Member Info for Okehurst1

The one area of risk is execution of new USA 1M sq/ft warehouse

But they have £400M of sales @ 58% in USA, mentioned earlier they know the marketplace so element of risk management

Shorts struggling to get volume to close out take profit and reduce their own risk

Some big FCF for BOO to pick up as we can see

£45M to go at for Administration

13% 2022 and more to come

10% 2019

£50M ripped out 2022 already

USA tariffs will reduce to zero over rest of year as they move productivity to South American countries, coupled with reduced test/ repeat times

PP1 that’s even better

They were a whopping 23% ( distribution ) last year

Exceptional is just bunce on top

2019 was 13% !

As they say £15K to £1.5K for a container now to 2022

Costs down 90%

£170M to go at but they will switch some spend to air freight as they target higher margin test / repeat - air freight prices down massively

Even 5% they nick £85M pure cash and bottom line stuff

Nb I don’t like exceptional’s being normalised but I think freight is not an issue post Covid era

£400M of Rev in USA at 58% is decent platform base ?

U.K. / ROW must be less than 48% margin to USA 58% when you work back?

Doing something right out there, if U.K. / ROW matched the margin we would have grossed another £150M - as an example of how good USA compared ( comparable )

Again you can see how the brokers are upgrading, yeah a bit of risk on execution of the new USA depot but they are expanding with some valuable knowledge of the marketplace

Not sure if connected but they said on the Conf call they plan a marketing campaign from LA in a few months time with the launch of PLT ? To coincide with the opening of the USA distribution unit and quick delivery times

Did they duck under the 1% disclosure thinking the deal wouldn’t come off?

They were in over 2% at one time, it was a surprise tbh

The Chairman should let us 35% know what the other shareholders know - be that the 65% or 50%!

It is unfair

Were Apollo prepared to buy Ingenuity at £1B or did they value at £1B if they sold it ?

What context did they give it that value ?

MM purposely chose his words, he didn’t say ‘ buy’ he said value

Or was he buying something back ?

And Apollo inflated the price and quoted that?

It don’t stack that Ingenuity had a price tag of £1B and a deal couldn’t get done? Who was quoting £1B to who ?

Steve

You have a valid point about the Apollo valuation needs to be disclosed

Been thinking about the linked in comments from MM regarding Apollo valuing Ingenuity at £1B ?

We all know Nutrition / Beauty are worth a few £B between them

In what context was as that £1B valuation ? It doesn’t stack to me

Was that the £value they (Apollo) would pay ?

Or the value they put on it if they were going to sell to someone else after they bought THG ?

Is that the missing link to why the deal failed ?

Doesn’t make sense ?

The Chairman needs to explain to the 35% who have not been told about the terms of the offer

Steve, how could he do that legally ?

Any ideas what section of U.K. Company law?

I don’t think he can but if there is a loop hole in the law that you know of ? Thinking we can all use it in business ?

Genuine question btw

Volume is low Terry, MM’s tried to grab stock first thing but no sellers of note - £280k sold / bought

BOO stripping out cost across the operation

squeezing suppliers who have to give up bunce

Test/ repeat and automation

USA going live

Debenhams / Rev B

The BoD looked very confident at the analyst meeting last week and why not with above and brokers upgrading to a buy

Shorts have come down a tad last week and it looks to continue this week, they will be looking at their locked in profits and weighing up the data.

Set up very nicely for us longs

Excellent news for BOO shareholders.

Loads more cost to come out of here

Distribution cost - £170M to go at (10% of sales)

Suppliers - take back 35% cost,unwarranted price increases

Admin cost - £45M to go at (3% of sales)

Taxes - within 4 month to 6 months as USA supplied from Guatemala / Mexico

Automation - head count dropping (£50M of people an other costs in 2022 and more to come )

The list goes one … no wonder broker after broker upgrading BOO to a buy

Shorts are gunna need to buy back, it’s set up perfectly for us Longs at this level

REV B Will be next inflection point

Wonder who will be last short standing ?

How I get my forecast - I think they will take REV B out

Worked on 10% Growth

8% EBITA 2026

Now we are back to Pre Covid cost base

Capacity will be £4B

2023 -£1.75B plus £100M contribution REV B (6 months )

2026. £2.5B @ 8%

Beauty is currently valued at 13X EBITA

General retail 9.3 X

Going with 10X

£2 a share all day long

5 bagger from here for us little PI’s, not much in the market gets us that, decent risk /reward ratio

Let’s look at their 260 Turkish suppliers cost base

2022 to 2023?

Cotton / polyester down

Distribution costs down 90% - containers

Energy costs down

Paid in ££ Turkish Lira down 25%

Looks about right to me and another headwind that is a tail wind - 10% then 30%

If you had a profit from Short trade and you watched below and considered the £cash BOO can pull in from deflation you would have to be tempted to take a bit off the table?

You wouldn’t want to be last Short standing

Thanks Doug

Move in right direction

Stops any losses / no restructuring costs

Reckon we get more of this as On Demand / other non core assets get binned - the ones that cost us £20M last year

No prob :-)

Hi Reardon

Defo would if I could - it’s a pain I cant

It was via a subscription platform that converts voice to data and they publish as PDF , it’s pages long so I can’t even copy / paste

Idea … this is the platform

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BOOHOO-GROUP-PLC-16023307/news/Transcript-Boohoo-group-plc-2023-Earnings-Call-May-16-2023-43867791/

Join for 1 month … £29 a think

then cancel the subs of £300 a year

Well worth reading the Q&A’s

Hope this helps