Member Info for Okehurst1

Thanks Ste

Remember when WPP said they were going to replicate Ingenuity?

Of interest

Didn’t we just JV with GOAT in India ?

https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/wpp-snaps-influencer-marketing-agency-goat/1817307?utm_source=website&utm_medium=social

Someone’s accumulating think that’s a given

If we are in play of sorts … no idea how we have enough free float for Shorts and Index funds on a premium listing and / if a USA heavy weight takes a big chunk of the available shares now

TR1 within a week?

If it is Sparta the shorts are going to be under big pressure to consider their position
a few million shares moves this 10%

It’s timing Blinky , 20 odd weeks and it’s gone
and we have premium listing

Sparta / whoever have made the 2nd move - Kelso first of course and we don’t know how many shares do the investors in Kelso own privately

Who knows if another USA player joins the show ?

Sparta TR1 next week or so and that will spook the Shorts, throw in premium listing announcement and it’s going to get interesting for us Longs

You could be right S/B

That may spook Sparta to accumulating their stake as fast as possible but they time it when to breach 2.99%

They sit below then hit it hard and max out the regulatory timing of the TR1 whilst the accumulate

They are going to require some volume to get something meaningful

The 2.99% is key

Do they hit that and do they push on straight away ?

How do Kelso investors play it knowing someone is building ?
Not too sure on that one, the investors have the clout to buy privately/ collectively and stay under the radar

We have Easter and not long after the anticipated RNS update so timescale tight to accumulate as we know 2M shares can move this 5% in a blink of an eye and Sparta are going to want skin in the game

Someone is building a stake here

Reckon we have deduce it’s Sparta

Maybe they run up to 2.99% then time when to take the brakes off the car and grab as much as they can before they have to TR1

May take a week or so for us to see this play fully out with the TR1

Might be a drop as MM’s pick up cheaper stock for the buyer(s) but someone is accumulating, am punting we go blue sometime today - let’s see how that ages

With £2B of imbedded tax losses due to acquisitions/ capex etc

THG has £560M of net cash tax losses within the group

The market hasn’t woken up to this as yet but we can guess Sparta have built this into their modelling

With a market cap of £840M add debt post property disposal, we are on around £1B enterprise value , deduct the tax losses and our enterprise value drops to just £480M

Spin off Ingenuity for funding reasons and the core business could be generating
£160M EBITA , that’s a 3X value, it’s so cheap

We can see why Sparta and other USA financial players are circling if Betaville are correct

My guess is we could see a Sparta TR1 within a week if we get more of the same trading patterns in the share the next few days a TR1 would put the Shorts in a tricky situation

Could we say the communication improved just after Kelso popped up?

The main thing for us PI’s its now more or less on 60p Offer for volume from 51p yesterday morning

MM’s look like they are accumulating to fill an order from a clients broker , if it is Sparta/ whoever and they breach the 3% we will soon find out later this week early next maybe

Whoever it is they know how to build a position and look like they are accumulating to a playbook, look at the Offer to Bid volume yet we still jump 20% in 24hrs, something is going on - whoever it is this they have done this before

Personally I don’t think the GS is what’s moving the price it’s the above

Suggest lines in the sand stuff today

Sparta vs II Shorts

How many Shorts bottle it ?

https://youtu.be/1VzL7Oph61k

This is taster for premium listing news

You can see why Sparta / Kelso have top of their wish list

IF …. Betaville latest is correct we have a number of USA boys looking at THG

Rules of the game are changing with heavy weight Long VC’s vs Short II’s

Fun times coming for us Longs, count down to the GS expiring

Kando, they will have options within their packages, more tax efficient long term although they will have a tax charge at the front end

Canary, agree on the knockout valuation, reckon if we are 50p and the Bid was £2 that will test the majority shareholders

50.01% is the minimum to take control, from there they would use a scheme of arrangement.

Canary

MM is not the majority shareholder he is the largest shareholder

If a serious Bid comes in for THG as a whole let’s call it £3B (£2plus )and we are still 50p it’s going to test the resolve of the majority shareholders who make up 75% of the vote

Articulate post Kando, can’t argue with any of your points below, well laid out

Still feel MM may have one more card to play and that’s around Ingenuity financing

The new CFO looks decent and has purposely changed the direction away from
over promising

If we don’t get a decent Q1 update then the pressure mounts, personally I think the FCF will surprise to the upside, premium listing confirmed as well as dual listings.