Well, 451 trades and 341+ posts later....9 Sep 2019 19:30
here we are @7.6p.
My take on this:
If it weren't for Red Deer the SP would be in the blue. Maybe not as much as we would like but still in the blue. Clearly, once the oil flow testing on Heron-1 turns out to be positive, the SP will jump upwards. A potential Red Deer failure is (by now) fully factored in. To me at least it looks like blue skies ahead!
A bothering fact I reluctantly take note of is that this market is still swamped with short term traders. Once PM proves to be an oil producer I honestly hope that will change for the better.