Member Info for Okehurst1

We dropped to 85p after the Bloomberg piece and steadied at 90p to 95p till 3 days before the termination notice

Upside was maybe 100% downside 20p, anyone could have closed at 70p even after the Apollo deal was called off

Worse case we get a ticket to go again as frustrating as it is MM and the 50% didn’t like the deal and we don’t know what the terms were.?

Just waiting btw

Something has to happen to fund ingenuity

Hi Crowman

3 weeks ago you said thanks for heads up on Bloomberg T piece and got out at £1.12 :-)

We had an almost 200% jump from end of December, even after the termination announcement there was a chance to get out at 70p, plenty of opportunities to manage risk and go again if your trading that is

… last year was down to Covid issues

If you bring back distribution / admin to Pre Covid levels

Strip back blue collar staff costs pro rata to

Sheffield phase 1 - pump into a spread sheet with last years numbers just released the margin well exceeds the 8% and is heading back to the historic 10%

With lumpy capex complete and £4B to go at , fashion and beauty globally

The margin

Yeah this the last of the lumpy bit

Guess they will guide on Maintenance capex especially Intangible SaaS, can’t see it being material as they allude to

If they were doing £4B @ 8% then that’s a different conversation of course

The CFO was quite on the Conf call last week no need for anymore heavy capex -as they will have £4B capacity globally

He actually said the £85M 2023 is lumpy to finish off Phase 2 Sheffield and USA and they won’t require big sums going forward

Nb they indicate these 2 sites can handle £4B of sales a year

They won’t need heavy capex after 2023 - the £85M this year is the end -there will be maintenance but they told us that’s light in comparison

£2B of sales - which were they will be at the minimum with REV B - @ 8% is their figure , £160M

No debt no interest to pay

Bit of rent , they own £130M of their real estate

That’s pure cash…. Then grow across both divisions with £4B capacity fully automated

All yours today for just £500M m/cap , total steal for us PI’s

Wolf

BOO reduced people cost by £50M 2022 - With other stuff

They reckon more of the same this year

Blue collar staff will be at the minimum once phase 2 complete this year

It’s not a full like for like 100% - although BOO expanding into Beauty - we know from Auto/store and THG staff via linked in that their similar size fulfilment centre just opened in USA they can handle 540,000 items a day via the robots

You can see where BOO is going, they may only require Sheffield and USA site 18 months out, fully automated

Outsourcing manufacturing clothing via test / repeat model

BOO focus on brand / marketing

Debenhams platform , their own chemical manufacturing division designing beauty products for the group and global retailers all plugged into the above, minimum people costs involved

Hi Wolf

Agree, shambolic describes REV B BoD who have now gone

BOO took full advantage of the situation, to nick almost 30% for £15M and effectively take control was a top trade

Bob Holt is close to 70 and was brought in to steady the ship and his background is Facilities Management at Mears

Digital market and running a global Beauty manufacturing business is not his skill base, he deserves credit salvaging REV B mind

Am guessing now but the business will need recapitalising which may require a rights issue and dilution for the 38% shares outstanding

Or … back a 25p to 30p a share tender offer to the 38%

The BOO / Management only need 14% and it’s job done, deal with the rest via a scheme of arrangement

Final piece of the jigsaw for Debenhams and plug into USA 1M sq/ft distribution centre and Sheffield same time

BOO then ends up with a £350M to £400M a year vertical Beauty business including chemical manufacturing skills / plant, physical presence in U.K. / ROW including USA and the opportunity to build relationships with those Chains

Debenhams now sells more Beauty lines than the physical stores did, 85% of all brands on the platform, they can then cross sell PLT Beauty products for example and capture every £1 of profit

Ok so BOO own 27%

Management including Allsworth own 32%

BOO CEO John was using the phrases like ‘ since acquiring REV B last week ‘ and ‘ what we have learnt from REV B’

There is a fair chance BOO move for the 38% they don’t own

It cost them £15M for the 27% stake, can’t see them nicking the balance for that but maybe £30M plus ? Gives them control

BOO then become a specialist chemical beauty manufacturer

£200M plus sales a year at a decent margin and higher valuation pro rata to sales

A good 50% of those sales are in the USA selling to Walmart

in the U.K. Superdrug / Boots etc

They pull this off at the cost of above its a class bit of entrepreneurship, add this with Debenhams and start manufacturing your own Beauty products for BOO/ PLT

They gave us the heads up on the Conf call last week

Once the brokers get their heads around this one the buy notes will be upped, REV B IPO was £500M 2 years ago !

REV B - RNS

Revolution Beauty Group plc (AIM: REVB), the multi-channel mass beauty innovator, is pleased to announce the appointment of Derek Zissman as Non-Executive Chairman, replacing Tom Allsworth. Tom Allsworth is resigning as a director of Revolution Beauty with immediate effect, prior to the publication of the Company's FY22 accounts, as previously referenced in the Company's announcement of 13 January 2023. The Company continues to expect to publish its FY22 accounts during May 2023’

But every trade even under .5% Short is registered on Bloomberg T and they had no position before 16th

it was a straight 8M plus sale on day

# to look like a dumb trade

Looks like Parento Partners well and truly messed up taking a big short on results day shorting 8,244,893 shares from nowhere

Starting U.K. look a bit of a dumb trade, especially when other II Shorts used the opportunity to reduce their Short same time

Think we look back at the 40’s range and realise it was a bargain price at the time

Ronnie,

Personal opinion, I think the II Shorts played a top game as they realised distribution costs/ cotton/ polyester prices would affect BOO plus the successful Test/ Repeat model wasn’t commercially viable during prolonged Covid restrictions and could BOO drop their working Cap days and squeeze inventory and to top it off execution risk completing phase 1 and the 1M sq/ft USA fulfilment site becoming operational and BOO a could end up in Debt and negative cash and shorting BOO was a one way ticket and they called it right - some list of risk

However pretty much most of the above has now been mitigated and BOO won’t retest the lows

For us Longs it’s a decent one way bet to 60p - 50% jump from 40p last week - we sit back and let the Shorts do the work as they close out profit, however long that takes

Ovs a Capital event would be all bets off but even without that we get upside here

Morning Gaz

Jumping in for chat

I can’t see a full on squeeze on the Shorts but a steady closing of their positions as they take profits as BOO has hit bottom

Reasons why ?

£170M annual savings in distribution

Working cap days down to 47

£45M savings Administration - £50M head count /other 2022

USA - 58% gross, new 1M sqft fulfilment, build on £400M Rev

manufacturing South America, remove tariffs

Debenhams platform now profitable, REV B will add £200M Rev , £100M of which will be USA Rev to Walmart etc

Plus BOO will control its own chemical manufacturing plant

they can product their own brand PLT etc products and capture the vertical supply upside

Appreciate REV B not official yet but it’s coming one way or another the way BOO are talking

Worth listening to Conf call last week / cross read full accounts, read back to 2019

The Shorts offered access at 40p I am thankful of that - btw I have no problem with Shorts they eventually make me money and they will here as they gently close out / down