Member Info for Okehurst1

‘ Big Al you were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off at AACR today ‘

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_PX1cVuaVA

No toxicity

I’ve been a holder for 3 years ,thick and thin and what a journey it’s been
Posters have come and gone like The Mole catcher, Merchant Banker, too many to mention
The quality of the ( science ) posts / shared data on the BB nowadays is very good

As regards an exit offer for Avacta, this will come out of nowhere and if your not holding you miss the opportunity - you take your chances trading, no issues with that btw but suggest we are entering the end game for Avacta

£6B m/cap minimum looks well achievable and potentially life changing money for many of us PI’s (£24 ish )

GLA

FT - 45 mins

‘Merck has agreed to buy Prometheus Biosciences for $10.8bn as the US drugmaker bolsters it pipeline ahead of the possible loss of exclusivity over its best-selling cancer drug later this decade.

The all-cash transaction for Prometheus — a San Diego-based biotech focusing on diseases caused by abnormal activity of the body’s immune system — is the latest sign of a rebound in mergers and acquisitions in the sector following a dip in activity last year.

Prometheus is developing a monoclonal antibody treatment for ulcerative colitis, a type of inflammatory bowel disease. It announced positive trial results for its lead drug candidate targeting the disease from a mid-stage trial in December and is developing several other therapies using machine learning to identify drug targets.

Merck said the deal would strengthen the company’s position in the fast-growing field of immunology, where there is significant unmet patient need.

“This transaction adds diversity to our overall portfolio and is an important building block as we strengthen the sustainable innovation engine that will drive our growth well into the next decade,” said Robert Davis, Merck’s chair and chief executive.

Merck has agreed to pay $200 per share for Prometheus, a 75 per cent premium to Friday’s closing price for the company’s shares, which are listed on the Nasdaq.

Merck has been on the hunt for acquisitions over the past year as it seeks to diversify its pipeline ahead of the potential loss of exclusivity on its blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda. Key patents related to that drug, which generated almost $21bn in revenues in 2022, are due to expire towards the end of the decade enabling rivals to launch similar products.

The US drugmaker was reportedly in talks with oncology-focused Seagen about a potential deal last year but did not move forward with a transaction. In March Pfizer swooped on Seagen, announcing a deal for a total enterprise value of $43bn, which was the largest pharmaceutical transaction announced since AbbVie agreed to buy Allergan in 2019.

Under the terms of the transaction Merck is acquiring Prometheus through a subsidiary. The deal, which was first reported by the Wall Street Journal, is subject to approval from Prometheus shareholders and regulators. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2023’

https://on.ft.com/3mDitH8

Whilst we get ready for the barrage of bad news from the London press - The Mail
kicking off round 1

The report below was published a few years ago, gist being , 550 quoted companies studied over 25 years, 500 days before a big positive news spin and 500 days after same, ditto companies with negative front page headlines

Includes statistics / data to back up their findings

Companies that had a positive front page story had out performed the market up to 40% on average for 500 days before the positive news flow in magazines they then underperformed by same over the next 500 days after the news spin

The opposite effect and percentages for the companies that had negative news on front pages, over 500 days post negative front page stories their share price improved 40% on average

Contrarian view … bad news on the front page is a better indicator you buy at this point than buying when the news story is highly positive, so the data says

THG already up 40% YTD, let’s hope we get a load more negative stories off the press / magazines, make even more money - only reason I buy shares

file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/24/04/8375DD66-1F3D-46AB-9420-2AE130E57334/Are%20Cover%20Stories%20Effective%20Contrarian%20Indicators%3F.pdf

Black Rock sold a good chunk at a top price and have been close to MM / Iain Mc

Bought back last week adding 3M shares and taking themselves to 16M total today

Bit of positioning going on

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dd2a0ad6-dafc-11ed-89ad-19e3cfc05db4?shareToken=0fe354c72264a4f94ce261b95bfc9f35

‘BlackRock was searching for “transformational” opportunities in the wake of the turmoil, Fink said.

Now over 16M shares in THG after their recent purchase, lining themselves up to be a Kingmaker

Suggest our fellow brother Steve from the diocese of Hull nailed it yesterday

Gist being, THG falls Tuesday because the BoD are not listening then the activists load up on the cheap and we move back up ,if the BoD announce even just part of what we think they will and we go up

Activists / Golden Share gone in a few months / premium listing, 2022 results are already known and we are still up 40% YTD, all about the future on Tuesday

Hi Dp

Take Marshall our biggest Short they are 17th in size on the register for size - although it’s negative - they are classified / identified as Short and reported as negative 19,359,317 shares

In affect when they ‘ buy shares’ this is listed, take recently they bought 129,733 and this was taken off their Short to total the above outstanding

It’s difficult to identify who is lending to the Shorts

Hope this helps

Even 1 X sales for the Core is £1.35 (£2B) and that’s dirt cheap
even if the market values Ingenuity at £zero

Does highlight THG secure independent finance for Ingenuity we have a relatively decent rerate

Nb it’s been hard to out ramp our latest convert today …. Steve

Welcome brother Steve

50% plus 1 at EGM for control of the BoD - it’s on the day stuff

We have II Shorts vs Activists

Doubt we would be up 40% YTD without the latter buying in
Place your bet on whichever side you think will win

Hi Licker

Suggest 50.1% is the benchmark ,control of the BoD sets the direction of THG with the Golden Share expiring in 16 weeks or so

Looking at the share register we may be close to 10% of the total equity now being in the hands of new owners over the last 5 weeks
Any weakness in the share price next week and there is a fair chance that will increase

MM is then exposed to a coup to take control of the BoD at an EGM, 50% plus 1 vote on the day, I would say it’s very doubtful MM would survive such a vote

Personally I don’t think it will get to that point and the BoD will pivot towards increasing the share price via Premium Listing / overseas listing and looking at alternative funding for Ingenuity rather use the FCF from the core operations

It’s a win win for us long PI’s and why we are 40% up YTD

The activists well onto the tax losses, they want to see where they sit ?

Hopefully we will see next week

‘2. We urge THG to continue to review strategic options, alongside focussing on cash generation, to ensure underlying value is realised in a practicable timeframe. Initially, for the market to better understand the value potential of THG, it is important that they provide the appropriate detailed segmental analysis, specifically including divisional contribution/profitability, alongside a divisional summary of any tax losses. It is Kelso's view that there is a clear path to enhancing shareholder value through more financial visibility, which we hope is detailed in the pending results, by highlighting the underlying value based on the "sum of the parts". We note that Liberum, an independent broker, in their research note published in February 2023, estimated the "sum of the parts" to be 221 pence per share (actual price target was 55p) but highlighted that this valuation is only relevant if appropriate actions are taken by management and the board, a comment with which we agree’

Agree Moody

Licker,
That’s not Sparta’s MO, they buy in and push for changes

No need to raise £560M to pay off the bond or £3B to buy out shareholders or £Billions to fund Ingenuity

Get the BoD focused on shareholder value, raise money for an independent Ingenuity
separate quote for Beauty, get 4X plus return on your capital
We all know this is worth £2 plus a share and much more , everyone wins

Suggest you have to study the most recent full shareholder register Pearls, grab yourself a full copy

Someone bought 6% last month in one vehicle
and USA broker added a big chunk on top
Put aside Black Rock and other entities adding

The activists are in position and poised ,quite possibly sitting at 10% plus
no idea what their target position is but it’s some commitment the last few weeks

For what’s it’s worth, I don’t PE will Bid for THG, if all else fails
take control of the BoD, the stakes getting built here are worth seats.

Suggest the current BoD are listening, we know II shareholders & the BoD entered a form of corporate counselling H2 last year, I feel confidant the market will get what it wants, which is fundamentally a higher share price and next week we will see the timeline starting that process

To recap, been some big movements on the share register

76,614,935 …. Adding to one vehicle , that’s stake building territory all done over a few weeks - they have 79,991,333 in total

Charles Schwab adding 16,557,383 - last few weeks

Plus Millions added via retail platforms

Just on Moulding, he’s got 12.9% plus the 2.94%, that’s it as it stands today with voting rights - he can convert but there is tax charge

Helicopter view , make a call on Qatar -who now have less than the new big shareholders who added 76M -and how they would they go but looking at the register he’s got a problem if we got into EGM territory, not saying that will happen but there are heavy hitters lining up here.