George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
The greenies are supporting Gas but do not know if it is relevant for Fog as well (got the text from another share forum):
Well did you hear Adam Vance from the Greens tonight 7:30 report ABC - mentioned Lib's & Labour plan to open 114 Coal & Gas developments, well does anyone know who/where the 114 sites will be?
is there a definitive list available?
Where does BLU fit into these 114?
We are getting better boundary conditions for gas in South Africa
Falcon and POQ should be more proactive in South Africa as well
https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/south-africa-government-takes-stake-in-indigenous-gas-field/2-1-1196202
If they had a real liquid loading problem and the well killed itself before the workover, I would say yes.
If the old tubing showed some liquid production before we had the work over, I would say be careful and do not get dissapointed. The production rate with a smaller tubing will not be increased, it can be even smaller because of more friction/pressure loss, but you should get a more stabilized gas and liquid production rate. Hopefully this produced liquid is condensed hydrocarbon and not salty reservoir water.
https://channel.royalcast.com/sparebank1markets/#!/sparebank1markets/20220303_1
Tlws act like losers
https://www.upstreamonline.com/opinion/namibia-basks-in-glow-from-venus/2-1-1177318
Russia is a very big cluster risk for Wintershall (north stream and most of the production is in Russia)
Perhaps Wintershall is interested in the Beetaloo?
Yes, EUs strategy for energy security is in deep shi§§ and Ukrains are suffering
SNM is going to buy Sarsang from Total and Lukas Lundin said SNM will be sold or merged. Could GKP be a possible partner for the Lundins?
SHAMARAN KAN SLJAS ELLER FUSIONERAS ENL LUKAS LUNDIN DI.SE (Direkt) 2022-02-18 09:21 STOCKHOLM (Nyhetsbyrn Direkt) Lukas Lundin
SLB, HAL, BHI and some others are the best oil field service companies.
All oil companies, small ones like Fog, big ones like Exxon or Aramco , all depend on oil field service companies and their special know how and unique technologies. But the service engineer often deals with a small piece of very special know how "only" and the personell from the oil company has to put this pieces together for the whole picture.
I agree and I beliefe that Org is a good and very experienced company for coal bed methan (CBM).
I beliefe and I am almost sure that SLB made a very good job for the production logging , including the log interpretation, which you can get from SLB as well.
But for SLBs estimates (I ask, has SLB really done this or was it just a number from a chat in the logging truck during coffee breake?) I would say: If the SLB engineer is an engineer who has worked mainly in Australia or in conventional fields as logging engineer for example I would be cautious concerning this estimation.
If ORG flew in an experienced SLB engineer from the US, who is an expert for the production performance of horizontal shale gas & oil wells , presenting a comprehensible model, calculation, simulation I would start to buy the 5 mill cft/d per 1,000 m.
To be clear: I am complaining how Org and Fog manage this Beetaloo project (at least for the part I can see) because this is an additional risk for us investors. I still have the hope, see the chance (but be carefull, I often have the behavior to ride the pony till it is dead) that one day we will or can hit the sweet spot of the Beetaloo with the right well, the best completion and the right fracking recipe. As the guys from the US from Pioneer I have the hope that the Beetaloo can become one of the first shale gas success stories outside of the US in a Western country.
But the water saturation values in combination with the reservoir water proofed with a chemical analysis (this should be a hard fact) during the first production still make me a little bit nervous (do they have relative perm curves, an idea about the interfacial tension, and combined this with pore throat size and Sw for a realistic cut off?)
Longknive,
I have sent no mail to Fog.
This fivefold is bullshi# because:
When you have a more or less horizontal hole section, you have the biggest pressure difference (delta p) at the heel. At the toe of the horizontal section you have the smallest delta p. So, in the case you have a perfect homogeneous reservoir you will get q= x cft/ d from the 200 m heel section. The law of physics will teach you that you will get q = ( x minus y ) cft/d from the toe section.
FOG&ORG could argue that this 5fold works out because the geophysical logs show a much better porosity and permeability in the toe section and this is the reason that you have no (minus y ) cft/d from the toe section.
But even this possible argument I would not buy from them. It could work out in the case you have dry gas. But Fog&Org reported that we got liquids (frac fluid, condensed water, condensed hydrocarbons, reservoir water). In such a case the delta p for the heel and the toe is even more severe.
If you have, if you expect fluids I even question if it is the right strategy to drill 2.000 m horizontal sections and I am sceptical
ONnly if you have more or less "dry" gas, I would say it is a good idea to drill long horizontal, 2.000 m sections for a better production rate.
And Org, Fog delivered crooked holes (= drilled the horizontal wall path upwards with dog legs) = bad
Because it is technical, geological difficult it took so many years for little steps forwards in the Beetaloo. Org and Fog should hire experienced shale gas, oil personnel to prevent failures like damaged casings, strange well pathes, not good planned and executed lifting jobs, and calculations of normalization I do not understand how it could work out
Yes, in this case I am just an armchair pet eng with limited infos and data, but with the available info and data I come to the conclusion as written here.
... ( the price of this mitigation strategy: I was in meetings where we decided to drill to, into the geological fault to hit natural fractures for a better production rate.)
Still the normalization calculation is untrustworthy IMO. The trustworthy part is the Schlumberger production log with the production rate from the first 200 meters . But it is untrustworthy and too simplified to say and then we have a fivefold production per 1,000 m horizontal section because physics and heterogeneity of geology work against this conclusion.
Altogether for my own technical learning curve interesting but not so good for my financial investment here. We need a sustaining commercial production rate ASAP, or you can buy Fog shares at a very low level again. And hopefully the high water saturation values are not the explanation for the next excuse.
@darnit
Is a very interesting article for me. 25 years ago I did not waste time, reading chinese petroleum engineering papers. But that has changed and I will copy this Chinese paper for my own paper collection.
@805
"It was explained as someone stepping on a hose" I think POQ is meaning that the negative effect of a deformed, collapsed casing is comparable to a situation when someone steps on a hose.
@H2
As you, I did not see the reactivated fault as main problem from a geological perspective as well, because the Beetaloo is very old and I expect stabilized, not complex, and the published geological interpretations do not show big and/ or many tectonic faults ( far away from a situation as you see in the Groningen gas field, but perhaps closer to the situation you had when Cuadrilla had their problems in England)
After reading the Chinese paper I want to congratulate (this is sarcastic) Org and Fog to a 100 % failure rate for deformed casings. You beat Argentina, China and the US :-(
The first mistake can be done when a casing is selected. A too cheap casing is bought with too small wall thickness, wrong material, too much ovality. The second mistake can be done when the quality control was lazy or when the casing was damaged before running the casing into the hole. The third mistake can be done whe7n the casing is damaged during running it into the well (because of a dog leg, so severe that you reach the plastic deformation of the casing)
But it was communicated that it was the fault of the geological fault and it can be explained with the Chinese paper with the link from Darnit. I assume that if the diameter restriction was there already before pumping the frac the operator would have had troubles to install the plugs (and this was not reported) But perhaps mistakes 1,2, 3 in combination with a bad cement job (which is always difficult in horizontal wells) as mistake 4 increased the risk of a casing deformation (and I assume that the liner was cemented because I did not check the cementing plan in the public available infos for the wells.
But POQ offered the geological fault as explanation for the casing deformation and I would explain and interpret the situation with my own words like this now:
Obviously the stability of the geological faults is dodgy in the Beetaloo at potential reservoir depth. When the frac fluid is pumped into the formation it can enter such a geological fault, causing a geological shear slip. Already a 7-10 mm shear slip creates a shear compression stress on the cement and casing. End of the story: the casing can be damaged, the inner diameter gets reduced and finaly the casing is collapsed (as if somebody stepped on a water hose). And this situation is comprehensible for me now. It explains why they want to spend money for a seismic as well - to map for avoiding the geological faults ( the price of this mitigation strategy: I was in meetings where we decided to drill to, into the geological f
Time is working for the Beetaloo IF Fog can present the sweet spot with sustaining production rates, because shale will (? and when?) run out of sweet spots in the US.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Running-Out-Of-Sweet-Spots-The-Biggest-Problem-For-US-Shale.html
Have not the time to replay. But did I understand correctly?
Did he say: The fault is seen as reason of deformation of casing.
Hmm, I think the fault was not reactivated after casing installation and that's the reason the fault is not the direct reason.
Perhaps an indirect reason. Org was drilling. Because of the fault the well site geologist showed an overreaction because he got afraid to loose the formation, ordered a sharp change of the well path and the directional driller drilled a dog leg. The dog leg then created a plastic deformation of the casing. So this casing was deformed by the forces of the dog leg, the too weak casing material and not by the fault.
Is keeping away from faults a good idea? This Could be the reason for spending money on 3D seismic for a better planning of the drill path. But it is two-edged:
No: if you try to get a reservoir with good permeabilities for better production rates.
Yes: because than you have perhaps less drilling problems or production problems with natural fractures full of water perhaps.
Fingers crossed they get it right next time.
100 % agree with Wet and Rocker
But I am not sure about this sentence:
"Falcon/Origin probably saw the flow rate numbers holding steady for a period of time and called it done."
Done because ....?
Interesting question from Will.
Spontaneous answer: because of 2 weeks, 4 weeks on - off shifts perhaps and money limitations.
Serious answer: when you plan such a test you want to reach some targets and get some answers and measurements. And this will rule the duration of the test and you have to know that every reservoir, even every well is different that means will need more or less time.
A good well will kick in fast and the time for the flow back will be short. A bad well will need more time and the help for lifting with coiled tubing. The longer you produce, the deeper you can "look" into the formation, by interpreting the pressure signature. Is it a reservoir with pressure support ( for example an aquifer), is the reservoir big or just small etc etc.
The final production curve is important: https://www.eia.gov/analysis/drilling/curve_analysis/
I think the B2B text is a realistic statement.
First, Sto and Org delivered mixed production test results.
The good news first: both delivered production test results, good enough to do the next steps as you can read about the next planned steps.
But unfortunately not good enough that the share prices of Fog , and of the neighbors shoot to the moon. Both operators (Sto, Org) seem to have technical problems and are still searching the code for cracking the Beetaloo. I think the input of the new invested US teams, the input of the service companies like Schlumberger, Halliburton etc can and will help.
In the US it always took some years and many not so optimized wells till somebody said: ok, that's it, we know now where and how to drill, how to do the completion and how to do the hydraulic stimulation. ((you just have to read the history of Mr. Mitchel, the N Dakota story, the Permian, the Wolfcamp etc.)
Second: So at the end of this day we are still doomed to wait for the next results, hoping for higher sustaining production rates.
New2fo,
I assume Sto/Tnb used logging while drilling (LWD) for the horizontal section. With this logs you can select the best parts for stimulation.
The other approach is, to pump a frac every xy meter depending on the expected drainage area of the planned frac stage, when you have a homogeneous reservoir.
The not so good news of today: only 75% are carried by Org of 2022s work program
Falcon Oil & Gas is pleased to provide an update on the Beetaloo Sub-Basin. 2022 will see Falcon Oil & Gas progressing to the Stage 3 work programme of the restated Farm-Out Agreement, which will include the drilling, fracture stimulation and extended production test of two horizontal wells.
“This is an extremely important period for the Beetaloo Sub-Basin and we are delighted to have confirmed a high-impact, extensive and really exciting work programme for the joint venture.
“Falcon remains largely (circa 75%) carried for 2022, with the balance of costs being funded from existing resources. Positive results here will provide a further line of sight to the commercialisation of the Beetaloo and could lead to a pilot development program in 2023.” - Philip O’Quigley