Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
was up 50% on Friday as well
he surprise 1mn-plus barrels of oil per day production cuts from Saudi Arabia and other members of the Opec+ group have come at an opportune time for Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG:277p). The spot price of Brent Crude rose 5 per cent to $84 per barrel on the news, extending the benchmark’s rally to 20 per cent since hitting a 15-month low last month. Analysts expect even higher prices still as the reopening of China’s economy fuels demand – the International Energy Agency predicts that it will help drive up global oil demand by 3.2mn barrels per day by the fourth quarter of 2023.
At the end of last week, the UK North Sea-focused upstream oil and gas company revealed that it is closing in on a farm-out of its Greater Buchan Area (GBA) project, a huge resource holding 172mn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of discovered P50 recoverable resources (net to Jersey). The company has agreed heads of terms for a farm-out of a material interest in its GBA licences with a “significant UK North Sea operator” and is “working towards finalising a fully termed agreement in the near future”.
Analyst Daniel Slater of brokerage Zeus Capital says that securing a farm-out partner will provide important funding, adds significant technical endorsement and highlights the attractiveness of further development of the Buchan reservoir. Importantly, Jersey is in a strong negotiating position, holding estimated net cash of around £6mn. The GBA fields account for 78 per cent ($295mn, or 668p per share) of Slater’s risked net asset value (NAV) estimate of $378mn (856p), hence why Jersey’s share price has surged 81 per cent since the announcement.
Analyst Jonathan Wright at FinnCap has a risked valuation of $195mn on Buchan (500p per share), accounting for 75 per cent of his group risked NAV of $258mn (660p). This is based on a long-term Brent Crude price of $70 per barrel and embedding a 30 per cent commercial chance of success for the project. Wright’s unrisked valuation of Buchan is more than three times higher at $651mn (1,666p), highlighting the scale of the potential share price upside in the event of the GBA project being commercialised. Indeed, I can see the share price of the £90mn market capitalisation company more than doubling if a major farm-out deal is secured.
Trading well above the 195p and 230p levels of my last two buy calls (‘Primed to hit pay dirt’, 28 April 2022 and ‘Poised to hit pay dirt’, 22 September 2022), the shares continue to rate a buy.
So this week we will see either of :
1) A positive announcement
2) A negative announcement
3) A we'll get back to you later announcement
The longer this goes on the more I expect Option 3
If not this week, I guess it will be the events of this week that will be the trigger for the announcement. Presumably they are looking for something (could be positive or negative) from the budget and (I don't know if this is common) have agreement A and Agreement B lined up and the budget will determine which is signed. They still have over 2 weeks after that to announce something. From the tone of the previous RNS they felt at the time that they might be almost ready to pronounce but caution got the better of them. This post is purely based on what I have read on here and trying to make sense of what has happened following thevery upbeat RNS in November.
Simon Thompsons Bargains Shares 2023.
What's he failed at? I accept he's not charismatic but maybe we need a little less charisma and more focus as we have had too much charisma and no substance over the last few years Teresa excepted - of course. Rishi has been in a couple of months now and the party is getting restless again Liz is a great asset to Labour. and so should probs shut up.
I'm going to assume a successful outcome but then look at CHAR's experience in Morocco. So I would expect SP to double then bob along at that value until the Project is signed off. 16p then on Valentines Day.
Imagine a game of football where the fans went mad (either positively or negatively) every time a ball was kicked instead of saving it for when a goal was scored (for or against) Got that picture in your mind? Well now imagine every oil company bulletin board.
This history of Morocco is a bit uneven. Lots of detail til 2000 then pretty much The End.
No fund raise today either but it wouldn't be a surprise if it were coming.
Not me mate. I have not sold any of my Chaz tickets.
I'm guessing (and hoping) that most of the comment on this board is just the noise of people who are frustrated that they are not making a fast buck quickly enough. I've not seen any serious comment that the project is not progressing at an acceptable / reasonable speed. However there must be risks to this project or the price would be significantly higher than it is. I guess not getting the finance (low), not managing to find a farm out partner (medium) Morrocco doing something unexpected (Medium), Further dilutory fund raising (High based on Chariots past). What other risks do people see and do you agree with my assessments of the risks identified.
Isn't support just a made up concept and the share price will just do as it does.
I always worry that people who say stuff like 'will rise by 211% ) doin't really understand numbers. 211% is a ridiculous prediction. What on earth is wrong with 'over 200%'. Either that or its's written by a bot.
He goes on to talk about San Leon and Trinity. No further mention of CHAR.
Update - I sold half my holding in March at 3.74 and bought Parkmead. Both have gone down in this period but Parkmead not so much. So I have sold 80% of my Parkmead and rebought my original MATD stake. So now I have both 1500 share in Parkmead for nothing and averaged down my MATD to 4.03 from 5.34. Now of course this is only any good if MATD takes off but if we just get producing in 2022 then that is a major step forward and we can look forward to the other stuff next year. Or not of course!
I think what has happened here is that our expectations have not been managed very well. We were hoping for a busy successful year and that 2022 would be the year that we hit paydirt. I guess paydirt may still happen but as a phut! rather than a bang. My concern here has always been the the Chinese have no need to co-operate with us and that if they don't ultimately we can be picked up for a pittance and the pay dirt goes to them. I sold half my shares at 4p and put them in Parkmead which has also fallen since then but by not so much so I am in "profit" on that deal but the key decisions are whether to and more importantly when to get back in here so as not to miss the boat. If indeed there is a boat. By no means an expert but this suggests that they should have an income stream soon which may avoid another fund raise but that the big bucks may not be till next year - if at all.
They have at least two institutions prepared to lend them $500m so they say. So why keep tapping the market. I bet they go at least one more time before this jumps again. Isn't SHC a lady? I am sure she referred to her husband at some point.
Even so whatever the new estimate is it would have been 26% higher without the two placings and 14% higher without the most recent one. They are drip robbing us!
Does anyone think there will be any more placings as the last one at least seemed gratuitous. I am sure you are all affected similarly but for every 100k shares held the brokers (conservative) estimate of 51p per share will now be around 44p per share. That costs about £7k per 100k shares. . Add that to the placing in December (where the broker's forecast would have been 60p per share) then that cost £9k per 100k shares. So that's £16k per 100k shares out of our pockets and into the pockets of the board's cronies.