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On hotcopper SmallFish and Fitz discuss the mind-boggling big numbers of the Beetaloo:

Gross end-customer revenue: ~US$1.65 trillion

At the wellhead (TBN share): ~US$1.0 trillion

Free cash flow (after opex + royalties): ~US$625 billion

Royalties to Sheffields: ~US$22.5 billion

They are mentioning Mitsui. For me, Mitsui is not a player, keen to secure a dominant share in operating the Beetaloo. Mitsui could be a candidate who could put 1 billion $ on the table to get the 22.5% from FOG. Mitsui Oil is active in the Marcellus and should understand clearly the potential of FOG`s Beetaloo share.

Instead of ... Mr O`Quigley had been instructed ...perhaps I’d better say, .... in anticipatory obedience....

Why do the Sheffields need FO for TBN?

- Do the Sheffields want to grab the 22.5% as the most lucrative piece for themselves?

- Was TBN too small for a substantial farm-out and subsequent substantial full sale?

- Were the Sheffields annoyed with O’Quigley because he sometimes covered project costs, sometimes only took a smaller share, or sometimes didn’t participate at all? Who wants such an odd joint venture partner in the oil industry?

- Have the Sheffields already agreed with a major that this major will take over the merged TBN+FO (respectively become the dominant operator) and receive a “premium” for it because a major like Exxon, Shell, etc., can’t act as casually in taking over FO and prefers to be the dominant operator in a basin? The FO share alone wouldn’t be enough for the dominant operator, and if TBN’s share were used for this, there wouldn’t be much left of TBN. The FO share would have been ideal for a large gas buyer only who, by their own understanding, doesn’t need to be the operator.

P.S.: I already have tissues at home.

Future

With the drive that the Sheffield team operates with, it won’t let itself be stopped from taking over our bird with TBN.

What we FO shareholders lose: FO could have achieved the highest value in the entire Beetaloo on its own if O'Quigley had managed to sell FO or our 22.5% stake instead of just passing it on to the Sheffields.

Hope dies last. Perhaps a white knight (ADNOC, Qatar Energy, Kogas, or one of the Japanese samurais) will still emerge. Perhaps there’s enough desperation among the shareholders (because CEO O'Quigley is a complete failure) and we manage to organize ourselves and improve the first passed-on offer from the Sheffields?

Fundamentally, I think we can live with the merger, but thanks to CEO O’Quigley, the optimum wasn’t achieved. In my opinion, it would be important to understand what the Sheffields plan as the next steps with and for TBN and whether they will let us share in the profits after we’ve had to abandon the optimum.

Present

Today, we can assume that O'Quigley had already been instructed by the Sheffields back then not to sell FO. This would explain why O'Quigley has been very successful in NOT offering FO to other oil companies for a farm-in or making a takeover attractive. After all these years, O'Quigley has failed to generate added value for FO shareholders (except perhaps for the Sheffields?) and the narrative that he is an inactive manager who hasn’t even managed to prepare a data room and isn’t worth his salary will likely stick with him, I think.

Past

As a manager, O'Quigley was already inactive several years ago and failed to claw back ORG's share. Mr. Riddel with TBN was the clear winner, who also brought in the Sheffields. The Sheffields developed a plan for the Beetaloo a few years ago and bought shares in FO, TBN, and BTL, as well as founded DWE, to become the dominant player in the Beetaloo. In spring 2024, B. Sheffield last purchased FO shares.

"Since I hold influence over 5.5 percent of the stock I will be recommending a no vote here. I would encourage others to do the same. I think at this point it is obvious that POQ is not acting in the interests of all the shareholders. I think we will need to seek a legal remedy to this situation. I think the courts will need to install a caretaker regime to guide Falcon through an orderly bidding process"

Camelot I think it is worth to go for a fight or this shalegas gem Fog will be sold too cheaply.

Perhaps we can organize something here. Do you already know if you can join the Shareholder meeting?

Could you represent the 5.5% there? If yes I would like to offer you my rights for voting according to my shares as well.

I think it is not a completely unfair deal in the current situation. But 169 $ / acre is not enough for the expected value (unrisked with all the commercial test rates) of 2,000-13,000 $/acre of Fog for one million acres.

Fitz was the prophet on Hotcopper:

Worth also remembering the capabilities of Sheffield's team. Ain't their first rodeo. FOG will be smashed at some point!

A) The Data Room Failure

"Philip O'Quigley was so inactive that he failed to even set up a data room for companies interested in acquiring FOG’s one million acres in the Beetaloo Basin (which is more attractive than TBN's acreage because it is free of Overriding Royalty interests [ORG])." If you plan to sell an asset like the Beetaloo you prepare a data room first before you invite the other oil companies. Lazy or he did not know or he did not want to do this data room preparation???

B) Aligning with New Management

"Philip O’Quigley knew from the outset that the Sheffields planned to integrate FOG into TBN (a coherent strategy for the operating company) and sought to ingratiate himself with the new leadership."

C)

Philip O`Quigley did not understand that the Sheffields do not want to allow him to sell FOG

Conclusion:

"If either or all of these points are true, Philip O’Quigley delivered a negligent performance as CEO of FOG on behalf of shareholders.

I suspect Philip O’Quigley did not post here on the LSE forum himself. However, I am convinced that some individuals in contact with him were acting as his echo chamber here.

Intriguingly, one poster on Hotcopper has been writing for weeks that FOG is finished.

Odie

hotcopper is a big forum for shareholders in Australia and as long as lse does not allow to post images, I can give you only this hotcopper link (which asks for an email adress from you)

Fitz: Hannam values the TBN 80% of Phase 2 at US$2.7 billion = US$8,400/acre.

O'Quigley gave FOG away for 169 $/acre.

And he gave the Karoo away for 0 $.

Do you think the Sheffields and Stoneburner respect O'Quigley, who was talking about phone calls from interested farmin partner from all over the world for the FOG Beetaloo share recently? I think there are not many white knights left who could challenge the Sheffields/TBN till Q1 2026.

Https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/image-png.7335571/?temp_hash=71946a34d8ea43550537ef3c8e23e743

Do you think that POQ is doing phone calls and sending emails to the mentioned oil companies 24/7 now?

Longknife

agree, last chance for ADNOC, Qatar Energy, Inpex, Kogas, Petronas etc to make it work with a low ball offer.

The majors like Exxon, Shell, Total Chevron etc won*t touch it because with 22.5% they cannot become the dominant operator of the Beetaloo.

The oil companies in Australia like Santos, Woodside etc overslept this chance and opportunity in their own backyard. I guess this chance is gone for them.

Answering my own question:

our FOG shares will be listed as TBN shares in NY

On completion, Falcon will distribute Tamboran shares to eligible shareholders of Falcon at an

exchange ratio of 0.00687 shares of Tamboran NYSE Common Stock for each Falcon Common

Stock. Falcon shareholders will own ~26.8% of the pro forma business. Tamboran stockholders

will own the remaining 73.2%.

I always watched TBN very closely. But I never bought TBN because I thought FOG is in a better position and has a higher value.

Gosh, I was wrong.

And I'm taking it personally. It was POQ's inactivity that led to this result.

I recall the words of POQ about the clever checkerboard strategy, where FOG can decide whether to join or not.

Now the big boss Sheffield has decided and finished this childish FOG strategy because it does not fit into his Beetaloo masterplan. When you have a gas and oil asset you need reliable partners who help funding future projects. And it is part of standard joint venture agreements that the operator can go for a sole risk project. But in such a case, the mute is not good within the joint venture agreement partners. And POQ sitting only in Dublin thought that he outsmarted the big oil and gas boys.

Yes, good deal for TBN. They took over Fog for 169 $/acres and a 4% discount to TBN`s acre value.

POQ clearly dropped the ball to get 2.000-12.000 $/acre for a better take over offere. I say this because POQ was a lazy and inactive CEO, who was unable to initiate a deal with another big oil company. I think this was a part of the Sheffield master plan.

Clearly TBN has the dominating share of the Beetaloo now. Some years ago FOG had the dominating share of the Beetaloo. Shame on POQ.

.

Here you find the presentation

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-03001126-2A1625511&v=c2533a54e2514fb77a8f93f84db686e1125273e9

My new TBN shares will be listed in Australia or USA?