Member Info for Okehurst1

Licker ,

FT has put a valuation breakdown of £3.7B (£2.25 ish )

It’s now how much do Apollo and others want to pay above that figure for control ?

Looks like we are getting our £2 in front of it and we may get £2.50

Suggest Iain Mc loading up in March and the FT £3.7B it’s just a question of time we hit the £1 level

Will Apollo show their hand at £1.70 and push up 5 times total like in the Wood group this week ?

10p and we are up 100% in 4 weeks

Iain Mc buying shares up Belerion - not worth going there how does he get away with that

Black Stone , Iain Mc, Vanguard , Charles Schwab USA clients loading up , the signs are all there

The lender will firing out margin calls to Marshall this morning
They are now in the red (90p average )

FT is logical Steve

Money to made, they know it’s in play, the II’s rotate
they made $$ Shorting - the smarter ones are out already
now bring it back up and make Apollo pay up or others will take THG out

FT has named its price at £3.7B today

To take control we have to have a premium

There is no stock, same applies today

If MM’s arch enemy the FT has £2.25 who other than Wild Tiger -who is probably now at school btw- who would sell at 92p ?

Think about it …

Spot on Steve
Think the FT placing £3.7B has spooked the market

We must be getting close to the Shorts capitulating

The Lex column in the FT is very influential - it’s logical -
there is no love lost with them (FT) and MM so it has gravitas
when they come out at £2.25p

It was reported this week that THG had 10.1% of its shares out on loan

Shorts have a serious problem

Problem for the Shorts their downside from here could be 125% minimum

Upside for them looks like a zero

And they can’t get out as limited stock available

Looks that way SP

Reckon the PR teams from Sparta / Kelso will be funnelling articles/ comments to the
Sunday Times ditto Apollo

The funds are to buy THG shares though

Reaffirms the FT a valuation of £3.7B

We can see why we have other suitors in the wings waiting to pounce

THG is going private

FT has us as £3.7B today

Nothing in it for the new auto USA fulfilment centre opened last month that can handle 550,000 orders a day via the robots

I look at this way, Apollo are going to have to pay £2 to £2.50 to get control

Double bagger from here

You could argue there should be a premium for control of these assets / dispose of the property / sell the leases on the Hotels /Spa if possible

£2.50 fully values THG today

Suggest we calculate as below but add the actual debt not the Bond value
Debt has fallen £70M last 6 months as/if/when they dispose of the planned property sales then this drops to £140M but let’s stick with current of £180M

Take todays M/cap £1.2B add £180M , £1.4B

The FT have the enterprise value at £3.7B

Ball park it’s £2.25 a share

Don’t forget this is the FT working it out not any of us randoms

Ha! The Shorts are in trouble

Multiple articles in FT last few days
The influential Lex column

‘THG’s straitened circumstances must frustrate shareholders because the group trades at an eye-popping discount to the sum of its parts. Its beauty business — with highly rated skincare brands and well-trodden online platforms — might alone be worth £1.4bn, says broker Liberum, on an undemanding multiple of one times forward sales. Healthy nutrition, with brands such as Myprotein and Myvegan, could be worth another £1.8bn. Throw in £500mn for its ecommerce technology and the enterprise value would shoot up to £3.7bn — more than double what it was on Monday morning.

So what’s in it for the private equity firm? It could be enticed by the same thesis as activist investors such as Kelso, which have argued that THG’s nutrition business could be a particularly valuable asset. Sparta Capital, founded in 2021 by Elliott Management’s Franck Tuil, also has a stake in THG.

The discount between THG’s share price and the sum of its parts is only growing, Lex notes.

https://on.ft.com/43IDsJ8

Qube more bearish than a THG director is quite interesting