Member Info for Okehurst1

Good post Kando, echos my thoughts.
I think MM is a talented entrepreneur and has had an amazing career - as an entrepreneur

Let’s see how Q1 update goes but the feedback from the II’s regarding the CFO is positive - ‘ under promise over deliver ‘ is his mantra

We will now at this point (Q1 update )know the performance of Ingenuity, the CFO is positive there is a business there so let’s see.

I think the Boots deal fell over end of January due to Boots owners in the USA being concerned about THG balance sheet being stretched and it was a big commitment on there part, think we can understand that point and as such THG Ingenuity has pivoted - I like the pivot

Of course Ingenuity needs serious capital - look at Ocado they are spending £1.5B over 5 years - but again I have confidence in the BoD /CFO to come up with a solution however that my look, I wouldn’t bet against MM

As confident as ever in THG

No prob Ste

Still there under ‘THG part 18 ‘for anyone who subscribes
Each alert/post they produce is numbered

Smartpee, looks like,

GOAT are leveraging their position in India / knowing that market to produce leads for THG to close the sale

Auto store focus on the Robots / THG then drive the API integration for the end user to AutoStore software

It’s a smart move by THG to monetise the skill base they have built up over the years, having built a proven £2B D2C model they have gravitas within the market place and the capex is marginal with upfront payments

The still have to figure out how to utilise the £17B of available GMV within their own fully operated distribution units but we can guess they are fully focused on this task in hand

Golden agree with your gist

Do you think this is Autostore /THG partnership - in affect - partnering with GOAT to unlock Indian distribution units to be robotic

So it’s consultancy / low capex / high margin / low revenue , pure SaaS so to speak

A/S
Not a trader so technicals not my thing but appreciate it’s a decent marker of probability

If the 50 day crosses the 200 day below is that a Golden Cross?
Has that happened before with THG ?

Is this JV utilising Indian distribution centres to enjoy the Autostore / Ingenuity tie up that was recently announced ?PAYC ?

That would make sense ?

Personally like this JV model, we use / offer our expertise / manage the API’s/ min capex and we know from Autostore the JV collects 30% upfront

Any views on what Ingenuity will report gross revenue wise ?

My shout/ guess based on the sector mainly Ocado/ Shopify and being generous is £40M to £60M (2%to 3%)from the Core business’s, maybe £5M to £2M from 3rd party, so top end £45M to £65M less administrative costs

Ingenuity pay the £20M rent from above less staff, Autostore costs

Capex separate

As a result

Nutrition 12% plus EBITA
Beauty. 5%.

Any opinions on above ?

Full interview today

https://youtu.be/ZSN4qR0cM00

Dr - Doom - Roubini just been on Bloomberg saying
Credit Suisse may be
‘ too big to be saved ‘ and the Cantons don’t have enough liquidity to bail it out ?

https://youtu.be/bP-6P2B5HCM

OSG makes sense

MM’s hoovering up covering an order from a broker at maximum price then we see large single line purchase as its fulfilled

Think we can guess it’s II’s at this level, could well be activists ?

Worth flicking through 1 pencils posts

The poster kindly updates monthly with a link to the data and a running total going back monthly 12 months

140M shares on average in Feb 2023

1 pencil listed the other week

10% total including under .5% if I remember correctly

Not material

Qube reduced to .59%

GLG up .02% to .51%

Reckon these guys are playing 3:1 long short or similar style in house trading ratio

Have to wonder why they bother ? Feel like it’s games whilst they increase longs ?

The market has looked past the Whale /Boots deal in terms of contribution to earnings
we can see this off the raft of brokers targets for 2023 that are on the THG web site

There is a reasonable chance we will report FCF + Q1 2023, the quantum depends have we completed the property disposals but £25M minimum looks possible via trading

Then we get update / timeline on Premium listing

Ditto individual accounts for each division with Nutrition / Beauty paying for Ingenuity services

Possibly update on their plans for USA listings ?

Lots to look forward to and in the meantime the activists circle waiting to see the above

THG fell 90% in real time market to market 2022
we’ve done our repricing ?

Klarna other private tech still got to through more pain ?

Maybe some delayed sales but looks like it was fishing exercise by MM’s to collect what they could on the cheap 2:1 buy to sell - know it’s not perfect science but it’s a decent indicator

Some one accumulating

Been hearing Casanova been on the offer recently

Could be a mixture of activists & II’s having a nibble, picking up those on the Bid

Something going on

Someone on the offer, picking up whatever that goes on the Bid