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2 new research reports from and about TBN
https://www.tamboran.com/research-reports/?agreed
I think this is my favorite option too as longknife has written: Most likely I see a deal being made w Tamboran where they need to carry us farther down the line or we bring in a JV partner (similar to what we did w origin) and get carried further down the line!
Thank you for the replies.
In 2014 Fog farmed out to be carried for a 200 million $ 9 well work programm which was increased to 263 million $ in 2020 and Fog reduced the Beetaloo share from 100 to 22,5%.
One more billion new shares now to get the 77,5% back from Org minus 5,5% royality in the future would not sound like a very attractive deal with Org since 2014 for me when you compare not just the costs coverd by Org and see the delivered results for Fog from Org since 2014.
Only the perhaps real big size of perhaps 147 TCF could justify 2 billion Fog shares. If in 2014 Fog would have decided to operate the Beetaloo 100% for farming down after commercial production tests to get the best price, we would have 2 billion shares today as well from dilution , I guess - but without 5.5% royality for Org and perhaps with better production test rate results?
In the case FOG is going to buy the 77.5% Beetaaloo share from Org, we can expect FOG is going to raise capital and we will see new shares and massive dilution. Has anybody an idea for the price of new FOG shares? What do you think. Will the CR offered dirt cheap to some sophisticated investors and crony capital only or will we as long timers get an offer and chance as well?
Because of the expected dilution in this scenrio and the lack of any operational experience, nor any active relationship with australian stake holders because FOG prefered to be the passive joint venture partner I am not sure if the buying of the 77.5% is the best option.
What`s the difference for us longtime holders. In the one scenario TBN/Sheffield steal the 77.5% share for a song and in the other scenario sophisticated investors and crony capital steal the 77.5% share for a song as well. Or do you realy think POQ is working on a beneficial concept for us retail investors?
Beetaloo
If it is as you say:
"if I am not mistaken, a preemptor has the option to enter into a valid purchase agreement on the same terms. Thus, the question about the subsequent $1 increase is moot."
Than it is a good idea to go Sole risk. But as nobody offered a better bid to Org it can become a long 100% waiting Game again. On the other Hand I would be surprised if Mr Sheffield gives up easily?
I am afraid we are cought in a catch 22 situation.
When I mentioned that Sheffield could invite POQ to a breakfast the answer was that POQ would not do it for a pancake. But I think this is the most cost effective solution for Sheffield. Give POQ 10 million $ and this is still cheaper than anything else for him.
But I would love to hear if POQ and his cooperating FOG shareholders have prepared a coup in the meantime with better results for the value and price of the FOG shares.
Mr Stoneburner`s quote (annual report TBN) who is hunting 147 TCF
"Financial year 2023 is already shaping
up to be a transformational year for
the Company. In September 2022, we
announced the acquisition of Origin
Energy’s operated Beetaloo Basin
acreage. This transaction, which is
expected to be completed by the
end of October 2022, will make
Tamboran the leading acreage holder
and operator in the Beetaloo, with 1.9
million acres and approximately 147
TCF of net prospective gas resources."
Some got the hope that STO could be a white knight for FOG. But why should STO buy now ORG`s 77% for a higher price when they had already in the past a chance to do a deal with ORG and competing with TBN/Sheffield? I would be surprised if STO becomes active.
Since how many months we have read that Org plans to sell the Beetaloo? If POQ would have prepared a "counterattack" I think we would have seen already a presentation. Very seldom that a major oil company does the DD and farmin for an asset like the Bettaloo at such a stage within just 30 minus x days. I would be suprised if a major oil company becomes active.
Thw swiss guy who has sold FOG shares recently? I would be surprised if he would become active .
The russian billionair? not allowed
Another unknown billionaire like Mr Sheffield or an irish contact or an flexible independent oil company? Obviously no signed agreements till today. Perhaps somebody could explain: What if FOG sends an offer to ORG till end of October. But TBN/Sheffield send a new offer to ORG on 1st of november, which is 1 $ higher than FOG`s offer. Has FOG lost everything or would ORG not be allowed to accept a new 1st of Nov offer from TBN/Shefield?
IMHO I think the only realistic point POQ could make: offer Mr Sheffield a deal that FOG does not prepare a counter offer for Org`s share and for the good will you get carried for one more well or something like this and I still would not rule out that the whole problem will be solved by Sheffield with a golden handshake for POQ...?
I use https://duckduckgo.com/ as browser
Hess had no more motivations to stay in the Beetaloo and it was for them okay to give it up. In those days Hess, together with Exxon were discovering their elephant oil fields in Guyana and of course Hess was concentrating on and allocating resources and funds for this conventional world class new oil basin. I think a plus point for POQ was because he grabbed 100 % of the Beetaloo so fast and hard that nobody else had a chance to think about making Hess a competitve offer. But you do no have to be the world`s hardes pokerplayer to convince Hess to give up the Beetaloo in those days.
Org is motivated to give up upstream. But it will be a little bit harder to convince Org to give up the Beetaloo because Org as utility company is interested and motivated to get some gas from the Beetaloo. I think buying the Beetaloo from Org is a harder negotiation job than getting the Beetaloo back from Hess.
And I think it will be a much harder negotiation job to thwart the motivations of the Texas oil and gas billionair Mr Sheffield with his codriver TBN (which is not just Mr Riddle but some well connected and successfull wealthy australian businessmen with oil and gas experience in Australia).
But fingers crossed that Mr POQ has got this negotiation skills and success to maximises the value of Fog`s Beetaloo share with the best possible deal.
Have Fog extended the Licence in Karoo or have they overslept the expire day in Dublin? Do we need another Mr Sheffield in South Africa that they wake up and become active there as well?
Asset Name : South Western Karoo
Ref : AF-ZAF-SWK
Continent : Africa
Country : South Africa
Location : Onshore
Project Phase : Frontier
Latitude : -32.7242
Longitude : 22.3854
License Start : 2011
License Expiry : 2021
Operator : Falcon Oil & Gas
indeed a cheap offer
https://www.farmoutangel.com/assets/south-africa-south-western-karoo/
https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/295c865c-f1d.pdf
page 37: Risks associated with the acquisition of the Origin Assets
hay wetwater
you have to read the listed risks in this TBN presentation
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-tamboran-acquisition-and-capital-raise-presentation.6967897/#post-63793162
see page 37
Hmmm
Mr Sheffield triggered a very interesting situation in the Beetaloo with his move to controll the Beetaloo.
Perhaps this can become the effective trigger that not a white knight but a major thinks now that now it is time to join this thrilling shale gas poker round and chess game in the Beetaloo... and then I agree with your scenario, wetwater. But 29 days is a very short period for every oil company with deep pockets if Mr POQ has not the prepared and pre- signed contracts already in his drawer.
wet water
Oleo: I know a guy that loosely controls about 15 -20% of the outstanding Falcon stock. I also know the Falcon's Board is in Philips corner. If Philip is fighting to acquire 100% of the 4.6 million acre concession for Falcon's benefit, then I don't see BS getting enough shareholder support to do what you are thinking.
I hope you are right with this. But I think it will become a tough fight and I would be not surprised if the Texas oil billionaire has one more ace up his sleeve after keeping Dublin in the dark?