Member Info for Oiltdr

I disagree wntirely and I’ve spent a career structuring deals. It’s true that you house lincenses in a subsidiary but the parent gives a parent company guarantee and therein lies the problem. They have a lot to do behind the scenes and it’s not straightforward

Even simple things like bank guarantees become more difficult

It’s a bit more complicated than that. It’s quite difficult to contract with an entity that won’t exist in a matter of 6 months - contracting parties want visibility of the trading status and what the balance sheet will look like on the two Demerger entities . I think there’s a lot going on behind the scenes but it’s not quite as simple as sign a load of contracts and split the company in two - it would be great commercially if it was.

They delay derives from the Demerger and how it will be constituted.

Commercial lending is out until reserves are booked.

No player will want a 10pc interest. The only route is to do a farm out which means they can side step the “rescue” farm in the state did. Alternatively the state could expand its interest but unlikely given the commercial phase. It’s a lot to agree in a short space of time farm in wise to be honest.

If I

There is no countdown to year end. They will either be in a position to sign contracts or they won’t be and they will either have permits or they won’t. The drill could be as late as June as delays happen. The only thing to move the dial here is how they finance it and how dilutive is it. That’s the ball game - if you model it in detail you will fully understand this. But to be clear if they do it without CLans here the upside is stellar.

Why is it negative ? The company has stated and implicitly alluded to the fact that they have “started “ to engage in fresh discussions. This was always high risk very high reward. If they do a CLN it’s game over but given progress regionally they may be able to attract another party but it will take time. No major will take a 10m interest or a 10pc state. Majors want 30-40pc and want operatorship. This would be great but I don’t think you guys appreciate how long these take to negotiate

Whilst finance discussions in relation to the bridge may be at an early stage (and in reality they would prefer to not have a farmnout with the state as it reduced their optionality) - if they do a deal with another player it will be a multiple here.

Most mid tier and larger players have no interest in 10pc - they will want 30-40 so their focus is on finding a partner that makes reigniting the state deal redundant.

If they have to rely on a convertible at these peices it’s game over

Yesterdya pump will trap shareholders in the short term based on hundreds of ramping posts. We all want this share to do a multiple but not on nonsense

To be clear the discussions re the farmnout with Timor aside the discussions with other parties are absolutely no where near completion

As I mentioned yesterday, my understanding is havingb spoken with Sunda are that finance negotiations on the deficit funding are at a very very early stage and not advanced

Sorry to disappoint but my understanding is that discussions around the deficit in financing are still at an extremely early stage. The raise was to fund the rig contracts as they didn’t expect funding pre Christmas.

The data room has been open for some time

I didn’t say I was bullish. I’m sorry but I simply didn’t. It’s hard to be bullish when I’m heavily underwater like most.

I did wonder whether this would come to fruition: I don’t think the market fully appreciates the scale of what they have planned.

With that being said those that suggest a link between this and Anchois are miles off. That nugget has yet to be announced.

It’s all about financing.

If the same deal is done as earlier in the year it’s game over for equity holders. They dilution will dilute everyone to oblivion.

It has become a punt on them pulling off a farmnout to replace the state.

The saving grace is that they are putting some additional asset value and prospectivity into the company.

You could be onto something Wiggly…..

Deposit and bank guarantee for drilling rig

My point stands - if they are left with 25-35 post Timor leave farmnout and they have to farmnout again to raise the additional 10 - they will be left with 10pc. Even their upside scenario doesn’t make the economics stack up for investors in at 4x the price.

Your hope value is then in the new ventures - I stand by this.

This side of Christmas