crash, but a few things have happened here that now look better: #1: management have negotiated a pretty decent extension to this licence (but with close enough deadlines that something gets done in reasonable time - well done MME) #2: management have organised this infill 2D seismic (but we still don't know what encouraged them to do it) #3: management have commissioned a CPR #4: management have awarded themselves quite modest options (see ECHO for larging it up with options) #5: management have somehow retained 85% of a really prospective block whilst peeing off so many smaller and larger investors that I've been able to load up with 1% of the company at less than cash :-) Believe me, this is heading in the right direction and sometimes you just have to live with less than perfect management because lots of other factors are coming into play as well (recovering oil price; interest in offshore Namibia; nearby drilling soon; etc) And don't forget the pretty positive RNSs and those oil seeps from the structural flanks --- Gemsbok is brimming with oil, imho.

Someone's sold 4 x 250k lots today yet the price is moving up. Two things: nice buying (including some larger trades to print later, I expect) and MMs starting to hold a few back for themselves I suspect.

Gas would sort of be nice but Kudu will supply plenty for the limited demand of Namibia. So if gemsbok were gas, I think it would remain stranded. It's oil that we're after. A small gas cap would be fine to power FPSO etc, but too much gas may be a problem. The RNSs and the oil seeps make think that we're definitely looking at oil here.

Now that AOC are on board, I wouldn't be overly sorry if Total didn't farm in. But they will. They'd be mad not to.