Member Info for Okehurst1

USA brokers again taking everything, they need our stock, Jed get yourself live Bloomberg Terminal you can see the build up, otherwise you ain’t making a dime here

We are in play, should hit the £1 on the offer by COP Friday /Monday

Look at it another way

Use them to get info you might not see/ engage with them to explain why they are correct?If think your on the right hand side of the trade you make big money when you call it

You can’t make the $ baggers without them, I am only here to make money, no other reason

They are going to burn these next few weeks, we should see YTD a well past 100% quite soon

You need to study the register and look at the structures of the II’s and especially the funds with LP’s funding them - they can’t roll they need cash

MM can’t muster more than 40%

Apollo have to pay more to the 60%

It may well be £1.50 is the opening gambit but they will need to go with a £2 plus to pull this off

It’s no good MM/ Apollo get say 50%, nowt in it for Apollo, they need control with MM

They want a cheap ride off the 60%, Sparta /Kelso with the II’s not rolling will get us the £2 plus

You need to study the Bloomberg terminal and who owns what

Ask your broker for a daily report

We will get £2 here

The problem for MM/ Apollo is they can’t muster more than 40% of the register - and Balderton Capital won’t roll

MM/ employee fund / Sofina / Qatar boys and MM converts and pays the CGT
he doesn’t get past 40%

I can’t see Baldertons rolling, they are on a fixed time line to return Capital to their LP investors

The activists know this and have took positions accordingly

It’s gloves off now, MM loses he gets kicked off the BoD

Apollo will find the $$ we will get £2 or more

Apollo and Moulding don’t see us PI’s on their share registrar

Apollo are reaching out to THG II to get a percentage to roll with them, let’s call it £1.50 to us plebs and IF they could get a majority vote through an EGM , they are testing the water to see how cheap they can get in at

They will pay more just like they raised at Wood group - 5 times they increased

£2 minimum is were this goes to, we could see £2.25 to £2.50

We all know now Moulding had a plan and we were not part of it

THG encircled by USA PE, Bloomberg was the canary in the coal mine as USA brokers joined the party

70M Shorts need shares , USA PE needs them, the long suffering THG II’s are smart they never sold on Tuesday they actually added ,it was all retail taking a few pence off the table

Just sit back, don’t give them your shares on the cheap

Let the Shorts burn , enjoy the ride to £2 and beyond

Mentioned this one early March

Activists Bid to take control of the BoD, they only need 50% plus 1 vote

John Goold of Kelso is a savvy boy and had a stint at THG II relationships last year, he personally knows all the big investors in THG, he has ‘ read the room’

Sparta and others ‘ join ‘ , call an EGM with the intention of taking over the BoD, they sack the BoD or the threat of an EGM and our Chairman sacks MM if he can muster the votes, then unlock the value - you would turn off the £135M intangible capex overnight
spin out ingenuity, de- merge Beauty etc now the entities are in place

I had been wondering if the £1.50 low ball was going keep the activists happy and could we get to £2 ?

Gloves off now, us PI’s sit back, this could be £2.25 to £2.50 , Apollo are going to have to dig deeper

Shorts are going to be bailing now, the squeeze will be fun

THG are well in play

‘L’Oréal, the world’s biggest beauty company, despite higher prices and a rocky start in the key Chinese market due to the lingering effects of Covid restrictions.

The Paris-based group delivered €10.4bn in sales, delivering growth of 13 per cent year-on-year in the first three months of the year and easily beating expectations. All regions grew more than 15 per cent with the exception of North Asia — which was broadly flat as China emerged from its strict Zero Covid policies.

L’Oréal continued to increase prices, which had little impact on consumption, with higher pricing contributing 7.8 per cent to total sales, while volume increases accounted for 5.2 per cent.

Make-up sales also recovered, and is currently growing in the mid-teens, the company said.

The fastest growing division was its skin care division, where the company has invested heavily to develop brands with over a billion euros in revenues like CeraVe.’

Jeff
I was on a full bagger this week, we should get another bagger plus from here and then sell out and we are off to the next trade that has been driven down, it’s fun and we make loads off the shorts by trying to buy in close to the bottom

Tbh I need the Shorts so I can make money

If you are Short then thank you

We are talking intangible capex now - that’s what they confirmed, they actually said it’s not buildings

It will be 5% to 6% of annual revenue for next 5 years

So THG needs £675M of cash over next 5 years - it’s quite possible, look at Ocado who have been at this for 20 years they are dropping £1.6B over the next 5 years as an example in intangible capex

Point being, there is no way MM will raise that cash in the U.K. and last nights Insta video was the final 2 fingers to the City
USA PE will fund the £650M and take that bet ,Ingenuity could be worth serious
$$ 5 years out
Grow both Nutrition and Beauty , especially USA, it’s ripe over there looking at competitors margins, sell out / IPO separately in a few years when the market turns and grow Ingenuity who have long term contracts with both of the above

THG has just £140M of debt post disposals
£600M plus facilities in place the banking is in place
Generate 8%EBITA plus on the Core which will have no rent of note and no tax for first £2B profits

It’s a dream ticket for USA PE who can take a view and fund Ingenuity

No way after this weeks info / zero visibility from CFO/TGL at the Q&A that they are staying quoted

THG BoD have no intention to be on the public markets for premium listing hence no date
They can’t deliver below on the LSE - capital markets are now closed to MM, last night was his swan song to them , no one giving him P’s

USA PE, can look at below and take a view over 3 to 5 years , help fund

Starting to stack now that we can see the inter Co charges

USA PE prioritises My Protein

We now know MP pays 30% to Ingenuity to do everything but make Food
Gross has been as high as 60% but let’s drop that to 55%
MP has a whopping 25% gross
No rent / distribution/ marketing etc
You would expect though on a 30% fee

Get MP to 20% growth and a few years out it’s worth serious $

Sell on THG Beauty once net EBITA 8% plus - 6%

Fund Ingenuity ,push all your PE vested suitable companies to use
IPO 5 years time

Big $$$ to be made

Got looked over yesterday

‘International sales accounted for 57% (FY 2021: 58%) of total Group revenue with the US continuing to be an evident growth opportunity (+9.9%), following on from the successful integrations of US Beauty acquisitions in 2021, alongside the continued focus of the Nutrition business’

USA for My Protein looks a key area for the future, 9.9% growth and that’s before the latest came on line - can handle 550,000 orders a day via the robots if I remember correctly the linked in post from a THG manager

THG have 3 distribution centres covering the USA market

USA PE have a plan

Brother Steve, we need you to practise Self-flagellation when you get any opposite thoughts to being Long

It’s took us months to convert you from the dark side

Not that many Shorts have closed - small stuff

We had a PI selling spree yesterday, the smart II Long money let it fall and then picked up stock, they sat back first thing and then went again

Shorts still got to exit.

The big fun is yet to come for us Longs

Looks that way Licker

PI sold out yesterday, II loaded up on the back of …especially USA brokers

We are now up 70% plus YTD , we were 51p just 3 or 4 weeks ago

All the signs are there , something going on

Back in January having paid to access broker reports I just couldn’t get my head around ingenuity numbers/ FCF - I took a bit of flak for over sharing £numbers at the time, understand why btw

Tbh I still don’t see how THG can commercially justify investing £135M a year into Ingenuity for what is intangible SaaS ?
Put this into prospective it’s well in excess of 2000 plus full stack developers and change, it doesn’t make sense -and also state this will continue for 5 years and be FCF neutral in 2029

THG could turn this investment off tomorrow and save the cash and they admitted that yesterday on the conf call

Point being, the narrative suits an agenda to brow beat the market to accept a price for the planned buy out, I can’t see any other reason
The CFO wasn’t on the conf call and couldn’t be quizzed, ditto TGL

Once THG ho Private capex will get slashed is my view / or they raise independence funds for ingenuity and the Core business spews cash with no tax for the first £2B

It’s been a good run YTD, up 65% is an awesome return for us Longs and in what a 15 week period - what a bargain when we could top up at 40 odd pence just after Xmas we have to thank the Shorts for that opportunity

Following yesterdays results many of the points the Shorts point out can’t be argued against it’s fact - re margin/results - the only bright spot is debt has been reduced by £70M last 6 months or so as they increased FCF and on the reporting side we can see Ingenuity is now worth more than a £zero

As to the future of THG are we coming off the market ? It does look highly likely
and be it £1.50 to £2 it’s still a hefty return to where we sit

Risk / Reward today ?
25p plus downside to 75p to £1.25 upside

The news could come out the blue just like Mondays RNS and a bagger plus from here gets missed
£1.50 to £2 would be a 3 to 4 bagger for myself and I am staying risk on and riding this one, too much USA buying for me and non PI brokers active, something is going on