Member Info for OliGarch

Fruitster, you might want to amend or delete your last post as you have copied the link from your hard drive?

It will be an interesting day as far as the SP is concerned. I would like to think that this morning's trading update will calm things down. Having said that I'm usually way off the mark when it comes to making sense of this stock so perhaps it will plummet by around 20p????

Fruitster, I have been saying for years that we should be offering a doorstep collection service thus making better usage of our great last mile delivery posties. My wife will occasionally order a selection of clothing from a large online retailer and Hermes will deliver these and then collect the returns as required. Surely it can't be that difficult if Hermes can manage to do it?

Wolves, https://youtu.be/9EH1G4EwljM
lol

Fruitster, thanks for the BT update. I must have misheard regarding the £2bn, although £7bn is an eye watering amount!

Wolves, I'm not entirely sure that RM could be the subject of a takeover as it would need the approval of BoD, shareholders, OFCOM and possibly the government. Plus, who is going to offer to takeover a business that has to deal with the CWU? The likes of Amazon will just sit back and watch RM self implode, then pick up the business. No need to lay out a penny.
GLS however would be a different proposition.

Here is David Jones's take on the situation...
https://youtu.be/a0RCcDA0KsM

Wolves, Alan constantly mentions the 2 ladies in his life. I believe that one is called "Spoons"?....lol

Alan, I am surprised by the BT share price. Have you seen their pension defecit.? It's huuuge! The last meeting I went to they were talking in terms of around £2bn.....gulp

Fruitster, just picking up on your 09:39 post regarding redundancy.
I am aware that there is employment legislation surrounding redundancy and that there are minimum legal terms that Rico could use however he would not get any uptake on minimum terms so it would be pointless to offer it.
The current RM terms on VR are very good. An employee with 26 years of continuous service would receive a payout of 2 years pay of which the first £30k is tax free. This would explain why so many long term employees would be happy to take VR, especially as quite a few are already in receipt of their NRA60 pension.
Have said that, I attended a Q&A session with Rico at my office last October and he was adamant that there would be no VR on offer as staff reductions would be managed by natural attrition.

POD, RM have already stated that they are happy to lose around 7 to 8% of staff through natural attrition, year on year which would imply that they are planning to reduce staffing levels regardless of IA.

POD, it's a rather simplistic approach to say that industrial action will lead to "no jobs to protect" unless of course Rico is able to get an agreement on the complete overhaul of the USO and downsize RM to the size of a medium sized parcel delivery service with similar contractual terms and conditions regarding delivery. But that's not going to happen....
The reality is more likely to be that the industrial action ballot will return a similar result and RM will take it to court with the intention of having it overturned. The result of the court ruling will be pivotal however we already know that the High Court are opposed to industrial action where RM are concerned so the CWU probably only have a 40% chance of success anyway.
Regarding job losses following industrial action? Well South West Trains staff had 27days of industrial action between 1st and 31st of December 2019 and rail replacement bus services were laid on. The trains are now back up and running and it's business as usual as the service is as busy as it has always been. There was no clamour from the general public to exchange their train tickets for bus tickets and car sales didn't rise and as far as I am aware there were no job losses.
My point being that this spat between RM and CWU will be forgotten fairly quickly and there will be a return to business as usual.

Fruitster, even if RM were to go down that route the redundancy payments would be quite substantial? This would leave a large dent in £1.8bn.

https://www.thestar.co.uk/business/hermes-build-largest-warehouse-europe-south-yorkshire-creating-1300-new-jobs-1383168

Effing predictive text.... Take 2
POD, you have raised some interesting points here. If GLS was to be sold off then then that would raise some short term capital for RM which would allow the business to regroup and take a different approach.
As far as redundancies are concerned; that's a tricky area as you cannot backfill a post for (I believe) 12 months after making a redundancy payment so if RM wanted to kill off the CWU and pay off the militant workers with basic redundancy packages it would cost a fortune as most of the militants are 20+ year employees and the basic redundancy payment is 1 week for every year served.
In the meantime the business, the customers and the general public would suffer and I can't see the government allowing that to happen as they still believe that RM is a public service when it suits.

POD, you have raised some interesting points here. If GLS was to be sold off then then that would raise some short term capital for RM which would allow the business. As far as redundancies are concerned; that's a tricky area as you cannot backfill a post for (I believe) 12 months after making a redundancy payment so if RM wanted to lol off the CWU and pay off the militant workers with basic redundancy packages it would cost a fortune as most of the militants are 20+ year employees and the basic redundancy payment is 1 week for every year served.

So, it looks like RM and CWU have hit a brick wall regarding negotiations? I believe that the next 8 weeks will be a rollercoaster ride for the SP as the true value of this stock is £2.60+ (IMHO) but the uncertainty is holding it back.
Talking of Back, I seriously believe that if he is unable to negotiate with the CWU and the SP hits the buffers or the dividend is reduced or removed then there will be a shareholder revolt. The shareholders overturned his initial transfer terms so it shows that they have the clout.

Ispy, I don't know of any plans for RM to change it's attitude towards smokers however it is becoming a divisive issue as many of the smokers in my office will almost certainly spend around 60 mins per 8 hour shift on smoking. This time is aside from any paid meal relief and includes walking from their work area to the smoking shelter, having their cigarette/vape and a chin wag and then returning to their work area.
In the meantime the non smokers have to "hold the fort"? It's now at the point where some of the non smokers in my office will go and sit with the smokers (or go into the staff restaurant) when their smoking colleagues leave their work area for a cigarette.

Ispy, I had assumed that Wolves was referring to managers in terms of "flyers and plodders" but I may have misread the post.
We certainly have our share of managerial "plodders".

Ispy, I'm not advocating breaking any H&S legislation by "running around like a headless chicken" or "working through breaks" or "going beyond your time". No, no, no, my definition of "work a bit harder" would include such things as not standing around having a 15 minute chat with the cleaner or having one instead of two, ten minute cigarette breaks per hour (and yes, managers are just as much at fault here).
It doesn't sound much but it all adds up.
I hope that this explains my thoughts.