Member Info for Okehurst1

Gut feel too if my head … 2 of the Kelso investors has used their spread betting account to hold their Kelso shares, if I recall IG / other are in there as well last time I looked ?

Tax free gains ? Must be confidant of their actions - whatever their plans are - will drive up the share price

With no news on Boots (rumour ) or whale deals to be meaningful as yet to add £1B revenue , I wonder if Kelso have started to add THG shares?
They can pick their time to announce a TR1 within reason?
Another £150k each off their investor list at these prices may look cheap to them?

Is their target is to Bid for Nutrition only and see their equity investment increase ?Its a win win

We know what they told the market a few weeks ago.

‘In particular, Kelso believes that the Nutrition business, which incorporates the MyProtein and MyVegan brands, could alone be worth in excess of the entire current market capitalisation of THG. This is evidenced by the valuations of deals in that particular sector in the last few years, caused in part by the shift in consumption away from chocolate and sugar to health and nutrition, a trend which we believe will continue’

Hosia, good post , agree

Ingenuity grew 7% last year !! That’s not profit that revenue, is that £14M ?

We have binned Ingenuity Commerce growth - it’s didn’t work out

Personal opinion, our current balance sheet will deter whales signing up, it’s a big commitment, we need to sort out the financing of Ingenuity SaaS

As Steve says, it’s all about FCF

Hosia, it’s a punt though? You have seen broker ranges, we don’t have the cash other than use debt ? The £80M is on going …

We increase debt and rating agencies hit our suppliers insurance, the Bond comes up for renewal and we struggle to refinance ?
We are paying a whopping £60M a year interest now

Worst case according to brokers we made £60M last year less rent we didn’t even cover interest payments never mind Capex - this is intangible capex, it’s fresh air stuff

These are THG numbers not mine

Moody, guess if the price is right ?And he can repay debt / fund ingenuity SaaS ?

What does he want more ?

Do agree with you it’s our prized asset

Moulding is not going to roll over ? He’s got a big shout (stake)

Guess he has to make the call does he take the $$ for Nutrition to punt a chunk into Ingenuity? Once Nutrition goes into play it will be difficult to reverse
No two ways about it we don’t have the cash to invest in the planned SaaS (£80M) as it stands today, not without increasing debt.

May be wrong but think Kelso will be outbid in the end but helpful for us PI’s that they will fire the first shot

It’s how it works

1 on 1 , the new CFO is engaging which is good

The broker ask the questions the Company guides
Hence you get the ranges

Anyone can contact one of the brokers

Become a client, trade via them , get their view or pay for their report

On solid

On AIM it’s inclusive of the basic annual NOMAD fee, £60k p/a

THG will pay an annual fee to their advisor which will include posting RNS’s
The THG company lawyers will review the RNS as well

It’s actually not a big relative cost - hope this helps

…. Would make a great headline though

It’s common knowledge in the City - believe or not

What we don’t know … how many of the 25 investors in Kelso have bought shares independently?

John was our head of IR for II’s , he knows them all personally - it was only for 6 month period in 2022 post Zeus CEO role

Gamekeeper turned poacher, as I say he’s acting as conduit

Canary
Reckon they will ‘ join ‘ other disenfranchised investors and act as a conduit to the BoD

Kelso buying for £1.5B is a self financing deal, cash and paper - plenty of FCF to service debt £750M split 50:50
Personally I would like paper in a pure My Protein play if that happened, gut feel they will be out bid for cash though by Trade

The BoD couldn’t hide a Bid from Kelso, reckon Kelso will tell us they approached THG

Today was a sampler from them - they will go over Mouldings head direct to market for whatever information they wish to release
RNS worthy ( Bid ) Linked in trade news

Thanks for sharing Plutus

If anything it demonstrates Kelso are on their ‘ A Game ‘ with Nutrition, have done their research and their target is a bid / put Nutrition into play

The scope to sell My Protein products globally is huge, we have the brand, manufacturing facilities and THG are a dominant player in the Commodity Whey market

£1.5B Bid would be 15X current EBITA, that would start the bidding process off but could we enjoy a higher rating front a Trade purchaser
Top end 3 to 4X Rev ? Maybe. ?

Hi Ryan

Personally I would just look at the GMV providers margins it’s 1% EBITA at best
Shopify is less than that - posted last week CEO explaining margin
Ocado in same boat
Go with the market rate rather than what we can save a client so to speak

Ingenuity Commerce hasn’t worked, it’s tough to beat Shopify on their margin / offering

Hosting web sites / API stuff is not proprietary SaaS and it’s a competitive market, the new Autostore partnership looks interesting, it will be £ARR style valuation and won’t require heavy capex, I quite like it but it will take years to generate revenue and it doesn’t help fill the 85% of empty space in our Warehouses

Fully agree Moulding is tricky but he’s pragmatic as most entrepreneurs are and especially at his level

He will find a way.

As time progress’s am tipping into Kelso becoming a stalking horse, they bid for nutrition cash / paper and Trade outbids them

Kelso can say job done - worst case for them -make a few quid and they build a reputation and target something else

Ste , good debate

Let’s be fair Moulding is a top entrepreneur and risk taker ,he’s built a £2B business generating £160M of cash and he’s created 8000 jobs in the process ,he deserves respect for that - ok he’s used other peoples money but that’s what a good entrepreneur does , The City , SoftBank etc

He has his vision for Ingenuity Commerce and that one never worked, it’s the way it goes and I agree he’s not public company CEO material but he used the cash he raised to get us to the £2B /£160M cash today

Can’t see a catalyst for a plunge from here

New CFO looks decent, The Chair whilst non vocal is clearing out the dead weight slowly but sure, Golden share , index funds with full listing and Moulding can’t Bath our £80M a year on a punt without firm contracts so we repay debt / invest in core, generate serious cash or have an equity event

What’s not to like ? It’s win win