Member Info for Oleo

Is Mr POQ communicating and in contact with Mr. Tseliso Maqubela?

https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/south-africa-on-brink-of-tapping-into-orange-basin-oil-reserves-says-dmre-2574db2e-9e87-4fb6-b120-3ef44fc1e0ad?

Https://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/australia-and-the-world-needs-gas-and-the-nt-has-it/news-story/11919e14df94aed1a87ee6fdbc8b3ebf

When memory serves, the stress is in the vertical part of the well in a connection.

This can happen when the connection is overtorqued, or when they have a not allowed dog leg severity there for example.

There are easy fixes for example when you have access to the annulus or sophisticated fixes which could end up being expensive or even losing a well section in the worst case when the more sophisticated fix goes technically wrong.

WW , the rodeo line is a line I copied from HC.

I guess you read the whole Hart Energy artikle.

"Next, Sweetpea Corp. picked up permits in the early 2000s and drilled the vertical Shenandoah #1 in 2007 but to only 5,000 feet and stopped.

Falcon Oil & Gas took over four permits in 2009. It re-entered and deepened Shenandoah #1, renaming it the #1A, to 8,900 ft. In 2011, it did the first hydraulic frac job in an Australian shale.

In 2011, Hess Corp. farmed into Falcon permits. Hess had to leave a few years later, though, when activist investor Elliott Management persuaded it to sell down to only the Bakken and Guyana.

South Africa’s Sasol partnered with Falcon, drilling three verticals and one horizontal in 2015 and 2016.

Around that time, Pangaea Resources drilled some wells in the westernmost Beetaloo.

And Tamboran farmed out 75% of one of its permits to Santos.

Then the Northern Territory put a pause on completions. Very little was done in the Beetaloo for the next four years.""

During this time Fog respectively Mr POQ made the right decisions and Mr POQ was a sharp manager kicking Hess out and organizing free carries.

Afterwards with his passive approach he put FOG into a loser position and Mr Riddle is counting the points.

Mr Riddle did the deal with ORG.

Mr Riddle called and invited Mr Sheffield to get money for the ORG Deal

Mr POQ did not call and convince Mr Sheffield ( or anybody else) that if he would wrestle back the ORG share for FOG, that Sheffield ( and we) would have 100% of the concession ( which Mr Sheffield would have liked more) especially when a super major puts 60 billion $ on the table not just to get commercial producible reserves but to get the the dominant operator position and the drivers seat in the Beetaloo basin.

Riddle hired US specialists for shale gas from Pioneer Apache etc. Not Mr POQ.

Mr POQ is not capable to identify a casing deforming risk when the operator sends him the work program (or if he picked up the phone which I doubt , to discuss this risk with the other joint venture share holders for mitigations - it is cheap to finger point now to the TBN team when FOG accepted the work program from TBN. As a result we see a stressed casing.

TBN is in the news, social media etc,. FOG not.

As non operating minion it is an argument to reduce the share for the high cost phase. But especially when the 2 currently stimulated well deliver, the bigger part of the learning curve is passed. Mr POQ is wrong to concider the option to reduce the % or even go down to 0% because than you have no access to the data.

It is good when Mr POQ plans to do PR in the US. Did we see any results? But for a minor, non operating partner FOG it is a more logical take over target for one of the big O&G companies in Asia, where the Beetaloo gas will be consumed.

Why do we not see Mr POQ inviting Asians for a visit to the Beetaloo, after he did not invite Mr Sheffield from the US for a vis

A very active TBN

https://ir.tamboran.com/_assets/_b2bf3725bfce4403cb0c6c6c582c5c0d/tamboran/db/919/10386/file/Tamboran+Resources+Corporation_250212.wav

https://api.investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/7d6c77b9-0f9.pdf

On the other hand FOG is under the radar hidden in Dublin.

Since POQ is not capeable to deliver usefull updates from Beetaloo for the market, here a TBN sum from Fitz, HC:

Beetaloo Basin vs. Marcellus Shale Highlights(JR remarks in Analysts Q&A)

Similarities to Marcellus:

The Beetaloo Shale is noted for its similarities to the Marcellus Shale.

Completion designs in the Beetaloo were initially modeled after successful techniques used in the Marcellus.

Beetaloo's Advantages:

Higher Porosity and Permeability: The Beetaloo Basin shows slightly better porosity and permeability compared to the Marcellus, making it potentially more productive.

Adaptable Completion Design: While starting with Marcellus-based designs, Tamboran has tailored its approach (referred to as the "v2 design") to suit the unique conditions of the Beetaloo, optimizing stage spacing and pumping intensity in real-time.

Faster Optimization Curve: Unlike the Marcellus, which took hundreds of wells to refine completion techniques, the Beetaloo operations are making rapid adjustments and optimizations early in the drilling program.

Operational Insights:

The company highlighted that the Beetaloo Basin benefits from modern drilling technology, allowing real-time adjustments during operations.

The rock quality and pressure regime (0.6 psi per foot) contribute to the ease of placing high volumes of sand and proppant, surpassing initial expectations based on Marcellus operations.

Challenges and Mechanical Issues:

A mechanical stress anomaly was detected during operations, which the company emphasized is a common occurrence in U.S. shale plays like the Marcellus, Permian, and Eagle Ford.

This mechanical issue was addressed with reinforcement, and it was clarified that it had no connection to the reservoir quality.

Overall: Tamboran Resources believes the Beetaloo Basin not only mirrors the Marcellus in many ways but may even exceed it in terms of rock quality and production potential, with the added benefit of modern technology enabling faster optimization of drilling and completion method.

Not my first rodeo, all y'all.

POQ`s youtube video from 3 months ago has 279 visitors

TBN/Brian Sheffield Beetaloo youtube video from 3 days ago has 28.973 visitors.

POQ killed the FOG shareprice by a conspiracy of silence. He even did not go to Australia to give Chuck Yates an interview to present FOG in this video.

Especially when the market of the future LNG produced from the Beetaloo is in Asia and not in the USA.

"TBN this weekend is wrongly valued {based on ordinary shares issued only} at less than USD 300 per acre, and Falcon {based on shares issued and unissued share options}.at c. USD 110 per acr"

This US$/acre price is a good way to compare the 3 players TBN, EEG and FOG in the Beetaloo.

You could ask now. Who got the better strategy, the better management, more success, FOG or TBN or EEG? This part B. Sheffield will always win because he got already shares from all 3 companies.

The Riddle interview can be found on youtube as well now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w74jFqs5YIg

Since POQ gave up the driver`s seat for the Beeatloo basin we have to take the TBN roadmap and timeline with milestones and the 2 x 1 BCF/d gas production plan:

https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/screenshot-2024-09-07-at-12-45-11-png.6445558/?temp_hash=daceb2da2b19664e13b012eeadf07574

Hopefully POQ does not stumble because he shied away from the first important step to early production & cash flow with the 4 planned production wells in 2025/26.

Riddle as former Exxon engineer prepares TBN to be taken over by a major oil company (as Exxon). The majors are mainly interested to be the operator and to have the dominating share in a basin as the Beetaloo (all which POQ gave away with FOG during the past years).

So a major oil company would be interested to buy FOG shares only when they plan to buy TBN PLUS FOG. And in such a case such a major must be very, very, very keen to get the gas from the Beetaloo.

Therefore, I think it would make much more sense that POQ travels more often to Asian O&G companies, who see an advantage in having a major oil company as an operator (after a TBN take over scenario) and would love to sell Australian Beetaloo gas to Japan, China, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore ... Instead of ordering ribeye and Budwiser in Texas POQ should go for sushi and Kobe beef (Inpex) or another specialty eaten with chopsticks.

Instead POQ plans to do more marketing in the USA. To sell our FOG cheaply to Sheffield & Friends ? Who will keep it or resell it more expensive to a major or an Asian O&G company? The Sheffield have often bought assets for about 1 billion $ (this is the money some writers on the LSE board would like to see for their FOG shares) before they sold Pioneer for 60 billion $ to the major Exxon.

Don`t you think that the FOG share price will crash again during a whole year of FOG inactivity, when FOG is watching their 0 % share when the 4 wells are drilled, completed , fracked and tested by TBN?

"For the next drilling phase of the Pilot, which involves the drilling and stimulation of the remaining four wells, Falcon has elected to reduce its participating interest (“PI”) from 5% to 0%."

Who said this: you always can buy FOG shares cheaper in the future,

LOL I think during this year of inactivity we all will have a chance, Mr BS included, to buy FOG cheaper again.

Tamboran, Falcon JV Plan Beetaloo Development Area of Up to 4.5MM Acres

A joint venture in the Beetalo Basin between Tamboran Resources Corp. and Falcon Oil & Gas could expand a strategic development spanning 4.52 million acres, Falcon said.

Hart Energy Staff

Fri, 01/24/2025 - 12:11 PM

IF the Beetaloo works out and 5,6,7 drilling rigs drill every month wells which are fracked factory like and if you could manage that the Beetaloo produces with a plateau production of perhaps 2 BCF/d (for LNG export you need high numbers) then the whole Beetaloo could have a value of perhaps 30 billion US$ (using for comparison the take over price of Pioneer when sold to the major Exxon). And then the 1$/FOG share is very cheap.

Boom or Bust.

The results, specifically the production rates from Shenandoah South 2H & 4H after hydraulic stimulation with the 80,000 HP Liberty frac pumps from the US Secretary of Energy, are going to be the final tipping point for the Beetaloo Basin and FOG.

After about 50 years of exploration history, after CRA Exploration, FOG, Petro Hunter, Sweetpea, Hess, Sasol, Santos, Origin, TBN, EEG studied the shales there, shot 2D & 3D seismic, drilled Kalala S1, Beetaloo W1, Amungee NW-1H, Amungee NW-2, Amungee NW-3, Amungee 2H, Amungee 3H, Carpentaria-1, Carpentaria-2H, Carpentaria-3H, Shenandoah South 1H, the end of the possible current learning curve is reached.

After Shenandoah South 2H, (3H), and 4H are drilled with the best available technology and hydraulically fractured with the best available technology, this marks the end of the current possible learning curve. Thus, the welltesting production rates from Shenandoah 2H and Shenandoah 4H are the final tipping point for a long time.

Would you like some examples? Poland saw a gold rush. All possible shale gas concessions were covered by oil companies. Poland brought brand new drilling rigs with the best available technology to Poland and drilled horizontal wells. Brand new frac units were brought from Texas to Poland. Unfortunately, the test production rates were disappointing, and since then, shale gas is dead in Poland.

Exxon drilled with FOG in Hungary. Halliburton transported their biggest frac pump to Hungary. The test rates disappointed, and since then, the Mako project has been dead.

We can expect that WHEN Shenandoah South 2H and 4H do not deliver commercial shale gas production rates, the Beetaloo shale gas will be considered dead for a long time. It is not necessary that both wells deliver. TBN is in the comfortable situation of operating two wells. So they can practice and potentially "screw up" one well, but they must deliver at least with the second well.

In the case that both wells do not deliver commercial gas production rates, there is no need to drill the other 4 wells, and nobody will bring in the 5 drilling rigs to create the second successful shale gas basin outside of North America after Vaca Muerta.

In the case we see a commercial production rate from Shenandoah SH2 respectively S4H the whole Beetaloo including FOG will definitively boom.

Reducing the FOG percentage for Shenandoah S2H and S4H can make sense. But reducing the share to zero for the next 4 wells makes no sense, Mr. POQ.

After the results of S2H and S4H, the Beetaloo will be considered dead anyway, or FOG shareholders will lose money because the Beetaloo booms (because we do not participate the important early cash flow from the 4 wells with zero FOG participation).

For a successfull production case. Losing ~1% of one of the biggest shale gas assets worldwide is not small. Relative % perhaps small. But the loss of absolute dollars for FOG share holders could be big with thi

I think Mr POQ needs a gas pumper training. Not the GasJacks but this here:

Big as all hell and half of Texas!

~150tcf or >25bnboe of net recoverable prospective resources…

….that’s US$1.75 trillion of potential resource.

A$3 trillion!

IMHO Mr POQ is playing uneccessary games. And this time his timing is completely wrong. WHY do you give away everything for all coming 4 wells???? Sorry I really do not understand this strategy.

1.

As a joint venture partner you should not go to 0%. OK, I do not know the contract but it could mean that with 0% you get 0 data from this block. Information and data which could be very important for future decisions.

2.

FOG and we as shareholderes lose a lot of money and value.

From 22% percent to 5 % was already painful but from 5 to 0 % is insane. It could make sense when you do not to any public relation and marketing for the company which keeps the share price down because the potential buyers do not know FOG. But when you get free GLOBAL public relation and marketing (https://www.worldenergydata.org/trumps-new-energy-tsar-linked-to-fracking-in-australias-beetaloo-basin/ ) than the share price of FOG will go up which would make it much easier to collect money for keeping 5% or better 22%.

From HC (TBN), Fitz65:

Wouldn’t take much to see $50 at this rate => 40c. Trading in the 30s seems to be a reasonable target by Easter.

A$1bn market cap isn’t a big ask for a highly experienced, strongly backed near term producer with gov support sitting on one of the largest undeveloped gas basins in the world on the eve of an energy crisis.

”Tamboran has the potential to become one of the largest independent gas producers globally, leveraging the tightening supply in the Australian gas market and strong pricing dynamics in Asian LNG markets.

TBN’s assets have huge gas potential (~150tcf or >25bnboe of net recoverable prospective resources) in one of the most promising shale gas basins globally, with characteristics that match the best shale gas wells in the US.

By 2030, from only Phase 1 and 2 plateau production, TBN’s gross production will be 8% of Australia’s current natural gas production.

Led by an experienced management team with US shale expertise, the company is well-equipped to deliver on its strategy. We have a risked NAV of US$66/sh or A$0.48/sh providing ~3.4x upside to the current share price.

Valuation: ~240% upside to risked NAV of US$66/sh or A$0.48/sh

We continue to see the majority of TBN’s value in the development of Phase 1 and 2 which on an unrisked basis has a NAV of US$130/sh or A$0.96/sh.

However, we believe that there is substantial upside from Phase 3 as well as development of TBN’s other licences.

Net to TBN Phase 1 should generate >US$30mm in EBITDA at plateau and Phase 2 ~US$600mm by 2029.

At an NPV of US$0.25/mcf, the current share price is discounting only 300bcf of net resource.”

Hannam, November 2024

One kleenex is not enough!

https://www.worldenergydata.org/trumps-new-energy-tsar-linked-to-fracking-in-australias-beetaloo-basin/

"For the next drilling phase of the Pilot, which involves the drilling and stimulation of the remaining four wells, Falcon has elected to reduce its participating interest (“PI”) from 5% to 0%."

Hibernation. This is a typical POQ.

I am wondering that a proactive guy like BS gives his thumb up for sleeping.

ExxonMobil paid

- 40 billion $ for the shale gas company XTO and

- 60 billion $ for the shale gas company Pioneer from the Sheffields.

TBN prepares mid- and downstream concepts to sell Beetaloo gas as LNG for Asian markets or as electricity for energy hungry AI data centers.

I think it is the job and duty of Mr. POQ to show presentations about the potential multi billion $ value of FOG . He shall become as proactive as TBN and EEG. At least he promised to do more PR for FOG. Because this is the way to create a multi bidder environment for turning FOG into billion $ cash.

2025 and waiting for the execution of the planned Beetaloo project

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thtEafv2AXk