Crosspost from another place...15 Jan 2018 20:54
Thank you to emptyend for this insight:
"When the CPR is published, it will be useful to ask a few "what if" questions on the risking - and on the implications for adjacent prospects (and, indeed, the secondary objectives at Gemsbok) if a well were to come in.
I understand that the nearest proven source is 100km away but, in a lightly-drilled area like this basin, that isn't too surprising. If you were to assume (for arguments sake) that source is present, the CoS would double to 24.6%. There is, of course, no evidence one way or the other right now......but if source is there then it would ALSO derisk other prospects in the vicinity.....so the source risk seems even more key for potential upside of the plays in the area than it is for the structure itself.
Similarly, the other key risk is reservoir. Completely unknown at present until drilled....but carbonate reservoirs are important elsewhere in Africa so it seems a fair bet that reservoir quality would be good enough.
Seal seems not to be a major risk, with good shale seals in other wells and neither does trap, because the structure looks very robust on the 2D (though 3D may show more complexity).
So I'd say source is the main risk - but, if present, there could be really substantial upside, well beyond the volumetrics of the structure itself. And IIRC, there are seeps in the area, which at least suggest a source somewhere.
As wildcats go, it seems to have very attractive upside characteristics."
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